snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 9z SREF Snow Plume Mean.. POU -- 10.2" MSV -- 6.3" HPN -- 12.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 2-4" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 1-3" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall. You may be right, bit the trends have been positive. I feel comfortable with a general 4-6 snowfall for the NW zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 9z SREF Snow Plume Mean.. POU -- 10.2" MSV -- 6.3" HPN -- 12.2" Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 1-3" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall. Nice follow up post to the crazy SREF data! Totally agree though, and I'll take 2-4" and run with it. Should be a nice way to kick off a great stretch of cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice follow up post to the crazy SREF data! Totally agree though, and I'll take 2-4" and run with it. Should be a nice way to kick off a great stretch of cold weather. Hopefully the fresh snow cover can produce some decent record cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 2-4" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall. The way things have been trending I won't be surprised if it's similar to the early Jan storm that dumped about 7 inches by me. I also won't be surprised if we get 1-3. If this storm tucks in another 30-50 miles I think that would put us all in for maybe 4-6. But who knows? At least it sounds like we are heading into a favorable pattern for some chances going forward if this doesn't pan out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice follow up post to the crazy SREF data! Totally agree though, and I'll take 2-4" and run with it. Should be a nice way to kick off a great stretch of cold weather. Yeah the SREFs are all by themselves.. The trends have def been in our favor but it has had to trend a looong way to even give us 2-4" I wouldn't expect it to continue. Anything additional would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah the SREFs are all by themselves.. The trends have def been in our favor but it has had to trend a looong way to even give us 2-4" I wouldn't expect it to continue. Anything additional would be a bonus. I think 2-4" is easily on the table. Doubt we'd go any higher. The most recent NAM and GFS give us about 2-3" here in Poughkeepsie (going by the data). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z RGEM/GGEM gives most of the area a 3-5" swath... ( not including) enhanced snow ratios but we all know what happened last time. Temps in the single digits and barely had 12:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think 2-4" is easily on the table. Doubt we'd go any higher. The most recent NAM and GFS give us about 2-3" here in Poughkeepsie (going by the data). Yeah I agree.. In the last 24 hrs we have trended a long way to even give us 2-4". To expect it to continue to trend is a setup for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So, another storm where we get shafted while the coastal areas celebrate? No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z RGEM/GGEM gives most of the area a 3-5" swath... ( not including) enhanced snow ratios but we all know what happened last time. Temps in the single digits and barely had 12:1 ratios. Remember, there was high wind at the mid levels, so the ratios were suffering. This time, it's not going be like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z RGEM/GGEM gives most of the area a 3-5" swath... ( not including) enhanced snow ratios but we all know what happened last time. Temps in the single digits and barely had 12:1 ratios. Seems like so many of these storms in recent years have been coastal scrapers, so to speak. It's been a few years since we've had a classical Noreaster that throws widespread 1' amounts deep into the interior. So, another storm where we get shafted while the coastal areas celebrate? No thanks. Live by the sword, die by the sword. I've finally accepted my fate after living here almost 10 years, don't expect a lot from a storm like this. Congratulate our fellow Metro posters for their storm and be happy to put down some snow up this way. It will certainly last this time around. And, if by chance, the storm surprises, it's a win-win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 2-4" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall.Truth. We typically need a track inside the benchmark or it needs to be a rather large storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Snywx. I like the rgem. U post it once in awhile. I think we're in for a decent snowfall. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Truth. We typically need a track inside the benchmark or it needs to be a rather large storm. Yeap.. Our "benchmark" is about 50-100 miles closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Snywx. I like the rgem. U post it once in awhile. I think we're in for a decent snowfall. Your thoughts? 2-4" for us in the deep interior.. 4-8" for areas along the coast and immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Remember, there was high wind at the mid levels, so the ratios were suffering. This time, it's not going be like that. The coast very rarely has ratios better than 12:1.. Too many influences along the immediate coast. If your expecting anything more than that you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Up here on the other hand have seen many events where ratios were high. I can't tell you how many times I have seen a storm generate strong winds along the coast where we have calm to lgt winds with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just dropping in to say goid luck to all, and glad most of northeast from dc to portsmouth nh as well as areas inland get accums. It really just depends on where best banding sets up and how far nw good lift gets. Model qpf is for qpf queens in this scenario where bandin signal is robust. Under banding in this storm Ratiio's will be high. That is extremely likely. Wether coast or nw burbs , snow growth temps support it , now u just need banding lift to materialize, where it does Ratiio's Are not really much of a question Look how far nw 7H VV's get and if that is accurate areas under those and 10 or so miles nw will get low end warning snows. Lots of subsidence just nw of that band and much lower totals. Sharp cut off and now cast for many. But many know this ...good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeap.. Our "benchmark" is about 50-100 miles closer to the coast. Fully agree, if there is no threat for rain or sleet along the coast or in the city than we are almost surely going to miss on the larger amounts. My over/under for this being a good event up here is 3-5", less and I'll be bummed and more I'll consider a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like they just posted a WWA for Orange and Putnam- 4-6 inches. I'll be happy with that. I'm at the lower end of orange county so we will see. But hopefully we all make out ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just saw the latest RGEM posted in the main forum. Looks like we may be smoking cirrus (as they say in the NE forum) while places just to the SE get heavy snow. Thinking 2-4 might be a little on the high side for my backyard. Will be interesting to see what the GFS does, as the NAM and RGEM definitely shifted a touch SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREF Snow Plume Mean.. POU: 11.9" MSV: 8.6" HPN: 14.9" Srefs continue to increase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Starting to think this is a 1-3/2-4 type deal if I'm lucky. This is one nasty cut off for as far west as myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just saw the latest RGEM posted in the main forum. Looks like we may be smoking cirrus (as they say in the NE forum) while places just to the SE get heavy snow. Thinking 2-4 might be a little on the high side for my backyard. Will be interesting to see what the GFS does, as the NAM and RGEM definitely shifted a touch SE. 18z RGEM continues to advertise a 2-4", 3-5" storm for the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z RGEM continues to advertise a 2-4", 3-5" storm for the area.. It had a decent tick s.e with the qpf axis vs. 12z though, that's for sure. Which is a nail biter for folks like myself that are literately on the fence lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It had a decent tick s.e with the qpf axis vs. 12z though, that's for sure. Which is a nail biter for folks like myself that are literately on the fence lol. I don't think I have ever seen the Srefs & the NAM this far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah, it's pretty incredible. Would be nice to see the 0z nam come around a bit more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z GFS precip amounts.. MGJ- .30" SWF- .38" POU- .36" FWN- .37 3-4" w/ 10:1 ratios.. 6-8" w/ 20:1 ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z GFS precip amounts.. MGJ- .30" SWF- .38" POU- .36" FWN- .37 3-4" w/ 10:1 ratios.. 6-8" w/ 20:1 ratios.. If we can just whip this horse to trend a little more nw maybe we can overachieve and get into 6-10. But like I said earlier - 4-6 with arctic temps would be just fine. I saw someone post that the 4-6 contour was getting to Sullivan county - if that works out then I think it bodes well for us. What do you think snywx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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