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Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm


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County Executive is not happy from what I am reading. Still a driving ban in place in Orchard Park and many surrounding towns.

 

Poloncarz: I'm sorry #BuffaloBills - we have major emergency - that matters more than a football game http://bit.ly/WNYSnowLive  #TWCNewsSnow

 

Yikes.  Guess they didn't think that through. 

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Question for the mets and seasoned weather people, what's the deal with the snowfall totals? I would think that 70" or even 80" was a certainty based on reports through the day yesterday and last night along with the limited movement of the bands. Was it an issue with compaction? Spotters not being able to go out and take measurements? Or are there reports that are yet to come in? Just curious.

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Question for the mets and seasoned weather people, what's the deal with the snowfall totals? I would think that 70" or even 80" was a certainty based on reports through the day yesterday and last night along with the limited movement of the bands. Was it an issue with compaction? Spotters not being able to go out and take measurements? Or are there reports that are yet to come in? Just curious.

 

Compaction and likely just incapable of measuring accurately given the incredible amount.

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Thirty-five hours and counting.

That’s how long dozens of drivers and their passengers have been stuck on the Thruway. At least 100 cars and trucks were stuck again overnight on the Interstate - more than 30 hours after blinding lake effect snow brought the traffic to a halt.

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/stuck-35-hours-on-thruway-he-just-feels-abandoned-20141119

 

onBKLpE.jpg

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It was interesting today watching at times on some of the Thruway cameras numerous plows, blowers and loaders digging the roadway out. One camera (around interchange 56) was focused on loaders digging out several stuck tractor trailers and some cars. Impressive!

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You can already see the next band starting over Lake Erie...Here we go.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THISEVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY...* LOCATIONS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES  THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FROM  SOUTH BUFFALO TO THE NEARBY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS  EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF GENESEE COUNTY AND THE  NORTHWEST CORNER OF WYOMING COUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST  PERSISTENT BANDS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN  THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND THURSDAY.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH PRODUCING  SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
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Definitely a bit south of where it set up, but it captured the idea of a northern cliff from feet of snow to nothing very well.

Did you run it for the event starting tomorrow?

 

Missed this question last night. I hadn't run one then, but I just did. It may be a little too extreme with the amounts (or not); it's using an experimental post-processing snow algorithm I'm working on, and if there are bugs in it I haven't squashed them yet.

 

post-35-0-92771800-1416440086_thumb.png

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Are there any links to a live stream or live forecasting website for Buffalo?

For example... WRUF run this one for NC Florida...http://www.wruf.com/weather/watch-live/#.U6IMl_ldXwh where it's almost like a long running channel that doesn't stop handing out forecasts every 10 or so minutes.

Live streaming station

http://wivb.com/live-streaming/

Live streaming camera

http://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/elmwood-avenue-panos-restaurant

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I think you're exactly right. The magnitude of the event itself prevented it from being recorded properly. The nature of the beast I suppose. Simple math would definitely lead to numbers close to 80 inches.

This is a truly historic benchmark.

Question for the mets and seasoned weather people, what's the deal with the snowfall totals? I would think that 70" or even 80" was a certainty based on reports through the day yesterday and last night along with the limited movement of the bands. Was it an issue with compaction? Spotters not being able to go out and take measurements? Or are there reports that are yet to come in? Just curious.

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My zone for posterity.

 

  • Tonight Snow likely with areas of blowing snow before 11pm, then snow with areas of blowing snow after 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches possible.

 

  • Thursday Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. West wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 17 to 23 inches possible.

 

  • Thursday Night Snow with areas of blowing snow before 4am, then snow between 4am and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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Spoke to some family members who live in South Buffalo. The lots are small and the houses are quite close together there, about 15 feet between them, so there is literally nowhere to put the snow. Snow banks from shoveling and snow blowing are about 9 feet high. They are in the process of hiring people to physically remove the snow from their property. Seneca Street, normally a very busy road, has one lane that is passable and the heavy snow stopped around 12 hours ago. Just insane.

 

I think you're exactly right. The magnitude of the event itself prevented it from being recorded properly. The nature of the beast I suppose. Simple math would definitely lead to numbers close to 80 inches.

This is a truly historic benchmark.
 

 

It's crazy to think that the all time 24 hour snowfall record was challenged (which I believe it was). Maybe the NWS is keeping the big numbers quiet until verified (wasn't it their office that originally verified the Montague report that was later discredited?).

 

Missed this question last night. I hadn't run one then, but I just did. It may be a little too extreme with the amounts (or not); it's using an experimental post-processing snow algorithm I'm working on, and if there are bugs in it I haven't squashed them yet.

 

attachicon.gif38_snow-auto.png

 

No problem, thanks for posting that! As you said, the model had it a bit too far south for yesterday's event and this run seems to be in roughly the same area. Will be interesting to see where it sets up.

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