pondo1000 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NAM HAS BEEN COMING IN WITH A LOT LESS PRECIP THAN OTHER MODELS COVERING THE SAME TIME. SOUTHERN ORIGIN SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN BEATING US UP THIS WINTER WITH A SNEAKILY LOWER QPF AND GENERALLY WARMER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. THINGS THAT THE NAM HAD BEEN POINTING TO WHEN THOSE STORMS WERE COMING IN ITS SHORTER TIME FRAME. WITH THIS IN MIND...DO NOT SEE THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES OVER NORTHERN CWA AND A WATCH IS NOT THE PRUDENT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME. Thought this was a strange comment from ILN. The only southern system that was warmer and drier than expected was the Jan 5th event. The early Feb system that dumped 10" on us was colder and wetter than expected. The last system, last Sunday was drier, but that was because it missed us to the south and therefore was colder. Am I missing something here? Other than Jan 5th we really haven't fallen victim to the WTOD or miss to the north much at all this winter. WWA up for DE and Union Counties (not Franklin County) Beautiful out today. Even if nothing accumulates it s going to be such an awesome wild ride these next 24-36 hours (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 WWA now up for Franklin County. Will it be the last of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153948256560235&set=pcb.10153948270660235&type=1&theater.......HMMMM.. ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 WWA now up for Franklin County. Will it be the last of the season? leave it to ILN to hoist an advisory as it becomes even more apparent that this will likely be a non-event. Also not seeing the justification for the winterstorm warnings further north. Radar better start firing up to our west really fast or this is going to make for back to back embarrassments for the nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 leave it to ILN to hoist an advisory as it becomes even more apparent that this will likely be a non-event. Also not seeing the justification for the winterstorm warnings further north. Radar better start firing up to our west really fast or this is going to make for back to back embarrassments for the nws. Awful this year. Have they ever heard of now casting? Wow! They nailed the wind advisory though. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Awful this year. Have they ever heard of now casting? Wow! They nailed the wind advisory though. LOL yea looks like we'll get a brief period of snow....maybe a cartop/grassy DAB. Btw, your March 17th/18th storm is showing up but a bit too far south at this point....but with trends lately, I could see it possibly trending north. I will officially dub that 'The Pondo Storm'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 yea looks like we'll get a brief period of snow....maybe a cartop/grassy DAB. Btw, your March 17th/18th storm is showing up but a bit too far south at this point....but with trends lately, I could see it possibly trending north. I will officially dub that 'The Pondo Storm'. It's amazing how wind can make light snow look like a blizzard out! crazy here right now! 'The Pondo Storm' I love it! Maybe the king will bring her back at 12z. The king has been doing the old have it at 12z, don't at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's amazing how wind can make light snow look like a blizzard out! crazy here right now! 'The Pondo Storm' I love it! Maybe the king will bring her back at 12z. The king has been doing the old have it at 12z, don't at 0z. well ggem looks interesting...and a lot of the gfs ensemble members also look interesting, in fact a few are pretty amped and even too far north for us. Amazing that we might be staring down another snow threat as early as late weekend. If it does materialize I expect ILN to play a very conservative hand lol. p.s. yes looks like a mini blizzard out there...impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 well ggem looks interesting...and a lot of the gfs ensemble members also look interesting, in fact a few are pretty amped and even too far north for us. Amazing that we might be staring down another snow threat as early as late weekend. If it does materialize I expect ILN to play a very conservative hand lol. p.s. yes looks like a mini blizzard out there...impressive One would think, but they haven't done that very much all year. Nice chatting with you. It's been a while. I am guessing you've been able to get a lot of work done lately. Hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 One would think, but they haven't done that very much all year. Nice chatting with you. It's been a while. I am guessing you've been able to get a lot of work done lately. Hope all is well. got a lot accomplished in the small windows that were available, so yes, the pressure valve opened up a bit and decompressed. I'd stll rather it torch than snow, but if we can stay out of the deep freeze and just pad stats.....I can probably work with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 got a lot accomplished in the small windows that were available, so yes, the pressure valve opened up a bit and decompressed. I'd stll rather it torch than snow, but if we can stay out of the deep freeze and just pad stats.....I can probably work with that. Yeah, I am hanging on more this year b/c of the stupid record. I know we aren't going to get to #1, but if all these "teases" would have come to fruition, we would have been there by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yeah, I am hanging on more this year b/c of the stupid record. I know we aren't going to get to #1, but if all these "teases" would have come to fruition, we would have been there by now! speaking of #1....it's interesting how the spread between #1 and #2 is so big. Our #2 is much more in line with IND's #1. I wonder what happened that winter to cause such a jump between #2 and #1? Either the official record keeper was measuring from the taint, or we had at least a couple of freak blockbusters. paging jbcmh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 ouchThat'll teach him to basically call me stupid on his page. Telling me temp profiles don't matter etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 That'll teach him to basically call me stupid on his page. Telling me temp profiles don't matter etc. Yeah, he was out in left field on this one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 euro frozen precip for next two storms. Everything in southern/southeastern half of Ohio is from the day 4/5 storm. Everything in the northern half of Ohio is from the day 6 storm. Being donut-holed at this time frame probably means a snowstorm is likely somewhere in that time frame lol. btw...I can't believe I'm still posting these maps in mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 euro frozen precip for next two storms. Everything in southern/southeastern half of Ohio is from the day 4/5 storm. Everything in the northern half of Ohio is from the day 6 storm. Being donut-holed at this time frame probably means a snowstorm is likely somewhere in that time frame lol. btw...I can't believe I'm still posting these maps in mid March Could've included the totals key lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 ILN must be face palming about now. The radar did not look too impressive this morning to our west and it looks just anemic now. I'll patiently wait for "The Pondo storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 ILN must be face palming about now. The radar did not look too impressive this morning to our west and it looks just anemic now. I'll patiently wait for "The Pondo storm". Hah, let's hope. May not be the 17th, but rather 18th-19th. