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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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If it becomes official now, it would make this year to date an uncanny match for 1977-78 if I'm not mistaken. Pretty awesome.

 

 To clarify: I don't think that ASO will be +0.5+. However, I do think SON will have a shot at becoming the first trimonth that is +0.5+. IF it is and we then have a string of four more trimonthlies of +0.5+, it won't be retroactively officially declared on the NOAA table til early April! However, we'd have a good idea about it way before then, of course.

 There is something that is bothering me about the JAS # of 0.0. The weeklies averaged just over +0.2. I already know they don't use the same data. I just hope that NOAA's trimonthlies won't continue to look "too cool" or they may screw things up somewhat.

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To clarify: I don't think that ASO will be +0.5+. However, I do think SON will have a shot at becoming the first trimonth that is +0.5+. IF it is and we then have a string of four more trimonthlies of +0.5+, it won't be retroactively officially declared on the NOAA table til early April! However, we'd have a good idea bout it way before then, of course.

There is something that is bothering me about the JAS # of 0.0. The weeklies averaged just over +0.2. I already know they don't use the same data. I just hope that NOAA's trimonthlies won't continue to look "too cool" or they may screw things up somewhat.

I agree. I'm also basing my statement off of the NOAA tri-monthly list. I didn't really think ASO had a chance either. Heck, I'm just now only starting to give Niño a chance anyway and still not thinking it's going to happen yet really but starting to get my hopes up. Lol. Assuming it does happen though, if it retroactively peaked in DJF and JFM, it would be almost an exact match for the Niño of 77-78.

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not much movement on ENSO this week, but at least what movement there was it was +

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4 Week         SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
08OCT2014     21.3 0.6     25.5 0.6     27.1 0.4     29.1 0.515OCT2014     21.5 0.7     25.5 0.5     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.722OCT2014     21.8 0.8     25.8 0.8     27.2 0.5     29.4 0.7
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not much movement on ENSO this week, but at least what movement there was it was +

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4

Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA

08OCT2014 21.3 0.6 25.5 0.6 27.1 0.4 29.1 0.5

15OCT2014 21.5 0.7 25.5 0.5 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7

22OCT2014 21.8 0.8 25.8 0.8 27.2 0.5 29.4 0.7

As I've mentioned elsewhere, I am a bit concerned about the ONI related trimonthlies being too low in relation to these weeklies though I do realize they are based on different data sets. Although the weeklies during July-Sep averaged just over +0.2, the JAS trimonthly was released at a cooler 0.0. Will this discrepancy later come back to haunt those wanting an official ONI Niño designation? I still think we'll get the designation fwiw. Actually, I still think (though I'm not yet actually predicting) that there is a realistic possibility that we get the first double year El Niño since 1986-8. It isn't as rare as some may think.

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I also have to agree with that. IF we do make it to Niño on the ONI, double Niño years is not out of the question. Although given the weakness of the current state, I do believe there would be a neutral summer/fall period in between. I guess what I'm saying is I have my doubts for Niño surviving past the spring unlike what the models have predicted.

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As I've mentioned elsewhere, I am a bit concerned about the ONI related trimonthlies being too low in relation to these weeklies though I do realize they are based on different data sets. Although the weeklies during July-Sep averaged just over +0.2, the JAS trimonthly was released at a cooler 0.0. Will this discrepancy later come back to haunt those wanting an official ONI Niño designation? I still think we'll get the designation fwiw. Actually, I still think (though I'm not yet actually predicting) that there is a realistic possibility that we get the first double year El Niño since 1986-8. It isn't as rare as some may think.

 

the monthlies use reconstructed data and a 5 year running mean, so it is possible they will run colder than the OISST dataset

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the warm anomalies are mostly east of 120W and west of the dateline, so it has worked out perfectly that 3.4 is getting screwed

It's been choppy for months. Instead of the regions congealing into some sort of "normal" look it's been pockets and bubbles moving around. I've stopped worrying about enso. It's fairly clear things won't drastically improve. Whether it goes official or not probably won't have much bearing on sensible wx patterns.

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It's been choppy for months. Instead of the regions congealing into some sort of "normal" look it's been pockets and bubbles moving around. I've stopped worrying about enso. It's fairly clear things won't drastically improve. Whether it goes official or not probably won't have much bearing on sensible wx patterns.

 

hopefully we plummet negative...the ENSO state we are in is not traditionally a big snow producer

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Global ensembles are advertising the beginning of Nov to look fairly similar to 03 & 09. It's still not going to make the uneasy feeling go away once we we past the cold shot and start wearing shorts again. I know it's irrelevant to winter and all that but it's that time of year to start worrying about temps and patterns and what it may imply for the beginning of Dec.

