cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 +1 18z RAP even more nuts. Now taking it down to 994mb over nw KS. Showing 993 on wxbell lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1% Well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Pretty good consistency. I think the last key question is going to be moisture transport. Even Will said it in the NE thread, GEFS have been useless. Just mimicking the OP. I wouldn't use their ostensible consistency to negate the possibility of a EURO/GEM like solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 WPC Thoughts MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD230 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014VALID MAR 10/1200 UTC THRU MAR 14/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM GLOBAL ANDTHE ECMWF...DEEP LOW CENTER/NEG-TILTED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.S.THROUGH THURS...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...THROUGH WEDBLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET...FOR THURSCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEOVERALL...THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS REASONABLY LOW REGARDING THISEVOLVING STORM SYS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOWA DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEWDAYS...WHICH WILL DRIVE A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SFC LOW CENTER EASTOUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TUES AND THEN RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SRN NEWENGLAND BY WED NIGHT. THE STORM SYS SHOULD EXIT INTO SERN CANADAON THURS. A WIDESPREAD AND RATHER HIGH IMPACT PCPNEVENT...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCWITH THE EVOLVING DEEP LOW CENTER. PLS CONSULT THE LATEST QPFPFDAND QPFHSD FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THE PCPN IMPACTS.THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 12Z NAM ARE FASTER AND RELATIVELY WEAKERCOMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THEEVOLVING SFC LOW. THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET AND NOW THE 12Z GFS AREA BIT SLOWER. THE 12Z UKMET AND ESP THE 12Z GFS NOT ONLY TRENDEDSLOWER...BUT ARE ALSO NOTABLY STRONGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. THE12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT TUES ANDWED...BUT THEREAFTER THE GFS BECOMES VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH ITSAMPLIFICATION OF THE NEG-TILTING TROUGH...AND SUGGESTS A STRONGCLOSED LOW CENTER CROSSING THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND. THE GFSWOULD APPEAR TO BE A BIT TOO STRONG BY THURS AND TOO SLOW. BYTHURS...THE ECMWF/UKMET CAMP SPLITS THE DIFF BETWEEN THESTRONGER/SLOW GFS AND THE FASTER/RELATIVELY WEAKER NAM/GEM GLOBAL.BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND SPREAD...WILL FAVOR AGFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH WED...AND THEN LEAN TWD A ECMWF/UKMETBLEND FOR THURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 IWX has hoisted a Watch. 4-8" with gusty winds. LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-STARKE-MARSHALL-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON331 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014 /231 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAYNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW IS FORECASTTO TAPER OFF BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON.* SNOW ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF A INCH PERHOUR...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WILL LIKELY MAKE FORDIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 weenie nub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 New SREF mean (15z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 New SREF mean (15z). Pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 A chance at a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 doesn't look like the SREF are ready to back down, still ~6" at ORD will be interesting to see if it's a tighter cluster or still a feast/famine scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM looks a bit stronger so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 A chance at a biggie. Looks like they got my 50 bucks to circle YYZ in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Clusters: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 15z SREF mean up to 13.7" for YYZ. The number of loco (20"+) ARN members has increased. Even the NMM members which were essentially whiffs show about 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 18z NAM headed stronger and a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 WSW in effect: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA...ORLEANS...ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING COUNTIES.* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 15z SREF mean up to 13.7" for YYZ. The number of loco (20"+) ARN members has increased. Even the NMM members which were essentially whiffs show about 3-4". I'd be careful with the SREF at this range. They like to run north, sometimes way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 doesn't look like the SREF are ready to back down, still ~6" at ORD will be interesting to see if it's a tighter cluster or still a feast/famine scenario got the answer mean up to 7" but highly skewed by the wet ARW which when removed drops to 4" which is in line with the GFS and my thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Down to 993.8 at hr 27 in nw mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NWS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'd be careful with the SREF at this range. They like to run north, sometimes way... Agreed. Max swath north of DTW per 15z SREFS is not on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM definitely doubling down on its outlier status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Down to 993.8 at hr 27 in nw mo Definitely looks a bit stronger aloft. H7 trough digging more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 moneyman pulling the coup? stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Agreed. Max swath north of DTW per 15z SREFS is not on the table. I'd be pretty shocked if that happened. For the early March storm, they were an abomination for IND with temp forecasting. 48-60 hours out, SREF mean ended up 20 degrees too warm for the storm. But, that was a different storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Definitely looks a bit stronger aloft. H7 trough digging more. Yep looks much nicer at H7 at 27hr compared to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 moneyman pulling the coup? stay tuned! I don't think he's in here posting model runs for his health. You know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.