Stebo Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Insane crack of thunder just happened. Sounded like something exploded. One of the loudest cracks of thunder I've ever heard (from a single cell t'storm no less). My sister in-law texted me a bit ago asking what was up with the insane lightning as well. I guess I am missing out on a good show at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 00z NAM and RAP actually look somewhat encouraging for tomorrow, even if we miss out on tonight's activity. It tracks the MCS tonight far enough south to allow for some clearing in its wake by sunrise and the air to rapidly destabilize (2000-3000 J/KG) before the cold front passage. That instability holds right through 21z - 00z too... Problem with the NAM both 12km and 4km aren't handling the current convection correctly and neither form anything tomorrow even with ample instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Flash flood threat is increasing as these storms creep ESE...very heavy 1hr rainfall rates around La Porte, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Problem with the NAM both 12km and 4km aren't handling the current convection correctly and neither form anything tomorrow even with ample instability. Between mid-level drying and the lack of forcing, any potential tomorrow is far from a slam dunk. That said, if we do get ample sunshine and that amount of instability is able to develop (depending on tonight's convection of course), I would be surprised if absolutely nothing happens around the area, especially here on the east side and down to the Ohio Border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 That south suburban Chicago cell is making me very nervous. Hook taking shape, rotation increasing, and turning right. My mom let me know they had at least golfball size hail from that and it was hailing at various sizes for 15 minutes. I believe it as it looks like the max reflectivity passed right over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 My sister in-law texted me a bit ago asking what was up with the insane lightning as well. I guess I am missing out on a good show at home I didn't see a whole lot of lightning (most of it was cloud-to-cloud). Aside from maybe a bit of pea sized hail at best mixed in, the thunder mentioned earlier was the highlight of the storm. It was a old-fashion garden variety storm here. Had a very nice shelf cloud before sunset though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Hoping those I-94 riders will make their way over here without losing too much umph. Always down for some sleep storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Hoping those I-94 riders will make their way over here without losing too much umph. Always down for some sleep stormsSame here. The stuff in central IN right now seems to be holding on for now, even got some secondary cells forming way out ahead of the main cluster.EDIT: nice thunder here now from a small storm to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Follow the supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 The supercell that produced the big hail in Chicago has bowed out and is rolling towards Ft. Wayne. New t-storm warning for 60mph winds and nickel sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 All in all, things have remained fairly discrete so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Any thoughts on if the new day 1 changes much from what day 2 showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Any thoughts on if the new day 1 changes much from what day 2 showed? I'm kinda optimistic and could envision a higher end slight, if not on the imminent update then at some point later in the day. Main threats should be hail/wind, though a small tornado threat as well. Surface winds are horribly veered but there's still decent turning in the low levels with W/WNW flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 15% hatched hail on the new day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 ..MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA AND CINCINNATI OH SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH 40 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE AND HAVE ACCESS TO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR FROM SCNTRL IL EWD ACROSS SCNTRL INDIANA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CELL MERGERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 All in all, things have remained fairly discrete so far. It has been that way all spring yet we haven't really had a tornado outbreak, should be interesting to see how that continues later into spring and early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Probs maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 best cell came through around midnight. ended up with a little over an inch of rain to keep the wet stretch going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 30% hatched hail and 30% wind pulled farther west to include most of IN along/south of I-70 on the 1630z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 It will be interesting to see if we get anything today, DTX will be doing an 18z balloon launch to get a better idea with respect to cap strength and destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Hailing here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 New watch at any time. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1154 AM CDT WED MAY 21 2014AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL...MUCH OF INDIANA...MUCH OH...NRN KYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 211654Z - 211930ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOPOVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITHIN A WEAK LOWPRESSURE TROUGH AND ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE EARLY DAYPRECIPITATION FROM NRN IND INTO OH. A CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPANDFROM ERN IL INTO OH DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVERISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F.CONFLUENT WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE A NW-SEORIENTED ZONE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS AS FAR W AS ERN IL BUTCENTERED OVER INDIANA INTO SWRN OH. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEARPROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL INITIALLYTHEN POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE CONTAININGBOTH HAIL AND WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THESTRONGEST AND MOST SLY-MOVING OF THE SUPERCELLS...JEWELL/HART.. 05/21/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Hailing here right now Was wondering. No hail at my place though. Pretty isolated little cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Was wondering. No hail at my place though. Pretty isolated little cell. Heaviest reflectivity looks like it's basically on top of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 132 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... EAST CENTRAL TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 215 PM EDT * AT 131 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAFAYETTE... AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRANKFORT...DAYTON...MULBERRY AND ROSSVILLE. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 163 AND 176. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 ILN launching a 17Z sounding FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVEREWEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A 17Z ILN SOUNDING WILLBE LAUNCHED TO INTERROGATE ATMOSPHERIC CHANGES FROM THIS MORNINGAND ALSO TO AID FOR BETTER ATMOSPHERIC ASSESSMENT FOR LATER THISAFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Large Severe Watch issued until 2100. Pretty much the size of the meso discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 Hail looks like it stayed sub-severe here...maybe penny size. Believe it or not that's only like the 3rd time ever that my hail peaked just under severe criteria. Usually it's either .25-.5" or golfball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN205 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...* UNTIL 230 PM EDT* AT 202 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT...AND MOVINGSOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...FRANKFORT AROUND 210 PM EDT.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 157. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2014 Share Posted May 21, 2014 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 205 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 230 PM EDT * AT 202 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF FRANKFORT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... FRANKFORT AROUND 210 PM EDT. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 157. The couplet is very very close to I-65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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