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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - Discussion


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Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 1-3" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall.

 

You may be right, bit the trends have been positive.

I feel comfortable with a general 4-6 snowfall for the NW zones.

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9z SREF Snow Plume Mean..

 

POU -- 10.2" 

MSV -- 6.3"

HPN -- 12.2"

 

Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 1-3" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall.

 

Nice follow up post to the crazy SREF data! Totally agree though, and I'll take 2-4" and run with it.  Should be a nice way to kick off a great stretch of cold weather. 

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Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 2-4" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall.

The way things have been trending I won't be surprised if it's similar to the early Jan storm that dumped about 7 inches by me. I also won't be surprised if we get 1-3. If this storm tucks in another 30-50 miles I think that would put us all in for maybe 4-6. But who knows? At least it sounds like we are heading into a favorable pattern for some chances going forward if this doesn't pan out for us.

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Nice follow up post to the crazy SREF data! Totally agree though, and I'll take 2-4" and run with it.  Should be a nice way to kick off a great stretch of cold weather. 

 

Yeah the SREFs are all by themselves.. The trends have def been in our favor but it has had to trend a looong way to even give us 2-4" I wouldn't expect it to continue. Anything additional would be a bonus.

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Yeah the SREFs are all by themselves.. The trends have def been in our favor but it has had to trend a looong way to even give us 2-4" I wouldn't expect it to continue. Anything additional would be a bonus.

 

I think 2-4" is easily on the table.  Doubt we'd go any higher.  The most recent NAM and GFS give us about 2-3" here in Poughkeepsie (going by the data).

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I think 2-4" is easily on the table.  Doubt we'd go any higher.  The most recent NAM and GFS give us about 2-3" here in Poughkeepsie (going by the data).

 

Yeah I agree..  In the last 24 hrs we have trended a long way to even give us 2-4". To expect it to continue to trend is a setup for disappointment.

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12z RGEM/GGEM gives most of the area a 3-5" swath... ( not including) enhanced snow ratios but we all know what happened last time. Temps in the single digits and barely had 12:1 ratios.

 

Seems like so many of these storms in recent years have been coastal scrapers, so to speak.  It's been a few years since we've had a classical Noreaster that throws widespread 1' amounts deep into the interior. 

 

So, another storm where we get shafted while the coastal areas celebrate? No thanks.

 

Live by the sword, die by the sword.  I've finally accepted my fate after living here almost 10 years, don't expect a lot from a storm like this.  Congratulate our fellow Metro posters for their storm and be happy to put down some snow up this way.  It will certainly last this time around.  And, if by chance, the storm surprises, it's a win-win!

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Remember what I said guys... If the immediate coast is expecting an all snow event do not expect much up here. 2-4" should be the max. I can see areas in N NJ receiving up to 4-5" but the fun is gonna be for the immediate coast where 6-10" looks to fall.

Truth. We typically need a track inside the benchmark or it needs to be a rather large storm.
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Remember, there was high wind at the mid levels, so the ratios were suffering. This time, it's not going be like that.

The coast very rarely has ratios better than 12:1.. Too many influences along the immediate coast. If your expecting anything more than that you are setting yourself up for disappointment. Up here on the other hand have seen many events where ratios were high. I can't tell you how many times I have seen a storm generate strong winds along the coast where we have calm to lgt winds with snow

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Just dropping in to say goid luck to all, and glad most of northeast from dc to portsmouth nh as well as areas inland get accums.

It really just depends on where best banding sets up and how far nw good lift gets. Model qpf is for qpf queens in this scenario where bandin signal is robust. Under banding in this storm Ratiio's will be high. That is extremely likely. Wether coast or nw burbs , snow growth temps support it , now u just need banding lift to materialize, where it does Ratiio's Are not really much of a question

Look how far nw 7H VV's get and if that is accurate areas under those and 10 or so miles nw will get low end warning snows. Lots of subsidence just nw of that band and much lower totals. Sharp cut off and now cast for many. But many know this ...good luck.

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Yeap.. Our "benchmark" is about 50-100 miles closer to the coast.

Fully agree, if there is no threat for rain or sleet along the coast or in the city than we are almost surely going to miss on the larger amounts.  My over/under for this being a good event up here is 3-5", less and I'll be bummed and more I'll consider a bonus.

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Just saw the latest RGEM posted in the main forum.  Looks like we may be smoking cirrus (as they say in the NE forum) while places just to the SE get heavy snow.  Thinking 2-4 might be a little on the high side for my backyard.  Will be interesting to see what the GFS does, as the NAM and RGEM definitely shifted a touch SE. 

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Just saw the latest RGEM posted in the main forum.  Looks like we may be smoking cirrus (as they say in the NE forum) while places just to the SE get heavy snow.  Thinking 2-4 might be a little on the high side for my backyard.  Will be interesting to see what the GFS does, as the NAM and RGEM definitely shifted a touch SE. 

 

18z RGEM continues to advertise a 2-4", 3-5" storm for the area..

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18z GFS precip amounts..

MGJ- .30"

SWF- .38"

POU- .36"

FWN- .37

3-4" w/ 10:1 ratios..

6-8" w/ 20:1 ratios..

If we can just whip this horse to trend a little more nw maybe we can overachieve and get into 6-10.

But like I said earlier - 4-6 with arctic temps would be just fine. I saw someone post that the 4-6 contour was getting to Sullivan county - if that works out then I think it bodes well for us. What do you think snywx?

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