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3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?


WXinCanton

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It's not losing it, the HP is just farther north than the GFS. It's been a long time since we seen a coastal give majority of NC rain with just mtns getting a good snow, kind of what this is trending to, IMO.

The good news is the HP is not sliding east anymore, it's holding in a good spot just retreating north, much better than sliding east.

Thats what I mean. Cmc I believe and its ensembles were showing a colder storm before. Its now warming up. If euro warms up on the next run I think youre right...its a mountains storm. Thats always been on the table really.

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Do you happen to have what was forecast and the actual temps for KCAE for that period?

 

 Yes, it did better at CAE with the 2/9/12 Euro forecasting it down to 29-30 as of 7 AM at CAE on 2/12/14 vs/ the actual of ~29 while it had it down to only 32-3 just N and E of ATL(it was actually ~28-29 then) though it warmed it to 32-33 at CAE at 1 PM. It was ~29 at 7 AM,,so pretty good then though it may have to warm at 1 PM. What was it at 1 PM? It had MCN near 34 where it was actually 32 at 7 AM.

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Thats what I mean. Cmc I believe and its ensembles were showing a colder storm before. Its now warming up. If euro warms up on the next run I think youre right...its a mountains storm. Thats always been on the table really.

Ah, I see, it's definitely a western event, but still time I guess. ULL's do crazy things too.

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With the record of the gfs with southern stream systems and considering how bad it did with the last storm. Not concerned really about what it does. Especially at this lead time. However I'd like the cmc ensembles and euro ensembles to show a nice cold storm. Curious if the cmc ensembles are as warm as the op.

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Just trust in the king. If he starts to fumble and call audibles then it's time to worry. Gfs, again, likely wrong. Why can't we improve this model? I understand that it takes money and all models have there issues,

But IMO the day 4-8 is the most important part of a forecast. Why??? It's simple really, people want to plan and look ahead. Can't do that with a model that doesn't seeing anything until it's 72 and in. Right??

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Just trust in the king. If he starts to fumble and call audibles then it's time to worry. Gfs, again, likely wrong. Why can't we improve this model? I understand that it takes money and all models have there issues,

But IMO the day 4-8 is the most important part of a forecast. Why??? It's simple really, people want to plan and look ahead. Can't do that with a model that doesn't seeing anything until it's 72 and in. Right??

 

Hey Chris, I was reading an interesting article from a guy who helps with the programming of the GFS for modeling. He was saying that the Sandy funds were supposed to help buy like $2mm worth of a new super computer to match the what the Euro center is currently doing. Evidently though it was tied in that we had to use IBM which is now Lenovo and is Chinese. US gov is worried about spying so that has delayed the purchase of the super computer. The icing on the cake is the Euro centre's new super computer is actually American made and cheaper....and faster. lol. GFS is using like 10 year old super computer technology or something...so thus the grids suck compared to the Euro. 

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That doesn't surprise me at all and that's sad. I'm not saying that the European is all-knowing and always right. However, it usually kicks the GFS butt in this timeframe and it consistently does it. Now, there are certainly times for the GFS can perform better than the European.

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That doesn't surprise me at all and that's sad. I'm not saying that the European is all-knowing and always right. However, it usually kicks the GFS butt in this timeframe and it consistently does it. Now, there are certainly times for the GFS can perform better than the European.

 

Not to get too off subject but supposedly the Euro is undergoing an upgrade and the Ensembles are going to be almost as high of resolution as the OP making the mean that much better. The only thing the GFS really has going for it is the real time data sampling in the 3 day time frame at 5h....even so the last event it sucked it up even out to like 2 days. 

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Euro has led the way all winter. GFS is always wandering around drunk. Surprised we have a storm thread this far out, though.

 

You started a thread based off one run.  There is a huge difference in a model showing one run of a strom as to the euro showing a storm 4 out 5 times in a row.

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Out to 114 it doesn't look like it's going to get as much of a phase. @126 on 00z our ULL was closing off. It's not there on the 12z. That said on the surface 12z is much colder than the 00z with a really strong CAD. 1040 HP sitting in PA. with a 1036 sitting off of Maine. 

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