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For those who have 'checked out' on winter, ...tracking the season's first warm spell

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Day 5 Euro illustrates and impressive warm frontal penetration for this time of year...

 

post-904-0-83456300-1395599892_thumb.jpg

 

Why the aggressive insertion of milder air? 

 

It's actually related to the mid week west Atlantic bomb, ironically.. Here is the 12z Euros 72 hour 500mb solution:

 

post-904-0-33322700-1395600185_thumb.jpg

 

The very powerful deep layer impulse east of New England will rotate up and infuse its depths into the erstwhile already west -based +NAO.  This large scale synoptic behavior has been signaled by the Euro for 5 days with unyielding consistency, and with no blocking to interfere ... I don't see any reason why the natural evolution of cyclone/graveyard events won't lead to just exactly that... And here is the Euro on 120 hours in the mid levels, and we can see how the lifting/roll-out of the deep anomaly took place, this "pulled" N the N/A escape latitude of the westerlies; leaving at least transient warm ridging in it's wake.  

 

post-904-0-48171700-1395600594_thumb.jpg 

 

...And so on, such that the very most top annotated chart results, with a rather June looking synoptic layout.  

 

The 850s are impressive enough ... bulging +3 to eventually as much as +7C at 850s... but, this type of synoptic appeal of deep layer WSW warm sector often, from my experience, verifies a tick or two warmer at that level (day 5 lead).  Also, this should have a fairly well mixed BL and Poisson depth of some 180mb to work with, so probably would be good for few 70 readings.  

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

Friday and Saturday could be quite warm!  Then a cold front blows through next weekend sometime.  

 

925mb temps up near +8C and 850mb temps +6C to +8C

 

Friday might be better though...looks like front could come through on Saturday

Maybe some rain to snow higher elevations next Sunday...

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

The operational mean is above normal in the 6-10 day. Not sure what Ginxy is saying.

hmm,I looked at surface temps day by day on the Euro compared to climo norm and came up cold,maybe I looked at the wrong data but seeing as the next 4 days are near -20 departure days the total for 10 I came up with -10/15 using climo
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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
Posted

Good morning Tip, you really jinked this errant warmth signal.  The big negative NAO, and Greenland Block is showing on all models, and a -1 to -1.5 neg NAO index and +.5 to +1 PNA index.  To put simply any warmth or signal of it is not happening until last week of April or May, period.... April 1982 redux is more likely in my honest opinion than any warmth.  This emerging warm signal is about to bust into -5 to -10 departure days throughout 90 percent of April.  Tip,  please consider an April thread how it will be more like May 2005, but only more like hell than that month, cause that is what April will look like when all set and done.  April is seriously looking like complete sh*t most of the month.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Good morning Tip, you really jinked this errant warmth signal.  The big negative NAO, and Greenland Block is showing on all models, and a -1 to -1.5 neg NAO index and +.5 to +1 PNA index.  To put simply any warmth or signal of it is not happening until last week of April or May, period.... April 1982 redux is more likely in my honest opinion than any warmth.  This emerging warm signal is about to bust into -5 to -10 departure days throughout 90 percent of April.  Tip,  please consider an April thread how it will be more like May 2005, but only more like hell than that month, cause that is what April will look like when all set and done.  April is seriously looking like complete sh*t most of the month.

 

Warm spell --.

 

not saying it won't get cold. I still see it out right modeled, several days about 0C at 850....  That's warmer than what we've be experience. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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There appears to be typical stochastic behaviors going on wrt to modeling, typical for spring...  

 

Take the 00z GGEM... hard to believe it would be correct re details, ...not just because the model is a piece of shyster, but it has a potential flood threat that ends as a protracted moderate snow storm ...particularly in CNE, then ... a day later it's in the lower 60s for a couple of days, before a slow moving bowling ball turns conditions wintry again in the extended...  Up down up down... wow. 

