das Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Here's a pic from the robotic wave glider Holoholo churning around the Hawaiian Islands. The glider uploads to a Twitter feed located here: https://twitter.com/Holoholo_WG/media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle continues to churn WNW around 17 MPH and is currently located about 305 miles ESE of Hilo. Iselle weakened overnight, but a recent satellite pass indicated a convective burst N of the center. Waves near and above 15 feet can be expected on the East facing beaches of the Big Island as Iselle approaches later today. Julio did strengthen overnight and is now a CAT 2 Hurricane and should continue to track generally W to WNW. The latest track guidance has once again been shifted S and suggests that Julio will no longer turn to the NW as the Central Pacific Ridge is stronger than earlier forecasts suggested. A G-IV mission is tasked for this afternoon to sample the upper air environment ahead and around Iselle and Julio. I would not be surprised to see additional adjustments with the future track as additional data arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle is currently traversing 27C SST. By tonight, SST increase to 28C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Mauna Kea webcams and near real time wx station info.http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/current/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 That much rain is significant for the B.I.. Granted, Hilo is one of the wettest places on earth, but the impact of that much rain will cause mudslides all along the only highway that wraps around the Island through the lush rainforests with steep ravines. . Even much less significant systems have caused road closures from mudslides and falling rocks. Hilo Bay and Hilo Town will surely be impacted from storm surge. Much of the population in Kona live in homes built high on the slopes of Hualalai with very steep roads. It will be interesting to se the impacts there with wind and rain.. Ali'i Drive floods anytime there is a gully washer, and with the storm surge breaching the seawalls I expect lots of flooding there. Kohala/Kamuela is like a wind tunnel as it is, between two mountains so I anticipate significant impact there without having mountain buffers. I'd like to see what the rainfall totals are in some of the higher terrain. Some areas may get La Reunion-esque numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 A hurricane in August 1871 apparently hit Kohala on the Big Island and also struck Maui. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1800s.php?Kohala Dr. Steve Bushiner: “Category 3 passed near Big Island in 1871” Quick search confirms this http://www.hawaiihistory.org/index.cfm?t=1&fuseaction=ig.page&PageID=300&returntoname=year%201871&returntopageid=155&PageLayout=Print and http://kona.westhawaiitoday.com/sections/opinion/letters/letters-8-31.html David Longshore also noted they were two very strong major hurricanes in the 19th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 HWRF has Iselle hitting the Big Island as a 75 knot hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 When will the outer bands start impacting the island? This IR loop looks like that might be only ~ 12 hours away or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I have a good website for live cams. Enjoy! http://www.earthcam.com/usa/hawaii/bigisland/waikoloa/?cam=waikoloa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I'd like to see what the rainfall totals are in some of the higher terrain. Some areas may get La Reunion-esque numbers. The higher elevations on the Kona "dry" side receive brief afternoon showers almost daily. Just enough to keep it green. Hilo being on the windward "wet" side is a rainforest and receives significant rain amounts. Any additional rain over and above the norm there is going to be an issue. I imagine the Kona side with the significant population in high elevations with extremely steep grades could have some impact with run off of top soil and perhaps slides. I can see the steep roads sending water into driveways and carports causing issues to lower rooms. Most houses have the living quarters upstairs with storage or Ohana's (apartments) on the first level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Outermost bands getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle is not looking her best on latest infrared loop. Conditions however continue to improve as the shear continues to relax. Less dry air is infiltraiting the core and SST will increase a degree or two along the forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle is not looking her best on latest infrared loop. Conditions however continue to improve as the shear continues to relax. Less dry air is infiltraiting the core and SST will increase a degree or two along the forecast track. Shear is increasing actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Quite frankly, it is probably not a hurricane right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Shear is increasing actually. I thought shear was forecasted to decrease, what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The center is actually visible now on South Shore Hawaii long range radar. Outflow looks pretty good and new convection appears to be firing east of the center. Should also benefit from the diurnal max tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I thought shear was forecasted to decrease, what happened? That decrease already happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Quite frankly, it is probably not a hurricane right now. I think it could be. Recon founds 60-65 knt surface winds. They kept it at 65 knt for continuity probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Northwesterly shear increases to 20kt+ near the big island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 HWRF has Iselle hitting the Big Island as a 75 knot hurricane. grearth 2014-08-07 14-17-56-52.png panel_c_4.png This is a good example of the HWRF's tendency to overestimate TC intensities in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Outermost bands getting closer Gulp! Here we go! Wish I was there to experience my first hurricane. Let's see how this pans out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle is not looking her best on latest infrared loop. Conditions however continue to improve as the shear continues to relax. Less dry air is infiltraiting the core and SST will increase a degree or two along the forecast track. Huh? The shear is clearly increasing as she moves out of the COL region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Huh? The shear is clearly increasing as she moves out of the COL region.I didn't know shear was forecast to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Gulp! Here we go! Wish I was there to experience my first hurricane. Let's see how this pans out.... 148NM ESE of Hilo and closing in according to South Shore Radar. but one thing to notice here as well with those northerly winds. It's 77F/25C in Hilo with the onshore flow. But head to the other side of the main island near Kona, and it looks like there's a bit of downsloping going on at the airport itself as they are 91F/33C. I'm sure they experience something similar most days with the normal northeasterly trade winds, but ust something interesting to notice as Iselle continues towards the big island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I didn't know shear was forecast to increase. Nothing to do with a forecast. Just looking at the loop, the approaching NW cloud streaks combined with the impingement on the WSW flank shows the effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Shear is increasing actually. I thought shear was forecasted to decrease, what happened? I didn't know shear was forecast to increase. To be fair the global models were sort of all over the place on this one. The ECMWF had the shear increasing before Iselle made it to Hawaii, while the GFS kept the shear manageable until passage over the main island. The combination of any shear with the dry air in the proximity of Iselle has been leading to its slow decline. Either way, it will be interesting to see how Iselle interacts with the terrain of the big island. A direct hit will destroy the inner core of Iselle. However, Hawaii is probably not big enough to destroy the entire low-level circulation. Expect to see some pretty significant jumping in the center fixes post-landfall as the low-level circulation tries to reorganize on the lee side of the highest terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Either way, it will be interesting to see how Iselle interacts with the terrain of the big island. A direct hit will destroy the inner core of Iselle. However, Hawaii is probably not big enough to destroy the entire low-level circulation. Expect to see some pretty significant jumping in the center fixes post-landfall as the low-level circulation tries to reorganize on the lee side of the highest terrain. Similar to Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Recon finding a slightly stronger system than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Iselle strengthens a little before its final approach on the Big Island of Hawaii. Areas away from the population centers of Coastal Hawaii (Hilo/Kona) particularly those E facing elevations will likely see a very rough night. Intermediate Advisory Number 31AIssued at 200 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------Location: 18.9N 152.9WABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAIIABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAIIMaximum sustained winds: 80 MPH...130 KM/HPresent movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 17 MPH...26 KM/HMinimum central pressure: 991 MB...29.27 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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