Years of Living Dangerously

[ORH_wxman]

But we were discussing what the film was comparing - specifically Phoenix average July maximum in 1050 with the same in 2100 for Fargo. Discussing 1877 to todays temperatures might be a nice diversion, but it's not what the film addressed.

 

Terry

 

 

But you used 2012 to mark a baseline on how much warming Fargo needs....which has nothing to do with what the film said either. 2012 isn't Fargo's normal climate...it is an extreme outlier just like the winter of 1877-1878 was.

[michsnowfreak]

Using July of 2012 is the worst cherry pick possible. Can I use winter 2013-2014 as representative of an average Fargo winter?

 

Fargo can hit 100F now, so it has to be average high. What other metric would they be referring to as a comparison to 2014 Phoenix?

 

Fargo's record high is 114F in 1936.

 

Phoenix has a record high of 122F in June of 1990, if they are trying (which they weren't) to say Fargo will have the same record high of Phoenix in 2100 as Phoenix does in 2014, that's more believable, since its so close now.

 

So according to this film...Fargo's AVERAGE temperature in July is going to jump over 20 degrees in 85 years? Rrriiiiiight.

 

I would LOVE to cherry pick some data using 1950 as a starting point reference. Winters and summers were WARMER then than they are now in the Great Lakes.

 

Seriously though....go ahead use 2013-14 as normal if someone dares use summer 2012 as a reputable example of normal. Because the 2000s summers saw the LEAST 90-degree heat of any decade in 100 years here (Im sure Fargo was similar)...you get a trio of hot summers (2010-12) and all of a sudden summer is the new inferno. Maybe Fargos future winters will be the surface of mars, and summers the surface of hell

[TerryM]

 

So according to this film...Fargo's AVERAGE temperature in July is going to jump over 20 degrees in 85 years? Rrriiiiiight.

 

I would LOVE to cherry pick some data using 1950 as a starting point reference. Winters and summers were WARMER then than they are now in the Great Lakes.

 

Seriously though....go ahead use 2013-14 as normal if someone dares use summer 2012 as a reputable example of normal. Because the 2000s summers saw the LEAST 90-degree heat of any decade in 100 years here (Im sure Fargo was similar)...you get a trio of hot summers (2010-12) and all of a sudden summer is the new inferno. Maybe Fargos future winters will be the surface of mars, and summers the surface of hell

But that of course is not what the film claimed. If you are attempting to argue against their prediction you at the very least should quote the passage you are challenging correctly.

 

ORH

The first site I found that listed a maximum average summer temperature for Phoenix was Weather Warehouse. I was unable to find their, or any other site's Max avg for 2013 Fargo so opted for the closest I could find which was 2012 using Weatherspark.

If you call that cherry picking so be it, I'd rather have used Weather Warehouse for both & to have used 2013 instead of 2012. Perhaps you're more familiar with sites listing monthly high averages around the country and would prefer other sources?

 

 

Terry

[skierinvermont]

I am aware that .26F ~ .144C, but rounding this down to .1C, then extrapolating this over a century gives rather large error bars. 

The fact that NOAA has found North Dakota to be the fastest warming area in the US coupled with the fact that summer warming outpaces all other seasons is probably why this particular region was featured. Cherry picking if you will,

 

The segment that apparently has come under fire starts 9:18 min. and begins with high temperatures given in July 1950. The final image shows America in the year 2100.

They say specifically that high temperature in July in Fargo ND will be in excess of 100F. They are not saying average temperature nor median temperature but rather high temperature. If some find this difficult to fathom so be it.

 

The average maximum high temperature in July of 1950 was 101.3F or 38.5C in Phoenix (Weather Warehouse)

The average maximum high temperature in July of 2012 was 88F or 31.1C in Fargo ND (Weatherspark)

 

Apparently we need a 13.3F or 7.4C increase to reach their projected temperatures by 2100

These don't seem impossible or even unlikely, especially if we continue on the BAU path we're on.

 

Terry

 

lol what a joke of a post.

I thought the year was 2014.. why didn't you use the most recent summer of 2013? Oh that's right.. because it was much cooler. And I'm guessing 1950 was a cold summer in Phoenix.

 

The map and the discussion was about averages... not cherry picking the single warmest summer in Fargo and comparing it to the single coldest summer in Phoenix.  

