Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm just done, all I want right now is a big cutter so that I can get rid of this rotting snow pack and start getting my lawn ready for Spring. Me too. I almost wish they'd shut down this board for a day or two and give us all a break. I'm too addicted to give it up cold turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robbers079 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Anyone discounting anything due to the models obviously hasn't learned from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Four Euro ensemble members had big hits last night at KLGA inside of 5 days. 9 members had at least 6" of snow. 11 members were dry or showed no snow. Quite a few members had hits post day 8. Perhaps one could sneak up on us a bit in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Four Euro ensemble members had big hits last night at KLGA inside of 5 days. 9 members had at least 6" of snow. 11 members were dry or showed no snow. Quite a few members had hits post day 8. Perhaps one could sneak up on us a bit in the next week. GFS and Euro show this threat. Euro and GFS agree on a stormy pattern ahead. Now does that translate to snow? We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm just done, all I want right now is a big cutter so that I can get rid of this rotting snow pack and start getting my lawn ready for Spring. Amen! When i get to march 1st no more snow and bring on the warm weather and green grass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Amen! When i get to march 1st no more snow and bring on the warm weather and green grass! You guys get sick of snow early. We still average around 6 inches of snow in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You guys get sick of snow early. We still average around 6 inches of snow in March. It's all relative, we've had so much snow already this season in this area, and a lot of cold, so a lot of us are about done. That doesn't mean that I won't root for another big storm. I just don't want anymore cold that doesn't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It's all relative, we've had so much snow already this season in this area, and a lot of cold, so a lot of us are about done. That doesn't mean that I won't root for another big storm. I just don't want anymore cold that doesn't produce.Well I agree with the dry cold, I'm done with that. If it isn't gonna snow then bring on spring. I want at least a few more inches so we can get this as our second snowiest season in New Brunswick. I was really hoping we'd break 95-96 but that's looking like a long shot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like Kermit the Frog in the top left of the above vapor image (post 21). He is staring right at the US. Wonder what he is up to? But what does it mean? 0.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This reminds me A LOT of the February 12-13 storm. There are at least a few parrallels to that event, looking at this setup. I don't see this cutting. Far too progressive. NAO heading up towards 1. We will need a very potent shortwave as the GFS/Euro currently show to bring this up the coast. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=winter_02122014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Folks bailing on winter on March 3 FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This reminds me A LOT of the February 12-13 storm. There are at least a few parrallels to that event, looking at this setup. I don't see this cutting. Far too progressive. NAO heading up towards 1. We will need a very potent shortwave as the GFS/Euro currently show to bring this up the coast. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/?n=winter_02122014 The NAO is forecasted to take a brief dive towards neutral. We usually get some of our most significant storms during a transitioning NAO, although it's usually when it's moving from negative to positive. It will be interesting if we maintain this slightly positive NAO through early Spring, at some point you would expect it to take a big dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That's a pretty potent southern shortwave again on the GFS, the problem remains that we're not getting any northern stream energy to phase into it. This has a lot of similarities IMO to today's non-event, just further south and with less cold air around. The energy around this time is obviously stronger than what we were just experiencing, but the PV moves overhead in tandem creating suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The NAO is forecasted to take a brief dive towards neutral. We usually get some of our most significant storms during a transitioning NAO, although it's usually when it's moving from negative to positive. It will be interesting if we maintain this slightly positive NAO through early Spring, at some point you would expect it to take a big dive. I'm a bit confused by your comment. I'm not yet concerned with what's happening after this storm. The biggest storm of the season occurred on Feb 12-13, and there was no transition in the NAO as indicated on that graph; in fact in was relatively stable. Additionally I was referencing the NAO rising leading up to the event, NOT after . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The differences at H5 between the NAM and the GFS at day 3 are laughable. This is why you never trust a NAM forecast beyond 48 hours. The timing and placement of features is off by hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm a bit confused by your comment. I'm not yet concerned with what's happening after this storm. The biggest storm of the season occurred on Feb 12-13, and there was no transition in the NAO as indicated on that graph; in fact in was relatively stable. Additionally I was referencing the NAO rising leading up to the event, NOT after . Your comment regarding February 12-13 has no correlation with my statement regarding a transitioning NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The trough tries to go negative tilt at hour 84, looks like the low will try and creep up the coast. Light rain up to DCA hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 We would have really benefited here from a west based -NAO. The high pressure initially over Quebec is permitted to slide east and eventually allow the low to slip OTS without much impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS is so close, the kicker out west kind of hurts its chances of coming up the coast though. It would be nice if that lobe over the Lakes could help phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Folks bailing on winter on March 3 FTL. The winter is coming to a close, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Folks bailing on winter on March 3 FTL. 2010 ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS is so close, the kicker out west kind of hurts its chances of coming up the coast though. It would be nice if that lobe over the Lakes could help phase in. A lot of similarities to todays pattern. Strong southern shortwave traversing the southern tier, PV to the north. The only difference is that the energy is more amplified and digs a lot more. You sort of get the impression that if it tried to come further north you would end up with another meat grinder scenario. What a beast though at H5 regardless. Closed off 500mb low off the NC coast day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The winter is coming to a close, sorry. I wouldn't be so sure about that. It's going to be at least a few weeks before you can run shirtless in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Need a northern stream vort to phase in and then boom. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 While we're not expected to get much help from the NAO we should be seeing a transition back to more of +PNA, and as long as we have that going for us, expect average or below average temperatures with continued storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I wouldn't be so sure about that. It's going to be at least a few weeks before you can run shirtless in the park. Not until April most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The winter is coming to a close, sorry. EURO weeklies today: Week 1: -8 Week 2: -8 Week 3: -2 Week 4: -1 Winter isn't "coming to a close" before April most likely. In fact, the EURO is extremely bullish at the March 12-14 range. Ask any met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The winter is coming to a close, sorry. Sure; it always does. It just seems inconsistent to (self-admittedly, in many cases) spend a week tracking what was always a dubious event, clutching to the dwindling chances of light snow, and then root on spring the day after it fails. I would say that's a case of being a "fair-weather friend", but that is perhaps slightly paradoxical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 EURO weeklies today: Week 1: -8 Week 2: -8 Week 3: -2 Week 4: -1 Winter isn't "coming to a close" before April most likely. In fact, the EURO is extremely bullish at the March 12-14 range. Ask any met. Those departures by mid March are still highs near 50. Sorry. She's wrapping up! It's been a good one, nearly 5 feet of snow. I don't know why anyone is upset. I don't take any model's bullishness or lack thereof 10 days in advance, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Those departures by mid March are still highs near 50. Sorry. She's wrapping up! It's been a good one, nearly 5 feet of snow. I don't know why anyone is upset. There will still be winter threats up until the 17th, after that I agree it will likely be over, but you're being really premature since none of the LR data shows a bad pattern for March snow. You're not presenting any data, you seem to be basing your thoughts on today's bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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