deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Im guessing the GFS is suuuuper wrong, but we shall see what the doc says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And better news is the CMC crushes the MA with another snowstorm, this is like 2010 all over again for them, they get so much snow it's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And better news is the CMC crushes the MA with another snowstorm, this is like 2010 all over again for them, they get so much snow it's crazy. Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Maps? http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's not losing it, the HP is just farther north than the GFS. It's been a long time since we seen a coastal give majority of NC rain with just mtns getting a good snow, kind of what this is trending to, IMO. The good news is the HP is not sliding east anymore, it's holding in a good spot just retreating north, much better than sliding east. Thats what I mean. Cmc I believe and its ensembles were showing a colder storm before. Its now warming up. If euro warms up on the next run I think youre right...its a mountains storm. Thats always been on the table really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Do you happen to have what was forecast and the actual temps for KCAE for that period? Yes, it did better at CAE with the 2/9/12 Euro forecasting it down to 29-30 as of 7 AM at CAE on 2/12/14 vs/ the actual of ~29 while it had it down to only 32-3 just N and E of ATL(it was actually ~28-29 then) though it warmed it to 32-33 at CAE at 1 PM. It was ~29 at 7 AM,,so pretty good then though it may have to warm at 1 PM. What was it at 1 PM? It had MCN near 34 where it was actually 32 at 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Thats what I mean. Cmc I believe and its ensembles were showing a colder storm before. Its now warming up. If euro warms up on the next run I think youre right...its a mountains storm. Thats always been on the table really. Ah, I see, it's definitely a western event, but still time I guess. ULL's do crazy things too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Also, the past 3 GEFS runs have gotten colder each run, the 12z GEFS mean has the 850 line running right down I-77, by 12z Friday it starts to retreat. Can't see 2m's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Canadian's track isnt really ideal for anyone outside the mountains and maybe foothills, regardless. Slightly inland. It wouldn't take much to get a much better solution and we're 5+ days out. The Canadian tends to overamplify sometimes, too, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 12Z GEFS, though not nearly as progressive with the low as GFS, is somewhat more progressive than prior GEFS and has lighter qpf for N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 With the record of the gfs with southern stream systems and considering how bad it did with the last storm. Not concerned really about what it does. Especially at this lead time. However I'd like the cmc ensembles and euro ensembles to show a nice cold storm. Curious if the cmc ensembles are as warm as the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z UKMET... The HP slides off the coast at around hr 126, but by then the storm is rounding the corner and coming up the coast off shore. At hr 120, there is a 1012 mb LP in the central Gulf and a 1039 mb HP in New York with a solid CAD signature showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just trust in the king. If he starts to fumble and call audibles then it's time to worry. Gfs, again, likely wrong. Why can't we improve this model? I understand that it takes money and all models have there issues, But IMO the day 4-8 is the most important part of a forecast. Why??? It's simple really, people want to plan and look ahead. Can't do that with a model that doesn't seeing anything until it's 72 and in. Right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Verbatim the CMC ENS looks like a dumpster fire for next week. It has a six hour window of ZR in the mountains and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z UKMET... The HP slides off the coast at around hr 126, but by then the storm is rounding the corner and coming up the coast off shore. Yep and has our friend the GL low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just trust in the king. If he starts to fumble and call audibles then it's time to worry. Gfs, again, likely wrong. Why can't we improve this model? I understand that it takes money and all models have there issues, But IMO the day 4-8 is the most important part of a forecast. Why??? It's simple really, people want to plan and look ahead. Can't do that with a model that doesn't seeing anything until it's 72 and in. Right?? Hey Chris, I was reading an interesting article from a guy who helps with the programming of the GFS for modeling. He was saying that the Sandy funds were supposed to help buy like $2mm worth of a new super computer to match the what the Euro center is currently doing. Evidently though it was tied in that we had to use IBM which is now Lenovo and is Chinese. US gov is worried about spying so that has delayed the purchase of the super computer. The icing on the cake is the Euro centre's new super computer is actually American made and cheaper....and faster. lol. GFS is using like 10 year old super computer technology or something...so thus the grids suck compared to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 12Z Ukmet is textbook perfect for a major ZR/IP for CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That doesn't surprise me at all and that's sad. I'm not saying that the European is all-knowing and always right. However, it usually kicks the GFS butt in this timeframe and it consistently does it. Now, there are certainly times for the GFS can perform better than the European. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sounds good Larry. Doc should be up and running. On road attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That doesn't surprise me at all and that's sad. I'm not saying that the European is all-knowing and always right. However, it usually kicks the GFS butt in this timeframe and it consistently does it. Now, there are certainly times for the GFS can perform better than the European. Not to get too off subject but supposedly the Euro is undergoing an upgrade and the Ensembles are going to be almost as high of resolution as the OP making the mean that much better. The only thing the GFS really has going for it is the real time data sampling in the 3 day time frame at 5h....even so the last event it sucked it up even out to like 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 They could chain time from all of our computers, if they wanted to...it takes the will. There are weather lovers all over the world....and probably some have Crays, lol. It's not rocket surgery T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro has led the way all winter. GFS is always wandering around drunk. Surprised we have a storm thread this far out, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Regardless, it's just going to be too warm for anything other than rain for the bulk of the storm. I don't care if the track looks good. +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro has led the way all winter. GFS is always wandering around drunk. Surprised we have a storm thread this far out, though. You started a thread based off one run. There is a huge difference in a model showing one run of a strom as to the euro showing a storm 4 out 5 times in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Based on hour 84, I'm guessing 12z Euro will hold firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Euro has led the way all winter. GFS is always wandering around drunk. Surprised we have a storm thread this far out, though.the euro has not! It did on the last storm and that was it. You dont even look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Out to 102 euro looks a little slower and digging more. Might not be around for the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 the euro has not! It did on the last storm and that was it. You dont even look at the models. So basically it led on the only storm that has even mattered all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Out to 114 it doesn't look like it's going to get as much of a phase. @126 on 00z our ULL was closing off. It's not there on the 12z. That said on the surface 12z is much colder than the 00z with a really strong CAD. 1040 HP sitting in PA. with a 1036 sitting off of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 @126 our CAD is going away with no ULL and all the moisture is in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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