Trent

Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

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I've enjoyed the light coating of snow that has managed to stick around the last few days. I am not surprised at all with how the early week system trended (north, warm, and dry) and with how the following storm is going to pan out (sheared out and south). Things are likely to continue looking not good as we head deeper into February and the SE ridge eventually sets into place. CPC favors warmth for the entire Midwest and East during the 6–10 and 10–14 day periods, and I would have to agree with that at this point. Euro weeklies also show these warm anomalies for the next few weeks. With Lake Erie still being mostly ice free, I could see a decent lake effect event for the secondary snow belt at some point before winter "ends," but I am starting to think we used up all our winter magic last month. It really is a shame that with so much blocking, the Pacific side continues to fail to cooperate. Recent GEFS runs paint the picture for what the remainder of meteorological winter may look like.

 

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22 minutes ago, amt5626 said:

I've enjoyed the light coating of snow that has managed to stick around the last few days. I am not surprised at all with how the early week system trended (north, warm, and dry) and with how the following storm is going to pan out (sheared out and south). Things are likely to continue looking not good as we head deeper into February and the SE ridge eventually sets into place. CPC favors warmth for the entire Midwest and East during the 6–10 and 10–14 day periods, and I would have to agree with that at this point. Euro weeklies also show these warm anomalies for the next few weeks. With Lake Erie still being mostly ice free, I could see a decent lake effect event for the secondary snow belt at some point before winter "ends," but I am starting to think we used up all our winter magic last month. It really is a shame that with so much blocking, the Pacific side continues to fail to cooperate. Recent GEFS runs paint the picture for what the remainder of meteorological winter may look like.

 

image.png

It's all Covid's fault!:P

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10 hours ago, amt5626 said:

I've enjoyed the light coating of snow that has managed to stick around the last few days. I am not surprised at all with how the early week system trended (north, warm, and dry) and with how the following storm is going to pan out (sheared out and south). Things are likely to continue looking not good as we head deeper into February and the SE ridge eventually sets into place. CPC favors warmth for the entire Midwest and East during the 6–10 and 10–14 day periods, and I would have to agree with that at this point. Euro weeklies also show these warm anomalies for the next few weeks. With Lake Erie still being mostly ice free, I could see a decent lake effect event for the secondary snow belt at some point before winter "ends," but I am starting to think we used up all our winter magic last month. It really is a shame that with so much blocking, the Pacific side continues to fail to cooperate. Recent GEFS runs paint the picture for what the remainder of meteorological winter may look like.

 

We have had solid snow cover here in Geauga county for awhile. Not disappointed about missing a 5-8" snowfall at all. Imagine tracking this storm for a week for that. As we get into Feb my enthusiasm for winter tends to go away. Its pretty remarkable we've had as much snow as we've had without the lake freezing. Right around 60" for the season now... and the two December storms really made the winter for me. 

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13 hours ago, NEOH said:

We have had solid snow cover here in Geauga county for awhile. Not disappointed about missing a 5-8" snowfall at all. Imagine tracking this storm for a week for that. As we get into Feb my enthusiasm for winter tends to go away. Its pretty remarkable we've had as much snow as we've had without the lake freezing. Right around 60" for the season now... and the two December storms really made the winter for me. 

I am beyond thankful for our two big December storms. This current system was never promising, but I'll admit I spent a fair amount of time tracking it (not much else to track this past month).

I much prefer warmth over cold to be honest, and am always anxious for hints of spring weather by the time mid-to-late February arrives. However, this looks to be my last year up north before moving to Atlanta early next year (was going to do that last year but decided to wait until Covid settled down). I had actually already said "goodbye" to winter as I knew it last year when I spent what I thought was my last full cold season experience in Albany, NY, where I was finishing up my M.S. degree requirements/thesis. We only received one noteworthy storm that year (recorded just under 2' over a couple days to start off December; the snow intensity over the entire duration was remarkable). Found it rather funny they ended up beating that storm's total in less than a day this winter.

If the December storms are all we get, I'll liken them to my final storm in Albany in that I'll have great, last winter memories of living full time up north for the foreseeable future.

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8 hours ago, amt5626 said:

I am beyond thankful for our two big December storms. This current system was never promising, but I'll admit I spent a fair amount of time tracking it (not much else to track this past month).

I much prefer warmth over cold to be honest, and am always anxious for hints of spring weather by the time mid-to-late February arrives. However, this looks to be my last year up north before moving to Atlanta early next year (was going to do that last year but decided to wait until Covid settled down). I had actually already said "goodbye" to winter as I knew it last year when I spent what I thought was my last full cold season experience in Albany, NY, where I was finishing up my M.S. degree requirements/thesis. We only received one noteworthy storm that year (recorded just under 2' over a couple days to start off December; the snow intensity over the entire duration was remarkable). Found it rather funny they ended up beating that storm's total in less than a day this winter.

If the December storms are all we get, I'll liken them to my final storm in Albany in that I'll have great, last winter memories of living full time up north for the foreseeable future.

It sounds like you're on the west side.  I recommend coming to the east side during a lake effect event.  Nothing beats seeing the heavy snowfall rates of lake effect. 

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14 hours ago, amt5626 said:

I am beyond thankful for our two big December storms. This current system was never promising, but I'll admit I spent a fair amount of time tracking it (not much else to track this past month).

I much prefer warmth over cold to be honest, and am always anxious for hints of spring weather by the time mid-to-late February arrives. However, this looks to be my last year up north before moving to Atlanta early next year (was going to do that last year but decided to wait until Covid settled down). I had actually already said "goodbye" to winter as I knew it last year when I spent what I thought was my last full cold season experience in Albany, NY, where I was finishing up my M.S. degree requirements/thesis. We only received one noteworthy storm that year (recorded just under 2' over a couple days to start off December; the snow intensity over the entire duration was remarkable). Found it rather funny they ended up beating that storm's total in less than a day this winter.

