rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 i agree, wasted pattern. but this might make up for it. kinda an exciting synoptic set up. high confidence storm! did i say i have high confidence? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 This has been the best winter of my life. Don't know what ya'll are complaining about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00z CMC tries to keep the heaviest precip further south despite the sfc low position as redevelopment occurs.. I don't buy it. Could possibly be having some convective issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here in ENY I've nickled and dimed my way to a decent snowpack after a couple of larger storms in late November and early December. That lone weenie band coming out of VT dropped 4 or 5 inches on me during the blizzard and saved me from getting nothing. Decent event for almost the entire upstate area. These sw-flow type events always come in quick, snow hard for several hours and leave quick too. Hard to get anything over a foot with these, but should be a decent event nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 yeah, I dont wanna hear about hamburg. It must be nice getting an entire seasons snowfall inside of 48 hrs. I'll never know what that feels like. Here in the REAL WORLD, we live for 8"-12" snowfalls. And as far as the CMC, I see no real reason to discount it. Just throw it in the mix and average it OUT. If Euro continues to hold totals to south of the thruway, then I'll know why the NWS refused to throw up Winter Storm Warnings north of the NYS Thruway. But at this point, I guarantee we see Warnings. And snowfall of around 12" from Buf to Syracuse. This set up is a no miss for WNY. All of us. Except Hamburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 yeah, I dont wanna hear about hamburg. It must be nice getting an entire seasons snowfall inside of 48 hrs. I'll never know what that feels like. Here in the REAL WORLD, we live for 8"-12" snowfalls. And as far as the CMC, I see no real reason to discount it. Just throw it in the mix and average it OUT. If Euro continues to hold totals to south of the thruway, then I'll know why the NWS refused to throw up Winter Storm Warnings north of the NYS Thruway. But at this point, I guarantee we see Warnings. And snowfall of around 12" from Buf to Syracuse. This set up is a no miss for WNY. All of us. Except Hamburg. Euro looks great along the I-90 corridor, with .8-.9" from buf-roc-syr-alb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro looks great along the I-90 corridor, with .8-.9" from buf-roc-syr-alb How about Ithaca? Some of the models have had this weird cutoff, where precip amounts drop just west of Ithaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro drops a foot over all of WNY. I expected this. High confidence forecast. Its written in stone for this one. All thats left to do is sit back and enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How about Ithaca? Some of the models have had this weird cutoff, where precip amounts drop just west of Ithaca. looks like around .8", actually has higher amounts just west of ITH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 yeah, I dont wanna hear about hamburg. It must be nice getting an entire seasons snowfall inside of 48 hrs. I'll never know what that feels like. Here in the REAL WORLD, we live for 8"-12" snowfalls. And as far as the CMC, I see no real reason to discount it. Just throw it in the mix and average it OUT. If Euro continues to hold totals to south of the thruway, then I'll know why the NWS refused to throw up Winter Storm Warnings north of the NYS Thruway. But at this point, I guarantee we see Warnings. And snowfall of around 12" from Buf to Syracuse. This set up is a no miss for WNY. All of us. Except Hamburg. I was being sarcastic. Didn't mean for you to take it the wrong way. This looks good guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ithaca looks to have mixing issues on Euro. I dont buy it. You should be ok in Ithaca. Probably 8-12". Maybe a period of sleet. Refer to the Bing Diso (Binghampton NWS discussion). They are VERY, VERY good. And if they don't show mix for Ithaca, I wouldn't expect it. For your region, the mixing probably starts at Bing and heads into northern Scranton area. but not Ithaca or Elmira. Just my 2 cents, not an expert in that area... or any other for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hamburg! I was being sarcastic too!!! LOL. I live vicariously thru your ridiculous snowstorms. This time, we all win! All of WNY to get about a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At this point, I think some forecaster at NWS BUF is just being absolutely ridiculous in not dropping Warnings for Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Wayne and Cayuga. Just ridiculous. Very bad. Tom Nizolio will get an e-mail from me. This is just crazy. Every model now has that region above a foot. Pig headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Ithaca looks to have mixing issues on Euro. I dont buy it. You should be ok in Ithaca. Probably 8-12". Maybe a period of sleet. Refer to the Bing Diso (Binghampton NWS discussion). They are VERY, VERY good. And if they don't show mix for Ithaca, I wouldn't expect it. For your region, the mixing probably starts at Bing and heads into northern Scranton area. but not Ithaca or Elmira. Just my 2 cents, not an expert in that area... or any other for that matter On the euro 850 temps stay well below 0C around ITH and BGM. Unless theres a sneaky warm nose at 800 mb it looks like all snow.. just slightly less from the initial WAA thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah, I like Ithaca and Bing for around a foot. AS I do for the entire WNY area. This forecast is as easly as it gets. Seldom is this the case. Lake enhancement could add a bit north of the NYS Thruway, but busting low is not an issue for this forecast everywhere North of the PA line and west of Binghampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 That is one beautiful storm fellas. Look at the size of that snow shield. Thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like all systems go for this thing on the 0z suite. It's about time we got a nice synoptic system around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Way ova here on the Eastern side of the Lake were getting some Lake snow/enhancement mainly due to a secondary CF dropping south so maybe a few xtra inches before the event takes off tomorrow afternoon. A true Superbowl Mauler rolling its way through. The upside to this snow thats falling is that tomorrows event shouldn't take long to get going as most levels should be saturated already so no wasted precip on VIRGA!