[ORH_wxman]

FWIW, the average July high temperature for the 1981-2010 climate period in Phoenix was 106.2F and for Fargo it was 81.9F. So that is a difference of 24.3F or 13.5C if we are just talking about average high temperatures in the month of July.

 

 

Fargo's average high in July 2012 was 88.6F, so it was 6.7F above average. It actually wasn't the warmest July though for max temps in the recent era....1988 had an average July high of 90.1F and 1989 was 89.0F. Going further back, the hottest July average max temp on record for Fargo was July 1936 at 94.0F.

 

Believe it or not, July max temps in Fargo were actually colder in the 1981-2010 period than both the 1971-2000 and 1961-1990 periods...but mostly to the 1990s being quite chilly. We've wamred more recently again.

[Msalgado]

I don't think there's anyway to logically defend what the film said regarding Fargo and Phoenix. Things like that are really going to hurt its credibility if they show up in future episodes.

[TerryM]

lol what a joke of a post.

I thought the year was 2014.. why didn't you use the most recent summer of 2013? Oh that's right.. because it was much cooler. And I'm guessing 1950 was a cold summer in Phoenix.

 

The map and the discussion was about averages... not cherry picking the single warmest summer in Fargo and comparing it to the single coldest summer in Phoenix.  

Read OHR's post and you'll see that 2012 was not the warmest out there.

BTW the map and discussion was not about averages, the date was not cherry picked & 1950 is what the claim was based on.

Where is the humor?

 

Terry

[TerryM]

FWIW, the average July high temperature for the 1981-2010 climate period in Phoenix was 106.2F and for Fargo it was 81.9F. So that is a difference of 24.3F or 13.5C if we are just talking about average high temperatures in the month of July.

 

 

Fargo's average high in July 2012 was 88.6F, so it was 6.7F above average. It actually wasn't the warmest July though for max temps in the recent era....1988 had an average July high of 90.1F and 1989 was 89.0F. Going further back, the hottest July average max temp on record for Fargo was July 1936 at 94.0F.

 

Believe it or not, July max temps in Fargo were actually colder in the 1981-2010 period than both the 1971-2000 and 1961-1990 periods...but mostly to the 1990s being quite chilly. We've wamred more recently again.

I can't see how any of the above in any way relates to what is under discussion, other than it making clear that 2012 certainly was not the highest average July temperatures in Fargo.

 

Terry

[Jonger]

I can't see how any of the above in any way relates to what is under discussion, other than it making clear that 2012 certainly was not the highest average July temperatures in Fargo.

 

Terry

 

July 2012 was one of the warmest July's of the past 15 years, why didn't you use the most recent... 2013? Oh, because it was +0.7F above the 30 year average. The fact that you leap frogged last year looks bad.

 

Anyhow, I'm pretty much done with this thread, almost all sides of this forum see this documentary is extremely overboard except you. 

[TerryM]

July 2012 was one of the warmest July's of the past 15 years, why didn't you use the most recent... 2013? Oh, because it was +0.7F above the 30 year average. The fact that you leap frogged last year looks bad.

 

Anyhow, I'm pretty much done with this thread, almost all sides of this forum see this documentary is extremely overboard except you. 

If you have the data for 2013 why don't you post it? I'd be happy to work from that.

 

Terry

[StudentOfClimatology]

If you have the data for 2013 why don't you post it? I'd be happy to work from that.

Terry

Here you go. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fgf/climate/farf6.php

Picking 2012 as a concluding baseline average to 1950 is like a denier starting a data-series with 1998 and ending with 2008, then claiming the globe is cooling. There's no truth to it.

Objectivity builds credibility. Without objectivity, you have no credibility.

[ORH_wxman]

I can't see how any of the above in any way relates to what is under discussion, other than it making clear that 2012 certainly was not the highest average July temperatures in Fargo.

 

Terry

 

 

It is showing that we need a pretty unrealistic amount of warming to reach Phoenix July temperatures in Fargo. 2012 wasn't the warmest, but it was pretty high on the list. It is not an accurate representation of the baseline climate for Fargo.

 

 

I gave some official baseline numbers for both Phoenix and Fargo climates in July...if that is not relevant to you for a discussion on if a Fargo climate can potentially reach Phoenix numbers in July....then that is fine, but I do think other people would find that information useful.