If the December storms are all we get, I'll liken them to my final storm in Albany in that I'll have great, last winter memories of living full time up north for the foreseeable future.

Congrats on the move down south. Hopefully your last Winter "up north" will finish strong. This weekend is looking more and more interesting... good to have the Euro, Ukie and CMC on board with a track south of here. Still a long ways out though but something to track at least. 

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With the cold temps the remainder of the week it looks like the western basin will likely freeze up. Looked at some webcams and ice is forming around the islands and around Toledo. The Sunday/Monday storm is looking interesting. Nice track for Northern OH... no reason to get caught up snow maps at this point, but most of the models have a trough lingering back over the area well after the low transfers to the coast. 

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28 minutes ago, NEOH said:

With the cold temps the remainder of the week it looks like the western basin will likely freeze up. Looked at some webcams and ice is forming around the islands and around Toledo. The Sunday/Monday storm is looking interesting. Nice track for Northern OH... no reason to get caught up snow maps at this point, but most of the models have a trough lingering back over the area well after the low transfers to the coast. 

Ya I figured it wouldn't be long before ice begins forming.  

Interested to see where the huron band forms tonight. Most short range models keep it in far eastern Geauga.

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20 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Ya I figured it wouldn't be long before ice begins forming.  

Interested to see where the huron band forms tonight. Most short range models keep it in far eastern Geauga.

Picked up just over an inch last night. Looks like 2-3" fell around around the Geauga/Cuyahoga border. Solid snow in the secondary snowbelt with the NNW'erly flow -- which none of the high res models showed. Should pick-up a little later this morning out here but not expecting much. 

Great to be on the northern edge of guidance at this point for the weekend storm (on the Euro/CMC/Ukie at least). Optimism definitely growing for a nice event. 

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9 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

This morning's NAM for lake county Haha 

imageproxy.png

Could be wrong.....but pretty sure our snow comes after the timeframe of the Nam. 

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31 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

This morning's NAM for lake county Haha 

 

NAM only goes out to 84 hours. Much of the snow falls well after that. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the NAM at 84 hours anyway.

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11 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

much weaker and disorganized compared to what is falling in western ohio and indiana. Hour 69 vs 84 

You're right... no snow for lake county! Seriously though... a blend of the models is very nice for Northern Ohio. Way to far out to get caught up in snowfall maps. I don't think the energy has even been sampled at this point. 

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5 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

what is the best ratio, Kurchera or 10:1,? EURO is good. 

Ride the Euro on this one... 10:1. Ratio's won't be great initially... they will improve with the snow that comes from trough that hangs back over the area. Still a few days out but the euro has been consistent.

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19 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Ride the Euro on this one... 10:1. Ratio's won't be great initially... they will improve with the snow that comes from trough that hangs back over the area. Still a few days out but the euro has been consistent.

How's this setup for lake enhancement?   Seems like cle mentioned it in one of their discussions.  

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32 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

How's this setup for lake enhancement?   Seems like cle mentioned it in one of their discussions.  

As the low transfers a trough will hang back over the region... with a cold and moist cyclonic flow it could be pretty good. Not sure how quickly winds come around from the North though. With a NE flow the enhancement may favor areas to our west. 

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4 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

lasts night's EURO is rofl for lake and ashtabula 

 

Model trends were not good last night for the northeast corner of the state. Really shows the impact of the dry air coming in on a ENE wind direction. We'll be watching precip evaporate at is pushes in from the SW. However, we will be just north of the 700 and 850mb low tracks which is good spot to be. Will probably see a similar set-up to the previous storm where the snow on the north side is farther north than depicted on the models. Thinking 3 - 6" is a good call for much of the area... higher amounts the further southwest you are. 

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Model trends were not good last night for the northeast corner of the state. Really shows the impact of the dry air coming in on a ENE wind direction. We'll be watching precip evaporate at is pushes in from the SW. However, we will be just north of the 700 and 850mb low tracks which is good spot to be. Will probably see a similar set-up to the previous storm where the snow on the north side is farther north than depicted on the models. Thinking 3 - 6" is a good call for much of the area... higher amounts the further southwest you are. 

Seems like a good call.  12z Nam was a slight increase from previous runs for us too. General 4-6" across the area. This was the first run with sampling I believe.  

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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2 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

nice run from the NAM this morning 

1612224000-GCkRzBe7A9w.png

Beat me to it!  Haha.  Here's the higher res 3k ...still snowing at the end.

sn10_acc.us_ne (1).png

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1 minute ago, dta1984 said:

Seems like a good call.  12z Nam was a slight increase from previous runs for us too. General 4-6" across the area. This was the first run with sampling I believe.  

 

Good to see an improvement. The snowhole over the northern portion of Cuyahoga and Lake is a bit suspect. I think that accum's will be more uniform than what is depicted by the maps. With the 700 and 850mb lows tracking over Mansfield precip should be fairly robust to the north -- although it may struggle initially with the dry air. 

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15 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

The nam and GFS are the only ones keeping us on the lake with 4-7 any idea why the UK/EURO/CANADIAN keep it south?

Possibly dry air from north winds off the lake?  Not sure, but it is weird the low totals some models show around Cleveland as NEOH mentioned above. 

The NAM is higher resolution, so I'm curious how it and some of the other short range models handle that area as we get closer.  Seems most runs today were a tick up in amounts, hopefully that continues.  

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