Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 The secondary just develops a few hous later, so the dynamics are to our east on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 One of the only storms this winter to to get drier and less impressive within 48 hrs of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 One of the only storms this winter to to get drier and less impressive within 48 hrs of event. These setups rarely work out for us so if we get a few inches its a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 LOL this is incredible...I went from 8.5" of snow on the 12z NAM, to 0.5" on the 00z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I'm having a hard time believing we end up as dry as what the early returns are showing. Their will definitely be a quick burst of heavy snow as the energy transfers offshore. For those that were humping the NAM today, they should have known better after seeing the cutback at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 BTW the 4K NAM simulated radars look decent. About 6 hours or so of light snow. It shows 0.25" plus from I-78 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Anyone that thought warning criteria snow was possible ever with this storm was setting themselves up for a let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's not over until it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Anyone that thought warning criteria snow was possible ever with this storm was setting themselves up for a let down. That is so easy to say when model guidance has dramatically shifted to support such a comment. Do you want a pat on the back? It seems like Mount Holly is committed to going down with the ship, although I would love to see them nail it down again: "THE MAIN LOW TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT, LIFTING AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR AREA. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN OUT AS SNOW. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY WHERE SOME RAIN COULD MIX. IT APPEARS THE MAXIMUM LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WILL LEAD TO A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING RUSH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 That is so easy to say when model guidance has dramatically shifted to support such a comment. Do you want a pat on the back? The problem is that no serious guidance really suggested warning criteria snows. A few of the short-range/hi-res models started printing out some high QPF's (not unsurprisingly) and it sort of snowballed into a case of "Well, if the NAM is trending wetter and more dynamic, there's no reason it can't continue to trend more dynamic!", inflating expectations a bit. Mt. Holly, NYC, and Albany are all sticking to their guns so it'll be interesting to see if their collective skill comes out on top over guidance and enthusiast analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 That is so easy to say when model guidance has dramatically shifted to support such a comment. Do you want a pat on the back? A cookie would be preferable as I have an aversion to being touched by strangers. So thanks but no thanks. With that said, if you have been reading ,my forecast all along has been 1-3 with more n and w. Models or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Mount Holly must of just looked at the new RAP model. It does have a slight shift to the west the past couple of runs. Look at the 700mb VV's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Mount Holly must of just look at the new RAP model. It does have a slight shift to the west the past couple of runs. Look at the 700mb VV's. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=008ℑ=data%2Frap%2F02%2Frap_namer_008_700_rh_ht.gif&model=rap&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Looks good for a couple hours of pretty heavy snow. Unfortunately with the low getting going just a hair late, http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=011ℑ=data%2Frap%2F02%2Frap_namer_011_700_rh_ht.gif&model=rap&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M You are left with a little gap (similar to what happened the other day when the dynamics jumped from CPA to ENJ/LI quite quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The GFS trended wetter from 00z last night, to 6z, to 12z today. It wasn't just NAM and friends. The problem is that no serious guidance really suggested warning criteria snows. A few of the short-range/hi-res models started printing out some high QPF's (not unsurprisingly) and it sort of snowballed into a case of "Well, if the NAM is trending wetter and more dynamic, there's no reason it can't continue to trend more dynamic!", inflating expectations a bit. Mt. Holly, NYC, and Albany are all sticking to their guns so it'll be interesting to see if their collective skill comes out on top over guidance and enthusiast analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The hrrr and rap look meh. Basically 0-1.5". The rgem looked a bit drier as well. I'll post the rgem snow map when it"s out on meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Here's the meteograms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The GFS trended wetter from 00z last night, to 6z, to 12z today. It wasn't just NAM and friends. But this is sort of the catch 22 with public access to models. All of a sudden some start upping amounts for a few runs and everyone gets the expectations up. But with a 2-4 hour event its going to be hard to pull off more then 3" for most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The hrrr and rap look meh. Basically 0-1.5". The rgem looked a bit drier as well. I'll post the rgem snow map when it"s out on meteocentre. Latest RAP is 7mm of precip as snow. That's a solid .27" of precip or 2"-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 That is so easy to say when model guidance has dramatically shifted to support such a comment. Do you want a pat on the back? It seems like Mount Holly is committed to going down with the ship, although I would love to see them nail it down again: "THE MAIN LOW TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT, LIFTING AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR AREA. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN OUT AS SNOW. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY WHERE SOME RAIN COULD MIX. IT APPEARS THE MAXIMUM LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH WILL LEAD TO A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING RUSH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA." So one of the smarter guys that care to contribute on this board makes a case for a weaker system throughout the day and the models have trended his way .And you`re response is to be obnoxious . I really hope guys like Mitch Jets John Chris Snowgoose aren't dissuaded by dumb stuff like this . Its one off stuff , not the norm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So one of the smarter guys that care to contribute on this board makes a case for a weaker system throughout the day and the models have trended his way .And you`re response is to be obnoxious . I really hope guys like Mitch Jets John Chris Snowgoose aren't dissuaded by dumb stuff like this . Its one off stuff , not the norm . Thanks man, I hope you as well are not dissuaded, you are clearly one of the valued posters on this board. I take it all in stride though, people are obviously welcome to disagree with me though I would prefer it be in a more constructive manner lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So one of the smarter guys that care to contribute on this board makes a case for a weaker system throughout the day and the models have trended his way .And you`re response is to be obnoxious . I really hope guys like Mitch Jets John Chris Snowgoose aren't dissuaded by dumb stuff like this . Its one off stuff , not the norm . +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thanks man, I hope you as well are not dissuaded, you are clearly one of the valued posters on this board. I take it all in stride though, people are obviously welcome to disagree with me though I would prefer it be in a more constructive manner lol. UW , Some good returns just passed through the PITT down thru the Morgantown area and hopefully they hold . Looks like the surface around is cold. ie Colts Neck down to 17 , if we can that burst for 2 hours or so , we may be able to put down a quick 2 or 3 . Maybe MT HOLLY maybe looking at it in a similar fashion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 UW , Some good returns just passed through the PITT down thru the Morgantown area and hopefully they hold . Looks like the surface around is cold. ie Colts Neck down to 17 , if we can that burst for 2 hours or so , we may be able to put down a quick 2 or 3 . Maybe MT HOLLY maybe looking at it in a similar fashion . I feel as long as there is an area of decent lift that passes over us rather than completely jumping us than we should be able to muster that up judging by the rates experienced further west like you said. The trend to develop the secondary slightly later scares me however in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebythec Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So one of the smarter guys that care to contribute on this board makes a case for a weaker system throughout the day and the models have trended his way .And you`re response is to be obnoxious . I really hope guys like Mitch Jets John Chris Snowgoose aren't dissuaded by dumb stuff like this . Its one off stuff , not the norm . This. Back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 So one of the smarter guys that care to contribute on this board makes a case for a weaker system throughout the day and the models have trended his way .And you`re response is to be obnoxious . I really hope guys like Mitch Jets John Chris Snowgoose aren't dissuaded by dumb stuff like this . Its one off stuff , not the norm . And I found the comment critical of others' thoughts on the situation, made 10-12 hours later after things had played out differently than modeled at the time to have a faint whiff of hubris. If you think my benign comment was "obnoxious" and "dumb," take a cue from the snow pack and get thicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 And I found the comment critical of others' thoughts on the situation, made 10-12 hours later after things had played out differently than modeled at the time to have a faint whiff of hubris. If you think my benign comment was "obnoxious" and "dumb," take a cue from the snow pack and get thicker.Guy my comment was just as benign and I wasn't calling out anyone here...Did I say anyone specific was calling for warning snows? Nope... It was a mere comment that there would be let down if anyone was expecting extreme amounts to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I enjoy reading this immensely, but please don't make it seem like I'm reading a clan forum on a multiplayer game You guys are the best of the best, hands down. I don't even bother with mainstream weather reports anymore since they don't seem to have as much finesse and understanding for the weather. Thank you for the valued information for the past few years! (Sorry this isn't on the banter, mods, feel free to delete it if you want) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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