[TerryM]

It is showing that we need a pretty unrealistic amount of warming to reach Phoenix July temperatures in Fargo. 2012 wasn't the warmest, but it was pretty high on the list. It is not an accurate representation of the baseline climate for Fargo.

 

 

I gave some official baseline numbers for both Phoenix and Fargo climates in July...if that is not relevant to you for a discussion on if a Fargo climate can potentially reach Phoenix numbers in July....then that is fine, but I do think other people would find that information useful.

It is interesting - but it isn't what the film was claiming.

I think if we're critiquing the claim we have to at minimum use the same parameters that they use.

 

Student above provided a link that as far as I can see does not address "average maximum high temperature in July", since the figure I used for 2012 apparently isn't acceptable I assume that having a similar figure for 2013 would be. 

 

I don't follow temperatures, particularly not temperatures south of 80. If my 2012 data isn't acceptable provide other data and explain why it is preferable. But please compare apples to apples, not monthly averages, daily highs or other metrics that were never addressed in the film.

 

Terry

[ORH_wxman]

It is interesting - but it isn't what the film was claiming.

I think if we're critiquing the claim we have to at minimum use the same parameters that they use.

 

Student above provided a link that as far as I can see does not address "average maximum high temperature in July", since the figure I used for 2012 apparently isn't acceptable I assume that having a similar figure for 2013 would be. 

 

I don't follow temperatures, particularly not temperatures south of 80. If my 2012 data isn't acceptable provide other data and explain why it is preferable. But please compare apples to apples, not monthly averages, daily highs or other metrics that were never addressed in the film.

 

Terry

 

 

The film showed model projections...using average July high temperatures from 1950 where they showed the climo for 100F afternoon highs...this would assume a baseline state. Say, 1931-1960 averages or something close to that. I don't have 1931-1960 normals right in front of me, but I had the '81-'10 normals...they really aren't too different considering the magnitude of difference between Fargo and Phoenix. There's a few missing years, but 1933-1960 in Phoenix averaged 105.0F for a high temp in July.

 

The numbers I am using are average July high temperatures. I am not sure how that is irrelevant in a discussion of a climate show that discusses how average July high temperatures by 2100 in Fargo are going to be equal to Phoenix in the mid 20th century.

 

 

 

If for some reason, you actually thought they meant the one particular year in 1950 (which would make no sense since that is not a credible way to discuss climate science), the average high in July 1950 for Phoenix was 103.3F. Even if you wanted to use that number, you would still come up with unrealistic numbers for the warming needed in Fargo to reach those levels. And the film said those projections were conservative....which makes it even more astonishing.

[skierinvermont]

Read OHR's post and you'll see that 2012 was not the warmest out there.

BTW the map and discussion was not about averages, the date was not cherry picked & 1950 is what the claim was based on.

Where is the humor?

 

Terry

 

The point is single year's are irrelevant. Actual temperature in 1950, 2012, 2013 or 2090 is irrelevant. What they are obviously discussing is modeled normal climate for the time period. When they run through their animation starting in 1950 it's not an animation of actual temperatures in 1950.. 1951.. 52... 1960... 61... 2005 ... 2006... it's modeled average temperature for the time period. I find it hard to believe you can be so dense. 

Unless you are so stupid to believe that 2012 represents the modern Fargo climate? And 1950 represents the mid-century climate of Phoenix?

The current climate of Fargo is 23F cooler for max high July temperature than Phoenix. That means 23F of warming must occur in the next 85 years.

[GaWx]

I dunno Terry.

7.4C increase for Fargo ND seems way to high.

Ya think? This sounds like Art Bell show type of sensationalizing. I mean if even Friv is saying it seems way too high, that is saying that this is a bunch of garbage.

[AvantHiatus]

Ya think? This sounds like Art Bell show type of sensationalizing. I mean if even Friv is saying it seems way too high, that is saying that this is a bunch of garbage.

Regardless, it's not on the same level as calling for extinctions and venus-like conditions. Not even close...

 

Fargo and that whole area were expansive dry savannas during most of the paleoclimate record, and they were very warm. It would of been like living in sub-saharan Africa if you were around 4 million years ago.

