user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is a tick west @ 33 and has a little better precip field on the western side this run Looks like a tick colder due to the heaver precip over us but still warmer than the other guidance @ 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs goes even more nuts with the CCB the back end this run esp just N of NYC @ 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Timeframe for precip in area for PHL -> NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow it looks like things really blew up at 6z. I am concerned tho, it looks very warm for NYC/NENJ/LI. Nws issued winter storm warning here for 10-14! Accuweather lowered to 4-8. The 4-8 seems much more accurate, but I know my NWS forecast has me on the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 6z GFS is no longer dry. Dropping close 1.5 inches of liquid thrs the area. It now sees the CCB at 48. Takes the center 50 miles SE of AC to 977 SE of the BM to 974 at CC .7 at KNYC looks to be frozen on the front then at 42 as 850 s punch in there looks to be about .4 of liquid then by 48 the city and coast will flip back and there could b 2 to 4 on the backend in spots . Looks in line with other guidance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The CCB is starting to look really impressive and the gfs now has the 850s crashing as it develops. If the CCB signal continues to strengthen then the 850s and surface will probably crash a bit faster and we could get 4-8" with that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still worries me the EURO is the warmest model and has been the most consistent thus far. Im still sticking with 6" for suffolk count when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 06z RGEM moved west of 00z run, rides the NJ coast and then crosses Central LI. I'm not sure how much credence it should be given though given the differences it had from the last off hour run at 18z to to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Models definitely ticked west at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man upton loves toying around with Nassau this winter. We have been back and forth with warning/watch/advisory several times. The last storm did not work out in our favor (on the south shore) I think this will be different however. My call here is 8 which is low end warning and it's going to be rain sleet glacier which should make for the worst shoveling in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Models definitely ticked west at 6z. yea the 6z crosses E.LI. also im banking on very little back end snowfall, I would say 2 inches tops from that and maybe 4" from the front end thump. overall, not enthusiastic with this storm for SW Suffolk county ralph. atleast coming home from work at 5 tomorrow wont be that bad now if its rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Models definitely ticked west at 6z. Even so the idea remains essentially the same with the front end thump to taint and then maybe wraparound snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At this point we really cannot afford any westward jogs of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 yea the 6z crosses E.LI. also im banking on very little back end snowfall, I would say 2 inches tops from that and maybe 4" from the front end thump. overall, not enthusiastic with this storm for SW Suffolk county ralph. atleast coming home from work at 5 tomorrow wont be that bad now if its rain Why are you so negative about this storm? If you go back and look at the thread for jan/11 we were pretty negative on li watching thunder sleet. Then it's started snowing at 3-4" an hour for hours and 15" later it was a memorable storm. While my 8" call is conservative it's more likely to bust low then high. The heaviest precip on both sides could/should fall as snow. Kind of a thump light rain thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Even so the idea remains essentially the same with the front end thump to taint and then maybe wraparound snows. in the past 11 years "good" wrap around snows that produce over 6" widespread only happened three time 2013, 2011 and 2002 that was. im not seeing any clear signals that we're going to get something that would beat the 5-6 deform wraparound band that I had on Christmas 2002. therefore, im sticking with my call of 6" from the frontend thump combined with whatever wraparound snows we'll receive here on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Why are you so negative about this storm? If you go back and look at the thread for jan/11 we were pretty negative on li watching thunder sleet. Then it's started snowing at 3-4" an hour for hours and 15" later it was a memorable storm. While my 8" call is conservative it's more likely to bust low then high. The heaviest precip on both sides could/should fall as snow. Kind of a thump light rain thump. I am not im just saying to have intense wrap around snows you need a perfectly closed off H5 Lp as it passes LI and you have to hope the storm isn't booking as most of the storms that have been progged to be slow movers ended up being faster. im just not comfortable at all going in on "wraparound CCB" snows. betting all my cards on the thump and the wraparound whatever it be will be a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Shows you how difficult this setup is. RGEM has now had a couple wild swings. I'd wait for the12z and this evening when we enter the short range models wheelhouse should be very interesting. I think the track is going to be a nowcasting scenario where we just have to watch it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Shows you how difficult this setup is. RGEM has now had a couple wild swings. I'd wait for the12z and this evening when we enter the short range models wheelhouse should be very interesting. I think the track is going to be a nowcasting scenario where we just have to watch it unfold.Agree there are still some surprises on the way. I would wait for anyone out of well nw to make a final call. In fact I would wait until tomorrow afternoon. This storm is going to be memorable for many reasons. Unlike the January storms this is going to turn some heads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Newest rgem had more snow according to the snow-water eq map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The RGEM may have been warmer but it had more snow for everybody save for Central and Eastern LI. 30-40 mm of snow in parts of the NYC burbs. Almost identical to the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wraparound rarely works out with happy endings unless you go to a massage parlor oops their are kids on here good luck folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wraparound rarely works out with happy endings unless you go to a massage parlor oops their are kids on here good luck folks. Lol oh man I love your posts brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you weren't awake already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 A little ot...but very sneakily coldest morning of the year in some places..... -4 in Somerville and -10 in Sussex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Earthlight how much of the RGEM/NAM do you think is sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wraparound rarely works out with happy endings unless you go to a massage parlor oops their are kids on here good luck folks. Best. Post. In. This. Thread. Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Earthlight how much of the RGEM/NAM do you think is sleet? The 4km NAM doesn't change over for most areas in NE NJ/NYC until almost 1.25" liquid equivalent has fallen. The RGEM is showing 30mm falling as snow. I don't think there will be much sleet..maybe for a period..and then rain. But these 06z hires models were snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you weren't awake already.. snow60-2.gif Is that accumulated snowfall? If so how much for the tristate area translated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The overnight trend on the GFS was by far the most encouraging because it makes you understand that it isn't just the mesoscale models seeing the overall development and evolution of the banding. The GFS now has a significant, well developed cold conveyor belt. It is only a matter of time before it starts adjusting its thermal profiles a tick colder. With the classic closed H5 low tracking in a textbook spot south of Long Island...if the mid level taint can be scoured out by the time this CCB is ripping overhead, all bets are off. You can look at the perfect positioning of the mid level centers including the H7 low on this map and draw your own meteorological conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is that accumulated snowfall? If so how much for the tristate area translated? Yes, there is a legend at the top, drop the zero (it is ridiculous and not going to happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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