seahawkbaseball#6 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm just looking forward to these pieces of energy being drug tested further tomorrow.....hopefully good for many....it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS was encouraging to see. Now we have to see if we can get the trend northward in the moisture to give the mountains, foothills and piedmont areas snow. I am glad to see the this trend tonight, and it makes the rest of the model runs very important. The models do not handle phasing very well, so lets see what happens as we move forward. I am not ready to write this one off yet. Yes it is and the rollercoaster ride is far from over. Now since the trend has gotten better still questions remain on the amount or any phasing and the strenght and charactistics downstream over the NE and Canada. Its interesting at the difference between nam and gfs with the PV over Canada. Nam is weaker and further south while GFS is stronger and north. Could def allow some play for a N/W trend to come in. Seriously, if the NAM was right, how far back would have to go back to find a storm like this in the Panhandle? I'm not sure but that would be devastating for that area. But there is a good list below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm just looking forward to these pieces of energy being drug tested further tomorrow.....hopefully good for many....it's close. Agreed. Models start ingesting solid food soon and we'll get an idea of what's really going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's funny, I was reading that Wikipedia piece just a minute ago -- a few 2-4 inch snows mentioned, but really nothing at all about big ice or sleet storms. My guess is, quite unprecedented. Yes it is and the rollercoaster ride is far from over. Now since the trend has gotten better still questions remain on the amount or any phasing and the strenght and charactistics downstream over the NE and Canada. Its interesting at the difference between nam and gfs with the PV over Canada. Nam is weaker and further south while GFS is stronger and north. Could def allow some play for a N/W trend to come in. I'm not sure but that would be devastating for that area. But there is a good list below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Was there any new data ingest for tonight's runs? I feel like we've seen this show before a few years ago... No mention that I saw This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 260405 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0400Z SUN JAN 26 2014 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME.. SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS ENS Mean is seeing the shift. Further west with placement of northern energy out at 30 compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GEFS Mean is much wetter for 00z. Has precip into much of NC. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GEFS Mean @96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wow, GEFS has 0.5"-0.75" line almost to RDU, 0.25-0.5" almost to GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Can't wait to see individual panels of the GEFS...something tells me there are some big dogs in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wow, GEFS has 0.5"-0.75" line almost to RDU, 0.25-0.5" almost to GSO. It actually gets wetter out to 108. Puts CLT in .50 almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 gfse84.png More to come after that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 ILM has 1.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 ILM has 1.25"+ Straight crushed. Really this is an amazing trend. If the Euro comes on board look out. Again I find it extremely hard to believe we wouldn't see more moisture out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I hope it's not some 3 big dogs and 12 dry run equation skewing this thing. By the way how many indy's are there for GFS, 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So, the GEFS Mean looks pretty similar to what the GGEM Ensemble Mean has been showing, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Straight crushed. Really this is an amazing trend. If the Euro comes on board look out. Again I find it extremely hard to believe we wouldn't see more moisture out of this.What do the surface temps look like in FL, Coastal Carolinas, and SGA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Straight crushed. Really this is an amazing trend. If the Euro comes on board look out. Again I find it extremely hard to believe we wouldn't see more moisture out of this. Little stunned with such a big shift, wasn't expecting that. Not sure I can make it another hour. Good news is the 3 big models so far all got better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So, the GEFS Mean looks pretty similar to what the GGEM Ensemble Mean has been showing, yes? 12z ENS GGEM was maybe 50 miles further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Haven't posted too much on the boards since moving to Charleston two years ago, but that 0z GFS would be quite the devestating ice event for the Charleston area. 1.2" QPF with sfc mainly at or below freezing a couple miles inland from the beaches. Could maybe eek out an inch of snow on this run which would be nothing to sneeze at given 2" would tie the fifth biggest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What do the surface temps look like in FL, Coastal Carolinas, and SGA? Actually and I am not trolling you it's good for everyone except southern GA....but remember the GEFS Mean is a bunch of members so it will be skewed just like with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I hope it's not some 3 big dogs and 12 dry run equation skewing this thing. By the way how many indy's are there for GFS, 18? 20 There's 5 completely dry (OTS) members. Most of the big dogs are on the coast with the big precip (1.5 or 2"+) however there's lots of inland action of these big dogs, especially GA/SC with 1.0"+ liquid. There's one with 3.0" liquid on GA/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 20 There's 5 completely dry (OTS) members. Most of the big dogs are on the coast with the big precip (1.5 or 2"+) Are you talking liquid or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Are you talking liquid or snow? Liquid. I said it a few times in my post... Edit: I see what you quoted. That would be roughly 15-20" or so of snow on a 10:1 ratio...assuming it falls as all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Liquid. I said it a few times in my post...I assume in most coastal areas (especially NC) that's snow though. Definitely some sort of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I assume in most coastal areas (especially NC) that's snow though. Definitely some sort of frozen precip. Yeah it's Ice/Snow on the coast, snow inland. I thought he was asking are my inches snow or liquid from the individual members. All inch values in that post are liquid..how that translates in certain situations depends...although 3.0" on the GA/SC border with the temps the way they will be is unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 20 There's 5 completely dry (OTS) members. Most of the big dogs are on the coast with the big precip (1.5 or 2"+) however there's lots of inland action of these big dogs, especially GA/SC with 1.0"+ liquid. There's one with 3.0" liquid on GA/SC border. Thnx Jon! Just need .10-.20 with what should be great ratios. Of course I'd love to get hammered, but .25+ is gravy back over this way compared to where we've been sitting at viewing models today. Fighting the sand man but hopefully euro op will keep the trend going. It's ensembles will be telling when we see them in the a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 00z CMC is way wetter than the 12z CMC. 00z http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/accum/PR_000-120_0000.gif 12z http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/accum/PR_000-120_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Out to 24 Euro looks like northern energy is further west. Energy off the Cali coast is further east and closed off compared to it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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