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March 25-27 2014 potential storm...


famartin

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Snowgoose from the NYC thread on the inverted trough and why it won't work out down here as modeled

 

"They will never get hit by the inverted trof, if that thing verifies it'll end up here or NE of here, the only way that region gets hit by inverted trofs is by systems that track closer to the coast, they usually get systematically involved inverted trofs, not inverted trofs on their own."

 

 

Ray may know this but I feel like there was an inverted trough that actually jackpotted in PHL, maybe Feb 2008?

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Snowgoose from the NYC thread on the inverted trough and why it won't work out down here as modeled

 

"They will never get hit by the inverted trof, if that thing verifies it'll end up here or NE of here, the only way that region gets hit by inverted trofs is by systems that track closer to the coast, they usually get systematically involved inverted trofs, not inverted trofs on their own."

 

 

Ray may know this but I feel like there was an inverted trough that actually jackpotted in PHL, maybe Feb 2008?

 

Philly can get them, it was Feb 09.  That said, I won't be on the "inverted trough" bandwagon til no earlier than tomorrow 12Z.

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Philly can get them, it was Feb 09.  That said, I won't be on the "inverted trough" bandwagon til no earlier than tomorrow 12Z.

definitely agree, it is a longshot at best.  The Feb 09 event had some heavy rates, if i remember correctly it was about 8 inches in a 4-5 hour period.  

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I still got 68.6" without it ;).

 

Ha, no complaints here either...March does leave a bitter taste in my mouth...feel like we left a ton of snow on the table. We missed 6-12" last week in DC/S NJ..We have a 960mb low passing near us with cold air available and we're getting flurries lol. 

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Ha, no complaints here either...March does leave a bitter taste in my mouth...feel like we left a ton of snow on the table. We missed 6-12" last week in DC/S NJ..We have a 960mb low passing near us with cold air available and we're getting flurries lol. 

it's not really all that near us, all things considered.  and it isnt like this was ever a hit.

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Other than eastern NE, the places with the best shot at some decent accum(few inches) may be parts of Delmarva and Southern/eastern NJ. This may occur as the coastal just gets going with some good frontogensis for a time, and before the storm consolidates and bombs and the precip shield contracts as it moves further north. The Canadian and NAM hinting at this, and to some extent the GFS.

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Lol, typical 18z NAM run a day before a storm. Ignore. 

I really dont buy into the 18z part, but I agree that the NAM needs to be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism.  I feel like I have seen the NAM blow up and bring coastals too far west for a run or two at this range.  

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