Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Thanks for the input. Yeah I'm usually bearish on snow in mid-March...almost anything can go wrong. That said, I felt the same way before 3/27/13, and ended up with 2.5" covering all surfaces including a busy street. This airmass is similar to that one..so I don't know what to think yet. I think if we can get this to fall at night we have a good shot at grass/deck accums. it was very good timing on 3/25..I got 2.25" and street stickage at sea level and 33 degrees...timing here is not as good..but still not bad...it doesnt get dark until almost 8 which kind of sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM is really dry and pushes everything off the the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GGEM is really dry and pushes everything off the the east Central VA jackpot. GFS/GGEM both moved south with heaviest precip. Brutal cutoff on the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 According to these CMC has changeover at 60 hr or around 8PM...very little precip before then but as said, very little in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 here's the snow map to see where the heavy stuff sets up with CMC....erm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 12z runs made some subtle long wave changes that affected the way our s/w manifests. Initially, you'll look at the models and say "more energy is hanging back/split off" and really that would be a fine analysis. The issue here is that the subtle changes in the western ridge affects the jet across the northern-tier. Between this process and the slower exit of the PV (which by itself wouldn't be a big deal...but it is a killer in combination with broadening western ridge), the flow speeds up, reducing partial phasing of s/w. Here's the good news before you start to compare how amazingly annoying that it was the 12z runs 2Fridays ago that also started to shift the storm: that 3/3 system was being punished by a much more wicked PV and lobe dropping down from Ontario. In fact, it pushed in considerable dry and cold air advection throughout the precipitation shield, reducing accumulating snow to just the convergence zones post-initial thump WAA. In this case, despite the 12z shifts, we are still seeing frontogenetic forcing within general WAA across MA. This means, old rules apply about "edge of QPF shield" since that is conveniently placed along the 850mb deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 12z GEFS look a lil bit slower with the QPF... so the heaviest is between 8pm and 2am? Its hr 66 with DCA in the 0.25+" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The 12z runs made some subtle long wave changes that affected the way our s/w manifests. Initially, you'll look at the models and say "more energy is hanging back/split off" and really that would be a fine analysis. The issue here is that the subtle changes in the western ridge affects the jet across the northern-tier. Between this process and the slower exit of the PV (which by itself wouldn't be a big deal...but it is a killer in combination with broadening western ridge), the flow speeds up, reducing partial phasing of s/w. Here's the good news before you start to compare how amazingly annoying that it was the 12z runs 2Fridays ago that also started to shift the storm: that 3/3 system was being punished by a much more wicked PV and lobe dropping down from Ontario. In fact, it pushed in considerable dry and cold air advection throughout the precipitation shield, reducing accumulating snow to just the convergence zones post-initial thump WAA. In this case, despite the 12z shifts, we are still seeing frontogenetic forcing within general WAA across MA. This means, old rules apply about "edge of QPF shield" since that is conveniently placed along the 850mb deformation zone. Thanks,, HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro makes the same shift, putting the deformation zone over you guys. If things hold and we don't keep trending in the wrong way, this could be another nice event for the Mid Atlantic. Amazing, really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro is ok, if for nothing other than it is delayed so more precip falls into cold air.....the good precip doesnt get in here until probably 11pm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro makes the same shift, putting the deformation zone over you guys. If things hold and we don't keep trending in the wrong way, this could be another nice event for the Mid Atlantic. Amazing, really... yes...Frankly speaking the Euro is the best run for DC metro of any of the models by a mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Verbatim the euro looks a bit dry and south but I totally see what hm just explained. It's a good run and a small shift come game time is a pretty good hit at optimum timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It seems colder at the surface than 00z. 32 line well south of DCA at 2AM Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Euro makes the same shift, putting the deformation zone over you guys. If things hold and we don't keep trending in the wrong way, this could be another nice event for the Mid Atlantic. Amazing, really... Not to be IMBY but how is it for Baltimore? Is it CMC like in cutoff between just south of DC and Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 yes...Frankly speaking the Euro is the best run for DC metro of any of the models by a mile It's really cold too...i can't see other levels, but 850's and sfc well south of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not to be IMBY but how is it for Baltimore? Is it CMC like in cutoff between just south of DC and Baltimore? There is a cutoff to heavier precip. Baltimore