Trent

Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

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What a weenie Euro run this afternoon... If only we could lock it in. Regardless, next week offers a lot of potential in the eastern lakes. 

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1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said:

93 hours out, what could go wrong? :lol:

 

A whiff southeast? Great model runs again today. Too far out to get overly optimistic but great to see consensus within the models. 

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So far, morning runs have mostly been good to Ohio.  The Nam is getting a little uncomfortable with sliding southeast.  At 10:1, still looking like a 6"+ event.  

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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No major red flags with today's model runs.  I like where we sit at this point. Would much rather be on the northwest side that be sweating the wtod. A general 6-10" seems reasonable. Sharp cutoff on the northwest side though. 

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Just now, WHEATCENT said:

These models are an absolute joke 

 

snku_acc.us_ov.png

Ya seems like an over correction.  Let's see how the rest of the runs go today.  

12z hrr seems to show lake shore areas getting some enhancement. 

snku_acc.us_ne (2).png

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Ya seems like an over correction.  Let's see how the rest of the runs go today.  

12z hrr seems to show lake shore areas getting some enhancement. 

 

Huge jumps like that this close in are definitely a red flag... I'd put the NAM in the possible but not probable category. Still think 6-10" generally. There is a surprising amount of open water in the central basin so there will be some lake enhancement which could boost totals

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55 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Pretty good looking mean @ 10:1 for the I 71 area in Ohio 

D4EA6188-5E5C-4F5F-B667-700F7662A0D7.png.2267d42d898028c8664a36ddfff37fc1.png

Nice. Good to have a little wiggle room either way.

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Euro looks to be holding and not bumping too far nw.

Euro looked great. Any movement was just noise. Could be more lake enhancement that what the models are showing. Lots of open water in the central basin and with NNE winds the ice should push around quite a bit. 

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I think 8-12" is good for the Cleveland area, may be a tad more if some lake-enhancement occurs in Cuyahoga County or points west with a NNE flow. With an 850mb low track near or just east of I-71 I do think the heaviest axis ends up solidly west of that corridor, and could see Akron getting a bit less than Cleveland and Youngstown getting several inches less and trying to sleet or dry slot. This will be another solid storm for the Cleveland area in a winter that's seen a few already. 

681394271_2-14snowmap.thumb.png.57ea2d4a4ec09b9f54a64b7e1bb9024f.png

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41 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I think 8-12" is good for the Cleveland area, may be a tad more if some lake-enhancement occurs in Cuyahoga County or points west with a NNE flow. With an 850mb low track near or just east of I-71 I do think the heaviest axis ends up solidly west of that corridor, and could see Akron getting a bit less than Cleveland and Youngstown getting several inches less and trying to sleet or dry slot. This will be another solid storm for the Cleveland area in a winter that's seen a few already. 

681394271_2-14snowmap.thumb.png.57ea2d4a4ec09b9f54a64b7e1bb9024f.png

Always appreciated forecast!   I'll be pulling for a slightly E track, but can't complain to 8-12" . 

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Glad to see the euro remaining steady. 

Euro has been rock steady with this storm for awhile. Looks like we'll be several counties away from any potential of any mixing -- perfect spot for the heavy snow. 

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10 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Euro has been rock steady with this storm for awhile. Looks like we'll be several counties away from any potential of any mixing -- perfect spot for the heavy snow. 

Ya was just thinking the same thing.  Riding that line can pay off.   Looks like Nam is better for us, but mixing is close.  

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24 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Ya was just thinking the same thing.  Riding that line can pay off.   Looks like Nam is better for us, but mixing is close.  

NAM seems to be coming around. Any mixing should remain near or south of Youngstown. 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Ya was just thinking the same thing.  Riding that line can pay off.   Looks like Nam is better for us, but mixing is close.  

The old axiom is to get the best snow, you have to be able to smell the rain.

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5 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

How reliable is the RAP model? Keeps laying down 14 or so along  the lakeshore haha

My guess is the rap is a little overdone, but it shows 12+ for a good chunk of northern ohio.  Although.. it's actually close to what the Euro has been showing..

20210215_112630.jpg

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Recently got an apartment over in Perrysburg, OH to complete the rest of the "work from home" phase this year while living with one of my old high school friends. Seems like this storm trended a bit NW here to follow me back west :D. Feeling pretty good about 10–12" here across much of NW Ohio. Will easily be some local totals over a foot. Excited to see how the ratios pan out. Only 16° at TDZ right now, 20 at CLE. I wouldn't be worried about the HRRR showing mixing that far north back in NE Ohio.

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