 

Global average temperatures (land and ocean) were 3C above modern levels, that is all you need. Localized effects and dryness account for the additional 3-4C over Fargo during that time.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Fargo is a in great spot for big time down-slope warming coming off the Rockies.

 

In that regard if the inter mountain West gets drier and warmer. 

 

We could see times when those heat pulses come off the Mountains and really horse torch the region.

 

But that would be weekly, monthly, and at most seasonal.

 

The other thing would be snow cover.

 

If snow cover days say dropped in half the anomalies would be inherently much much larger,

[scottmartin49]

Regardless, it's not on the same level as calling for extinctions and venus-like conditions. Not even close...

 

Fargo and that whole area were expansive dry savannas during most of the paleoclimate record, and they were very warm. It would of been like living in sub-saharan Africa if you were around 4 million years ago.

 

Global average temperatures (land and ocean) were 3C above modern levels, that is all you need. Localized effects and dryness account for the additional 3-4C over Fargo during that time.

This. Again, not 'warming' per se, but 'weirding'. Does anyone need any more evidence but our last few winters? Change the average frost and freeze dates two weeks on either end, or have monthly precip. figures change 20% on both ends (or seasonally) and +3c. global avg. will look like a good dream. 

[Jonger]

This. Again, not 'warming' per se, but 'weirding'. Does anyone need any more evidence but our last few winters? Change the average frost and freeze dates two weeks on either end, or have monthly precip. figures change 20% on both ends (or seasonally) and +3c. global avg. will look like a good dream. 

 

I'm not seeing any of that.

 

Actually I'm quite tired of hearing about 'weird weather', its a lazy way to describe variability. 

[ORH_wxman]

Fargo is a in great spot for big time down-slope warming coming off the Rockies.

 

In that regard if the inter mountain West gets drier and warmer. 

 

We could see times when those heat pulses come off the Mountains and really horse torch the region.

 

But that would be weekly, monthly, and at most seasonal.

 

The other thing would be snow cover.

 

If snow cover days say dropped in half the anomalies would be inherently much much larger,

 

 

Snow cover would be irrelevant to July temperatures in Fargo.

 

Pieces like this one are going to have to stop embellishing claims if they want to come across as credible. I think it is what helps feed some of the nonsensical rhetoric on the opposite side of the spectrum. You get one source that gets caught embellishing claims and then some idiots create a perception that all documentaries and all news pieces on global warming are false propaganda.

 

Unfortunately it is hard to rid that perception with the countless blogs and such all over the internet. But improving the MSM reporting on the subject would at least be a first step.

[Jonger]

Snow cover would be irrelevant to July temperatures in Fargo.

Pieces like this one are going to have to stop embellishing claims if they want to come across as credible. I think it is what helps feed some of the nonsensical rhetoric on the opposite side of the spectrum. You get one source that gets caught embellishing claims and then some idiots create a perception that all documentaries and all news pieces on global warming are false propaganda.

Unfortunately it is hard to rid that perception with the countless blogs and such all over the internet. But improving the MSM reporting on the subject would at least be a first step.

It's not just embellishing, it borders on ridiculous. I felt bad for Harrison Ford at that point, if he knew nothing about CC, he's probably having trouble sleeping now. At worst, Fargo will have a July average high of 85℉ in 2100. This is business as usual co2 emission, with all the talk about sequestration and spread of renewables, that day might not come.

[ORH_wxman]

It's not just embellishing, it borders on ridiculous. I felt bad for Harrison Ford at that point, if he knew nothing about CC, he's probably having trouble sleeping now. At worst, Fargo will have a July average high of 85℉ in 2100. This is business as usual co2 emission, with all the talk about sequestration and spread of renewables, that day might not come.

 

 

Where do you get that figure from? Their average is like 82F now...they could easily warm 3F the next 80+ years. In fact, its probably likely considering their location.

[Jonger]

Where do you get that figure from? Their average is like 82F now...they could easily warm 3F the next 80+ years. In fact, its probably likely considering their location.

 

I should have said "Likely" instead of at worst.

[Msalgado]

Snow cover would be irrelevant to July temperatures in Fargo.

 

Pieces like this one are going to have to stop embellishing claims if they want to come across as credible. I think it is what helps feed some of the nonsensical rhetoric on the opposite side of the spectrum. You get one source that gets caught embellishing claims and then some idiots create a perception that all documentaries and all news pieces on global warming are false propaganda.

