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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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1 hour ago, LakeEffectOH said:

No snow whatsoever (except a few light flurries) here since Monday.  I wonder how much the lakeshore towns such as Mentor & Painesville have gotten since Monday...Anyone have any idea?

I'm in extreme north mentor near fairport and grand river and we've gotten maybe 2 inches since Monday 

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2 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

No snow whatsoever (except a few light flurries) here since Monday.  I wonder how much the lakeshore towns such as Mentor & Painesville have gotten since Monday...Anyone have any idea?

That’s weird. Where in Chesterland do you live? Some of the heavier snow showers were localized but they must have moved through chesterland before moving south down this way. I’m in the far eastern part of south Russell near the Newbury border

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

That’s weird. Where in Chesterland do you live? Some of the heavier snow showers were localized but they must have moved through chesterland before moving south down this way. I’m in the far eastern part of south Russell near the Newbury border

I live about 3/4 miles east of 306 around 2 miles north of 322...far northeastern part of Chester twp.  Looked to me like some of the snow showers moved SSE from west of my area to your area, thus missing my place.  Also, the cells seemed smaller and less organized as compared to recent events.  Looks like the freezing of the Lake might be doing its dirty work.

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9 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

That's a little surprising because yesterday, it looked as the lakeshore was where the bands were more organized.

they were but farther north/east/,  I imagine perry/madison and into (ashtabula counuty) geneva  got a few more inches. 

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11 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

I live about 3/4 miles east of 306 around 2 miles north of 322...far northeastern part of Chester twp.  Looked to me like some of the snow showers moved SSE from west of my area to your area, thus missing my place.  Also, the cells seemed smaller and less organized as compared to recent events.  Looks like the freezing of the Lake might be doing its dirty work.

That's normally a great spot for LES. The snow was definitely localized... it snowed quite heavily under the heavier cells. 

We have a great snow pack out there for a change. Hopefully it can survive next weeks warm up and rain. Maybe we will see a few changes in the models over the coming days. 

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4 hours ago, NEOH said:

That's normally a great spot for LES. The snow was definitely localized... it snowed quite heavily under the heavier cells. 

We have a great snow pack out there for a change. Hopefully it can survive next weeks warm up and rain. Maybe we will see a few changes in the models over the coming days. 

Yep, we can get hit pretty hard here.  Hopefully the warmup next week doesn't do a number on the snowpack.  Next week's storm is still iffy.  The overnight models trended a little colder, but colder trend was erased by today's midday models.  Still have to see what the ECMWF has to say.

These Chicago-Detroit storms have to be watched as we could get a nasty mix of snow and ice or if the storm strengthens, it can blast rain & 50°+ this way.  There is nothing that melts a snowpack (even one that is like concrete) faster than several hours of 50° and rain.

Keep fingers and toes crossed. Lol!

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2 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

Yep, we can get hit pretty hard here.  Hopefully the warmup next week doesn't do a number on the snowpack.  Next week's storm is still iffy.  The overnight models trended a little colder, but colder trend was erased by today's midday models.  Still have to see what the ECMWF has to say.

These Chicago-Detroit storms have to be watched as we could get a nasty mix of snow and ice or if the storm strengthens, it can blast rain & 50°+ this way.  There is nothing that melts a snowpack (even one that is like concrete) faster than several hours of 50° and rain.

Keep fingers and toes crossed. Lol!

Interesting 12z Euro run with a 1040 HP pressing in from the NW. Not certain I can see a low moving NW and bullying that out of the way. 

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20 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Picked up 3 inches since last night. That was definitely unexpected. Looks the arctic front stalled for awhile over this area. Still snowing nicely. This is one of the deeper snowpacks in recent memory IMBY. 

Ya didn't expect that, radar still looks decent too. 

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Yeah this snow made for a fun morning commute. Had 1.5" in Reminderville when I left but it was snow still good, estimated 2" driving up through Solon. Still snowing good now with a little flare-up of lake enhancement in and around the Cleveland area, may squeeze out another inch or so in spots which will push a few locations to 3 or 4" of snow. 

Next week is tricky...a stronger, consolidated low pressure would want to cut. But some models and ensemble members have weaker frontal waves as the Arctic front sags south and have a lot of QPF as snow or ice for northern OH. Let's see if we can reel another one in...

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow very nice. I asked because i saw CLE depth was decent but nothing crazy. We were last that deep in 2015, though did get to 15" in 2018 and last winter.

CLE's snow depth is usually off. Not sure why but it always seems to be that way. IIRC March 2015 was the last time we had a pack this deep. 

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I'll hopefully be on the AFD and long term grids again today. An impactful system looks quite likely. Wouldn't rule out it inching back north, though the overall trend the last 2-3 days has been to sink the system a little farther south. Plenty of moisture to work with so I think warning criteria wintry impacts are almost a slam dunk, question is where that sets up though. A straight rain to snow transition seems unlikely too so some ice and sleet are probably in play somewhere. If the rainy side of the system impacts areas with a deep snow pack that could cause flooding issues too. 

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11 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'll hopefully be on the AFD and long term grids again today. An impactful system looks quite likely. Wouldn't rule out it inching back north, though the overall trend the last 2-3 days has been to sink the system a little farther south. Plenty of moisture to work with so I think warning criteria wintry impacts are almost a slam dunk, question is where that sets up though. A straight rain to snow transition seems unlikely too so some ice and sleet are probably in play somewhere. If the rainy side of the system impacts areas with a deep snow pack that could cause flooding issues too. 

Awesome longe range in the afd. Will be fun to track this event. 

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2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Awesome longe range in the afd. Will be fun to track this event. 

Definitely has been fun to be on the forecast desk the last few days, and a good learning experience...we'll see how things trend the next couple of days. Tried to leave things as open ended as possible today and just give comments on what would happen if we saw the snowier or wetter solution pan out. 

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