Would be nice to see a trend towards ridging in AK/NW canada as we move past the first half of Nov. Weeklies are considering that progression but near the ends of the runs so grains of salt and stuff. While 03 and 09 had similar Novs they we're quite different in Dec. 03 continued with the low heights plastered all over AK/GOA/off the coast of Cali. Luckily it was far enough west to pump up heights in the pna region so Dec 03 wasn't a torch and DCA scored 6" of snow. But that kind of pattern can be too close for comfort. The height pattern wouldn't have to move very far east to be a problem here.

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hopefully we plummet negative...the ENSO state we are in is not traditionally a big snow producer

Yep, history doesn't have much of a snow signal here in weak/warm neutrals. But I'd surely take my chances in just about any of them. Last year should have not done what it did. Let's mortgage the next decade of winters and score another big one. lol

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Global ensembles are advertising the beginning of Nov to look fairly similar to 03 & 09. It's still not going to make the uneasy feeling go away once we we past the cold shot and start wearing shorts again. I know it's irrelevant to winter and all that but it's that time of year to start worrying about temps and patterns and what it may imply for the beginning of Dec.

Would be nice to see a trend towards ridging in AK/NW canada as we move past the first half of Nov. Weeklies are considering that progression but near the ends of the runs so grains of salt and stuff. While 03 and 09 had similar Novs they we're quite different in Dec. 03 continued with the low heights plastered all over AK/GOA/off the coast of Cali. Luckily it was far enough west to pump up heights in the pna region so Dec 03 wasn't a torch and DCA scored 6" of snow. But that kind of pattern can be too close for comfort. The height pattern wouldn't have to move very far east to be a problem here.

coincidentally, both November 03 and 09 show up on last night's top supercomputer analogs....but then 94 does too only 3 times :yikes:

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

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I see the doom and gloom train is in full force today.

 

 

We need some winter cancel posts.

I'm sure they'll be coming as we get into November.

man, you guys are wayyyy to sensative

Bob mentions a few years that I remember seeing come up on the analogs and I then I mention how 94 was also showing up before someone else does, and you'd think I canceled winter

I'm going on record that this year, like every year at this time, I am cautiously optimistic

if and when that changes, you won't have to ask because you will know by the tone of my posts

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man, you guys are wayyyy to sensative

Bob mentions a few years that I remember seeing come up on the analogs and I then I mention how 94 was also showing up before someone else does, and you'd think I canceled winter

I'm going on record that this year, like every year at this time, I am cautiously optimistic

if and when that changes, you won't have to ask because you will know by the tone of my posts

I don't expect you to cancel Mitch. If you do, I'll be all over you!

I need some cancels though. I have to have to have people to make fun of later on.

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Lol- should I stop posting my concerns that we aren't in for an epic bay freezing door to door winter with so much snow that people won't need first floor curtains anymore?

Weeklies continue to improve the look past mid Nov. Lowest heights out west trending south through the month with ridging signal above. Lowest heights out west trend down to socal. Could be split flow with socal getting much needed rain.

Temps around average during second half of Nov here. Matt would like seeing the bn 850's in Dixie at times.

Hopefully things keep trending better as the days and weeks go by. Run looked pretty good to me.

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our winter can be summed up by clicking on the "loop all" for the 24 hrs total qpf on tonight's SREF run    lol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&cycle=20141027%2021%20UTC&param=precip_p24&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model

 

 

that sure brings back some fond memories!

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our winter can be summed up by clicking on the "loop all" for the 24 hrs total qpf on tonight's SREF run    lol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=sref&area=namer&cycle=20141027%2021%20UTC&param=precip_p24&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model

 

 

that sure brings back some fond memories!

Remember the storm a few weeks ago? We rock at miller B's now.

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pS6K14XAcW.png

You really see something like this happening when all the signs point to strong HL blocking?

Long lead stuff has more unexpecteds than expecteds.

No, I don't think 94-95 is a likely outcome or a good tool for this winter. But is it impossible?

Then there is the 06-07 head scratcher....and 12-13 having a strong -ao in Dec but it was warm and terrible.

After closely tracking the last 8 winters, I'll only be sold on a big season once it's already happening. I'm feeling good for having opportunity this winter but I never forget where I live.

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Long lead stuff has more unexpecteds than expecteds.

No, I don't think 94-95 is a likely outcome or a good tool for this winter. But is it impossible?

Then there is the 06-07 head scratcher....and 12-13 having a strong -ao in Dec but it was warm and terrible.

After closely tracking the last 8 winters, I'll only be sold on a big season once it's already happening. I'm feeling good for having opportunity this winter but I never forget where I live.

 

I really think that's the mindset of most people here. This isn't really as clear-cut as most people think. People look at the weak nino, +PDO and east QBO and assume a 1977 redux.

 

Seasonal forecasting never fails to find a way to surprise us. Who honestly saw what happened last winter? We could end up warm/dry just as easily as warm/wet, cold/dry or cold/wet. 

 

I don't need a redux of last winter, all I need is a couple of 4"+ events to make everything pretty and close school. A winter that completely fails to cover the grass once would be pretty depressing.

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