 

Unfortunately it is hard to rid that perception with the countless blogs and such all over the internet. But improving the MSM reporting on the subject would at least be a first step.

 

I think this is exactly correct.

[michsnowfreak]

The film showed model projections...using average July high temperatures from 1950 where they showed the climo for 100F afternoon highs...this would assume a baseline state. Say, 1931-1960 averages or something close to that. I don't have 1931-1960 normals right in front of me, but I had the '81-'10 normals...they really aren't too different considering the magnitude of difference between Fargo and Phoenix. There's a few missing years, but 1933-1960 in Phoenix averaged 105.0F for a high temp in July.

 

The numbers I am using are average July high temperatures. I am not sure how that is irrelevant in a discussion of a climate show that discusses how average July high temperatures by 2100 in Fargo are going to be equal to Phoenix in the mid 20th century.

 

 

 

If for some reason, you actually thought they meant the one particular year in 1950 (which would make no sense since that is not a credible way to discuss climate science), the average high in July 1950 for Phoenix was 103.3F. Even if you wanted to use that number, you would still come up with unrealistic numbers for the warming needed in Fargo to reach those levels. And the film said those projections were conservative....which makes it even more astonishing.

PHX averaged a high of 100F in July in 1950? How shall I put this....that is a LIE. Here are Pheonix's and Fargos average July high temperatures for the various normals cycles since 1921 (per the quality controlled NCDC #s)

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html%3bjsessionid=14438FF10CC8FC2949FC1B8EDF759E4D

 

Pheonix

1921-50: 105.1F

1931-60: 104.6F

1941-70: 104.8F

1951-80: 105.0F

1961-90: 105.9F

1971-00: 106.1F

1981-10: 106.1F

 

Fargo:

1921-50: 84.2F

1931-60: 83.8F

1941-70: 82.8F

1951-80: 82.7F

1961-90: 83.4F

1971-00: 82.2F

1981-10: 82.5F

 

Fargos July temps have COOLED a few degrees over what they were in 1921-50, NOT warmed.

[michsnowfreak]

Fargo is a in great spot for big time down-slope warming coming off the Rockies.

 

In that regard if the inter mountain West gets drier and warmer. 

 

We could see times when those heat pulses come off the Mountains and really horse torch the region.

 

But that would be weekly, monthly, and at most seasonal.

 

The other thing would be snow cover.

 

If snow cover days say dropped in half the anomalies would be inherently much much larger,

No way are snow cover days going to drop in half. Id love to see average snowcover days per decade at Fargo. After a dip in the 1990s, they increased substantially in the 2000s and even moreso in the 2010s here. Snowcover from 2000 to present at Detroit is about a week higher than the 20th century normal.

[The_Global_Warmer]

No way are snow cover days going to drop in half. Id love to see average snowcover days per decade at Fargo. After a dip in the 1990s, they increased substantially in the 2000s and even moreso in the 2010s here. Snowcover from 2000 to present at Detroit is about a week higher than the 20th century normal.

 

 

We are talking about 2100.

 

That isn't going to last.  Fall will be delayed.  By 2100 months like November and December for the 40-50N latitude band in North America will probably be 4-5F warmer on average.

 

As well as March warming up significantly as well.

 

 

This is November 19th.

 

This is March 24th.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Arctic amplification is already making an impact on the Northern Hemisphere very noticeably in November.

 

 

As fall sea ice and snow cover start to struggle to recover as upper lat ocean temps keep warming 30-60N it will delay the onset of winter.

 

By 2100 this will probably be more like 2.5-4C higher on average. 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

We are talking about 2100.

 

That isn't going to last.  Fall will be delayed.  By 2100 months like November and December for the 40-50N latitude band in North America will probably be 4-5F warmer on average.

 

As well as March warming up significantly as well.

 

 

This is November 19th.

 

 

This is March 24th.

 

 

 

 

The average high in Fargo in December is 22F. You aren't cutting the snow cover days in half there with 4F of warming. The season is too long...the math doesn't really work. You might splice off something like 20% by shortening the season.

 

However, this would probably be offset some by increasing winter time precipitation in that region as projected by models (if we are believing them). Much of that would fall as snow in Fargo. So they would probably increase their number of snow cover days in mid-winter slightly.