 

Then there is the 00z Euro, which pretty much 86's this winter and heads us into a spring, aloft, while plaguing BD air masses at the surface. By and large, a quiescent run by comparison. ...sort of exemplifying that the "warm spell" signal has returned aloft; or perhaps was never gone, just merely interluded by this seasonal corrective QPF event that's dooming the end of the weekend.. Either way, that surface synopsis sucks giant donkey balls with a rotted polar high passing painfully slow N-NE of Maine, promising to never realize what would otherwise be mid 60s. Not sure I buy it all, anyway. The American -derived teleconnectors flag a cool and potentially stormy first half of the month, so this run's non-eventful ennui sort of sets in the face of that.  GGEM fits, but its plausibly dumb lucky and not right about details, regardless...

 

Again...spring modeling...oy vay!  Either could be correct when the vagaries of the wind get additionally jostled around by the usurping of the returning solar insolation; then on top, combining this weird eerie hemispheric-scaled beady eyed obsession of keeping North America cold. This has not been the case, globally. I mentioned this before, but of course ... given the purview of the subject matter, it did not seem to garner much acknowledgement: While we were enjoying a bitter, record breaking cold January from Chicago to Boston back in January, that month wound up being the 4th Earth's warmest January since the evolution of modern science brought about record keeping.  We've really been living in delusion enabled by persistent local scoped anomaly. Kind of reminds me how my cat used to hide by sticking her head in a paper bag, while her ass and tail were entirely exposed.  In her mind, that was reality, save inside that bag... 

 

Anyway, the purpose of this post was going to be that the warm spell originally signaled was supposed to be today, tomorrow and Sunday.  Now of course, we only get partially involved with a diffused wfropa today, that may push highs toward 60 later on, sun depending. We see that happening in SE zones, though NW zones are being stubborn -- perhaps some under the radar CAD up there.

 

I'll just go on record as saying that gray skied, howling dry N isallobaric wind blast with temperatures in the upper 20s the other day was probably the worst sensible weather day I can recall since the infamous May of 2005.  And it was rubbed in, too... I left my reading glasses at home, so had to zip over to a CVS. But what that did was erase my memory of where I parked my car upon my return.  Mind you, the parking lot at my office is ginormous!  The complex it serves is like the Borg cube in size, filled with organizations and their employ.  All of whom use this lot, such that having to park a quarter mile or more of a walk away is not uncommon.  Having to return to the office mid morning DEFINITELY meant that I was up around a half mile's hike.  ..Still not a big deal for me, but (shame on me) despite the harsh wind chill, I did not don in a winter coat, and was just in my office apparel.  Typically this is fine, unless it's like blizzard out side.  I just crank the car's heater, then move swiftly through the maze of automobiles en route to the front entrance, no problem... there in 4 or 5 minutes, warm again.  But when I piled out of the office around 5, when said pulse of winds really accelerated ...like, it waited for me to emerge?  Jesus H Christ was it cold! And, I could only fathom the original position where I parked in the early morning, NOT where I parked when I returned.  

 

I think that is commonly referred to as a "Senior moment?"   Perhaps Jerry or Steve can confirm this experience.  Or perhaps I was just heavily distracted by daily work agenda and merely forgot to take a mental snap shot of where I parked my f car.  Either way, neither served me any mercy whatsoever, as I meandered, scantily clad for single digit wind chills, aimlessly around that ginormous lot for like 20 minutes of physical pain and anguish.  Omg, I wouldn't wish that on anyone ... not even Steve.

 

I tell you... I love winter like the next weather bug, and November, December?  Yeah, rock on!  But not at the end March people. F this S! 

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Mikehobbyst

Mikehobbyst

Posted
Posted

There appears to be typical stochastic behaviors going on wrt to modeling, typical for spring...  

 

Take the 00z GGEM... hard to believe it would be correct re details, ...not just because the model is a piece of shyster, but it has a potential flood threat that ends as a protracted moderate snow storm ...particularly in CNE, then ... a day later it's in the lower 60s for a couple of days, before a slow moving bowling ball turns conditions wintry again in the extended...  Up down up down... wow. 