is .6-.7 total. DCA .8-.9, 1-1.25" strip is similar to ggem. Right through central va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Verbatim the euro looks a bit dry and south but I totally see what hm just explained. It's a good run and a small shift come game time is a pretty good hit at optimum timing. It is way better than 0z for me and you which basically threw cold moisture over a warm dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not to be IMBY but how is it for Baltimore? Is it CMC like in cutoff between just south of DC and Baltimore? It's fine for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It is way better than 0z for me and you which basically threw cold moisture over a warm dome I personally love the run verbatim. The nice 1"+ stripe is well within range to move north or simply expand larger. Could be some good bands and rates setting up for a lot of us imo. Things are looking better today. I like the later start of the good stuff as much as anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yes...Frankly speaking the Euro is the best run for DC metro of any of the models by a mile Yeah this is a good way to get accumulating snow into DC. You get a nice shot along the deform, then it's dark...but let's hope today's 12z runs were not a developing "trend" but just a total "ingest" to make them all see the correct evolution of s/w. Calling today a "trend" is actually incorrect, really, if you think about the last few days. Verbatim the euro looks a bit dry and south but I totally see what hm just explained. It's a good run and a small shift come game time is a pretty good hit at optimum timing. The "front-end" with the deformation / 850 convergence is the main show later Sunday. Good timing to get heavier stuff first and then lighter stuff after, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It is way better than 0z for me and you which basically threw cold moisture over a warm dome I personally love the run verbatim. The nice 1"+ stripe is well within range to move north or simply expand larger. Could be some good bands and rates setting up for a lot of us imo. Things are looking better today. I like the later start of the good stuff as much as anybody. yeah hard to say where that best axis will finally end up -- but it's about as good of a compromise between QPF and cold as we can hope for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 .40 - .50 falls between 2am-8am for almost all of us from balt southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think we'd all more or less give up the "heaviest" precip (but still good amounts) but be situated in the good deformation area. Nice to see that the bulk of the precip is also holding off until it's colder. For those that are able to see the Euro, anything interesting concerning the ULL on Monday? I know we were focusing more on hoping we'll get the WAA stuff Sunday night and take the "bowling ball" as a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's really cold too...i can't see other levels, but 850's and sfc well south of the area it's way colder, and delayed...it's about twice as wet between 2am and 8am as 0z was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 .40 - .50 falls between 2am-8am for almost all of us from balt southward. Beautiful Bob, thanks. You guys have taken over for Philly as the "spot" to end the winter. El Nino must be approaching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 The gradient is striking this run. 0.4 Mason Dixon to 1.0 southern Prince William/Southern Fairfax. DCA and IAD are 0.8. (total qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I think we'd all more or less give up the "heaviest" precip (but still good amounts) but be situated in the good deformation area. Nice to see that the bulk of the precip is also holding off until it's colder. For those that are able to see the Euro, anything interesting concerning the ULL on Monday? I know we were focusing more on hoping we'll get the WAA stuff Sunday night and take the "bowling ball" as a bonus. we get about 0.25" between 8am and 4pm.....verbatim the euro is ludicrously cold...25 degrees for DC in the middle of the afternoon....we'll have to see about that,.,.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It's around 6z, too, that the 850mb convergence zone passes south through the area with wind minimum at 700mb too. Also, there's a brief but double jet structure for divergence! Not bad...and it's overnight with a good high to the north. So...okay then. lol Edit...scratch that about the divergence. That happens much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we get about 0.25" between 8am and 4pm.....verbatim the euro is ludicrously cold...25 degrees for DC in the middle of the afternoon....we'll have to see about that,.,.lol Even if those temps verify, which I don't think will happen, no way that would accumulate in the urban or suburban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 we get about 0.25" between 8am and 4pm.....verbatim the euro is ludicrously cold...25 degrees for DC in the middle of the afternoon....we'll have to see about that,.,.lol Thanks. That actually sounds pretty good for the daytime Monday amount. Won't be huge, but keep things "pretty" after whatever falls overnight. I don't buy 25 degrees during the day on St. Paddy's (guessing you can't buy it either), though it would be pretty neat! Maybe closer to low 30s DC proper and closer in 'burbs, if we keep thick cloud cover. DCA did manage a cold 39 for the high on 3-25 last year, and that after the snow was done falling (I recall it getting kind of "bright" in the afternoon too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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