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 a lot of spread on the euro ens for the pondo storm, (day 4/5 storm). I don't have access to individual members but clearly some must be as far north as WV and several way south. It looks less impressive with the day 6 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Could've included the totals key lol dark gray is 2", where it transitions to blue it's 3", dark blues top out at 5", purple is 6", then shades of pink get lighter for higher amounts. 12" would be about where the medium pink hits the really light pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 a lot of spread on the euro ens for the pondo storm, (day 4/5 storm). I don't have access to individual members but clearly some must be as far north as WV and several way south. It looks less impressive with the day 6 storm. Now I am really going to be crushed when this one doesn't work out. I mean, it's not every day you get a storm named after you. Oh wait, yes it is-on the weather channel! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Now I am really going to be crushed when this one doesn't work out. I mean, it's not every day you get a storm named after you. Oh wait, yes it is-on the weather channel! LOL well the ggem is a huge hit for the I-70 corridor and south.....the nam looks like it's going to go ballistic....the uk tries to get something going...but that's all that the Team Pondo Storm has going for it right now. gfs and euro say forget about it....even their ensembles say forget about it. Only hope is that since the ggem hasn't sucked too bad this winter maybe it'll score one. But you gotta put chances pretty low right now....like < 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 well the ggem is a huge hit for the I-70 corridor and south.....the nam looks like it's going to go ballistic....the uk tries to get something going...but that's all that the Team Pondo Storm has going for it right now. gfs and euro say forget about it....even their ensembles say forget about it. Only hope is that since the ggem hasn't sucked too bad this winter maybe it'll score one. But you gotta put chances pretty low right now....like < 30% Well the Canadian led the way on that southern debacle a couple of weekends ago. But, having the long range end of the NAM looking good is truly the kiss of death this year. That model has been terrible outside of 24 hours, even sometimes within 24 hours. All well. Maybe next year we can start naming storms. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 As I update my sig we see Toledo continue to smash records, up to almost 85" now which is about a foot better than the previous record and an astounding 31" more than the 10th snowiest winter ever! I just cannot fathom this record ever being broken again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 interesting model runs at 12z seem to favor a possible move towards the Pondo Storm. Euro came north a bit, UK went way north and strong, looking like a full blown Ohio snowstorm, GFS came north, JMA, and nogaps north. Ironically the ggem which was one of the most bullish north went south a bit. Wouldn't take much at all, (a little more phasing), to trend this further north, in fact potentially enough to push in warm air....probably equal chances of that and a miss south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 interesting model runs at 12z seem to favor a possible move towards the Pondo Storm. Euro came north a bit, UK went way north and strong, looking like a full blown Ohio snowstorm, GFS came north, JMA, and nogaps north. Ironically the ggem which was one of the most bullish north went south a bit. Wouldn't take much at all, (a little more phasing), to trend this further north, in fact potentially enough to push in warm air....probably equal chances of that and a miss south. It lives for at least one more day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I may go from too far north to too far south in one day on the models for this Sunday-Monday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I am a little interested in the storm on St. Patty's day in the south, as it could affect Ohio. Is it me, or is the GFS terrible on this????? 00z GFS--- the vort max energy tracks through Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia, and it splits a bunch of vorticity to western Mexico. 12z GFS--- it has a circular vort max in Louisiana. GEEEEE. (12z Monday, March 17) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ILN says nothing to see here, even if precip gets here it's mostly cold rain. What model is showing that??? .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NEAR THEGULF COAST SENDING A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION INTO MUCH OF THE AREAON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLD RAIN...WITH SNOWPOSSIBLE IN COLD ADVECTION AS PRECIP EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.WENT WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF I-71...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR DAYTONAND COLUMBUS. WEST CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE SPARED THE EFFECTS OF THISEVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 ILN says nothing to see here, even if precip gets here it's mostly cold rain. What model is showing that??? .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING NEAR THE GULF COAST SENDING A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION INTO MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLD RAIN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN COLD ADVECTION AS PRECIP EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF I-71...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. WEST CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE SPARED THE EFFECTS OF THIS EVENT. Luv it b/c everything ILN says is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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