 

Then there is the 00z Euro, which pretty much 86's this winter and heads us into a spring, aloft, while plaguing BD air masses at the surface. By and large, a quiescent run by comparison. ...sort of exemplifying that the "warm spell" signal has returned aloft; or perhaps was never gone, just merely interluded by this seasonal corrective QPF event that's dooming the end of the weekend.. Either way, that surface synopsis sucks giant donkey balls with a rotted polar high passing painfully slow N-NE of Maine, promising to never realize what would otherwise be mid 60s. Not sure I buy it all, anyway. The American -derived teleconnectors flag a cool and potentially stormy first half of the month, so this run's non-eventful ennui sort of sets in the face of that.  GGEM fits, but its plausibly dumb lucky and not right about details, regardless...

 

Again...spring modeling...oy vay!  Either could be correct when the vagaries of the wind get additionally jostled around by the usurping of the returning solar insolation; then on top, combining this weird eerie hemispheric-scaled beady eyed obsession of keeping North America cold. This has not been the case, globally. I mentioned this before, but of course ... given the purview of the subject matter, it did not seem to garner much acknowledgement: While we were enjoying a bitter, record breaking cold January from Chicago to Boston back in January, that month wound up being the 4th Earth's warmest January since the evolution of modern science brought about record keeping.  We've really been living in delusion enabled by persistent local scoped anomaly. Kind of reminds me how my cat used to hide by sticking her head in a paper bag, while her ass and tail were entirely exposed.  In her mind, that was reality, save inside that bag... 

 

Anyway, the purpose of this post was going to be that the warm spell originally signaled was supposed to be today, tomorrow and Sunday.  Now of course, we only get partially involved with a diffused wfropa today, that may push highs toward 60 later on, sun depending. We see that happening in SE zones, though NW zones are being stubborn -- perhaps some under the radar CAD up there.

 

I'll just go on record as saying that gray skied, howling dry N isallobaric wind blast with temperatures in the upper 20s the other day was probably the worst sensible weather day I can recall since the infamous May of 2005.  And it was rubbed in, too... I left my reading glasses at home, so had to zip over to a CVS. But what that did was erase my memory of where I parked my car upon my return.  Mind you, the parking lot at my office is ginormous!  The complex it serves is like the Borg cube in size, filled with organizations and their employ.  All of whom use this lot, such that having to park a quarter mile or more of a walk away is not uncommon.  Having to return to the office mid morning DEFINITELY meant that I was up around a half mile's hike.  ..Still not a big deal for me, but (shame on me) despite the harsh wind chill, I did not don in a winter coat, and was just in my office apparel.  Typically this is fine, unless it's like blizzard out side.  I just crank the car's heater, then move swiftly through the maze of automobiles en route to the front entrance, no problem... there in 4 or 5 minutes, warm again.  But when I piled out of the office around 5, when said pulse of winds really accelerated ...like, it waited for me to emerge?  Jesus H Christ was it cold! And, I could only fathom the original position where I parked in the early morning, NOT where I parked when I returned.  

 

I think that is commonly referred to as a "Senior moment?"   Perhaps Jerry or Steve can confirm this experience.  Or perhaps I was just heavily distracted by daily work agenda and merely forgot to take a mental snap shot of where I parked my f car.  Either way, neither served me any mercy whatsoever, as I meandered, scantily clad for single digit wind chills, aimlessly around that ginormous lot for like 20 minutes of physical pain and anguish.  Omg, I wouldn't wish that on anyone ... not even Steve.

 

I tell you... I love winter like the next weather bug, and November, December?  Yeah, rock on!  But not at the end March people. F this S! 

It was windy in NYC right after the massive late March CC and Nova Scotia storm.  Here the 36 degrees in the full sun felt marginally warm in any direct sun at 1:00 PM.  The 49-55 we are having now feels "warm" in direct sun.  The max solar lighting is just starting to look like very late summer all of a sudden at 1 PM.  It is like we broke a threshold right after that big storm, of it no longer feeling bitter cold at noon in NYC.

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