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That is a truely monstrous precip field!! Courtesy WeatherTap 4KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Am not liking the convection to the East of the SLP!! This is exactly what LEK alluded to in a previous post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm not worried about the convection. It might just make a stronger storm. Driving it further north. We are all good in WNY. As far as the eastern Lake Ontario counties, I'm not as confident. I dont know how storms of this nature bahave there. I might be worried about transfer of energy to the coast stealing a lot of your energy. Plus, you wont get the help from Lake Ontario on the NE wind. But all systems go for just West of Syracuse to Buffalo for a foot or more. KRoc looking at more like 14"-16" in my opinion. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Am not liking the convection to the East of the SLP!! This is exactly what LEK alluded to in a previous post! That convection would be benign...I'm talking squall line stuff..where the line is visibly outrunning the main dynamics to the west of it....essentially "drying" the aimass behind it, which then gets wrapped into and to the north....so far things look great for us...although, I do note that the models have shaved a bit of qpf up this way, and the slp is a little weaker in depiction in most progs. vs. prior runs of the like. Interestingly, NWS BUF has placed their highest totals in areas WS watches were posted last. I personally would cut the amounts by 20%.....same with BGM's totals....and there, I'd then shift the axis of highest totals northward about 30 miles or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That convection would be benign...I'm talking squall line stuff..where the line is visibly outrunning the main dynamics to the west of it....essentially "drying" the aimass behind it, which then gets wrapped into and to the north....so far things look great for us...although, I do note that the models have shaved a bit of qpf up this way, and the slp is a little weaker in depiction in most progs. vs. prior runs of the like. Interestingly, NWS BUF has placed their highest totals in areas WS watches were posted last. I personally would cut the amounts by 20%.....same with BGM's totals....and there, I'd then shift the axis of highest totals northward about 30 miles or so... Pretty poor continuity between Buf and bgm. Take a look at where those maps overlap near Syracuse. I think Buffalos storm totals look much more realistic. This is a great storm track and will likely over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 THE REAL ACTION WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH Monday AS THE MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER INCREASES TO AROUND 3.5G/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND AROUND 2.5G/KG FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION DURING THE PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THE GARCIA METHOD WOULD THUS SUGGEST 5-8 INCHES OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND 4-6 INCHES FROM THE THRUWAY NORTHWARD. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS JUST WITH THE FIRST PHASE OF WARM ADVECTION FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOLLOWING THE INITIAL PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW...A ZONE OF STRETCHING DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL MATURE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 850MB CIRCULATION. AN EXAMINATION OF TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS SOME LAYERS OF -EPV AS WELL...SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED MESO-BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE WARM ADVECTION PHASE AND EARLY DEFORMATION ZONE PHASE. EXPECT AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH THE DAY. THE FINAL FACTOR WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA TO WAYNE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ROCHESTER AREA. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL ALTER THE CLOUD MICROPHYSICS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE AND RESULT IN LARGER...MORE FLUFFY SNOWFLAKES WHICH HAVE A HIGHER SNOW-WATER RATIO THAN THE REST OF THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL LIKELY BOOST ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER...EXPECT A GENERAL 8-12 INCH ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 12-15 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA TO WAYNE COUNTIES. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A FOOT ELSEWHERE IF MESOSCALE BANDING DOES INDEED FORM. THE LOWEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY...WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE FAR NORTH GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM TRACK...AND WILL ALSO FIGHT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WILL BE SUPPLIED BY NORTHEAST WINDS OUT OF QUEBEC. EXPECT TOTALS THERE TO RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN MANY AREAS...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BY FAR ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL WHITEOUTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY WITHIN 10-15 MILES OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD THROUGH THIS EVENT...ONLY IN THE LOWER TEENS OR HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 10 BELOW IN MANY AREAS...AND 20-25 BELOW ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think WNY will be fine...again, totals there around a foot area wide....CNY, I have a few more concerns (downsloping, possible mixing further north than depicted, heaviest qpf NORTH of SYR, etc.) I think SYR comes in around 10"...BGM about the same...with areas inbetween getting maybe up to 14" (hills)....let the fun begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looking at some of the southern radars vs. siim. radars from NAM, HRW-ARW, and HRW-NMM, for 12z this morning, we (CNY'ers and points east) should note the intensity and axis of returns over MS/AL border....under modeled....see what impact that has up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was being sarcastic. Didn't mean for you to take it the wrong way. This looks good guys! Yeah you guys have had some great/epic LES out there and up towards ART...at least someone has had fun thus winter so far! Personally, Always glad to see our forum members do well! Fingers crossed for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 One fly in the ointment that always rears its ugly head is snow growth. I don't have BUFKIT anymore but I'm always nervous that best lift doesn't align with snow growth region and you end up with lousy dendrites and underperformance. I have no idea that this is the case here, just thinking aloud about what can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here she comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 GEM and NAM go far enough north to make me worried about dry slotting. Going to be really close. This low pressure system has gone north 200 miles in just 3-4 days. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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