Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[HurricaneJosh]

What about Easy 1950?  It didn't go directly over Tampa but then again neither did 1921. 

Easy 1950 was up in Cedar Key.

 

A direct hit means the inner core (not necessarily the eye) passed over the city-- which is what happened in 1921.  Another example of a direct hit without being in the eye would be Mobile, AL, in Frederic 1979.

[SunnyFL]

What about Easy 1950?  It didn't go directly over Tampa but then again neither did 1921. 

I think the eyewall of Easy touched Pinellas and Pasco counties as it moved slowly north.  There was also a cat 1 in the mid 40s that moved directly up from the south. In this area with our population and lack of storms recently, a cat 1 would be a huge deal.  Also, this is the anniversary of the 1896 Cedar Key hurricane, which wiped out Cedar Key (killed 100) and allowed Tampa to become the port city on the FL West Coast. 

[phil882]

Again I don't see how this gets stronger than what I've outlined earlier. Relatively strong shear. If this thing doesn't go bonkers in the next 48 hours in the Caribbean there won't be much more than a sheared TS in the GOM. 

[HurricaneJosh]

I think the eyewall of Easy touched Pinellas and Pasco counties as it moved slowly north.  There was also a cat 1 in the mid 40s that moved directly up from the south. In this area with our population and lack of storms recently, a cat 1 would be a huge deal.  Also, this is the anniversary of the 1896 Cedar Key hurricane, which wiped out Cedar Key (killed 100) and allowed Tampa to become the port city on the FL West Coast. 

 

Easy's core did not affect Tampa or St. Petersburg but came close.

 

The Gulf Coast of FL around Tampa actually saw a few hurricanes in the mid-1940s-- listed below, with landfall points.  The one you're talking about was the 1946 storm.  Although none were major, direct hits, there were a lot of impacts on the metro area:

 

Oct 1944 - Venice, FL - 90 kt

Jun 1945 - Brooksville, FL - 70 kt

Oct 1946 - Brandenton, FL - 75 kt

[icebreaker5221]

Easy 1950 was up in Cedar Key.

 

A direct hit means the inner core (not necessarily the eye) passed over the city-- which is what happened in 1921.  Another example of a direct hit without being in the eye would be Mobile, AL, in Frederic 1979.

 

Yes, I'm aware that being within the eyewall still constitutes a direct hit.  I was under the impression the core of Easy did go over Tampa but it appears I was mistaken. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Yes, I'm aware that being within the eyewall still constitutes a direct hit.  I was under the impression the core of Easy did go over Tampa but it appears I was mistaken. 

 

Nope, it didn't.  Tampa/St. Petersburg has gone longer than any other major population center along the Gulf Coast without a direct hit from a major.

[SunnyFL]

In talking with some of the locals over the years, it is very likely that the eyewall came onshore or extremely close during Easy.  Of course, there is no way to know. I recently spoke with a 78 year old who has lived here is whole life. He said the worst storm he has ever seen was Easy '50, nothing else has come close.  He said whole houses on Clearwater Beach were being swept into the Gulf.  

 

The Oct 1946 "hurricane" is shown making landfall on the coast of Manatee Co then the next point is north of Pinellas Co as a TS. So it would've had to go directly over Pinellas/Tampa Bay to get between the two points as it made a transition from Cat 1 to TS.  Still probably a wet and windy Oct storm but the center very likely came directly over.

[HurricaneJosh]

In talking with some of the locals over the years, it is very likely that the eyewall came onshore or extremely close during Easy.  Of course, there is no way to know. I recently spoke with a 78 year old who has lived here is whole life. He said the worst storm he has ever seen was Easy '50, nothing else has come close.  He said whole houses on Clearwater Beach were being swept into the Gulf.

I read the reanalysis of Easy, done by Andrew Hagen a couple of years ago, and it seemed like the core stayed just offshore of Pinellas County. The center got no closer than ~30-40 mi, and the RMW wasn't that big-- only ~15 n mi. Up N, where it came ashore, it was a very severe storm-- a high-end Cat 3 and possibly higher.

 

The Oct 1946 "hurricane" is shown making landfall on the coast of Manatee Co then the next point is north of Pinellas Co as a TS. So it would've had to go directly over Pinellas/Tampa Bay to get between the two points as it made a transition from Cat 1 to TS.  Still probably a wet and windy Oct storm but the center very likely came directly over.

Why do you say "hurricane" in quotes? It was a hurricane-- at least as per recent reanalysis. The landfall point was set at 27.5N 82.6W: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/1944-1953_Published_Paper.pdf

[SunnyFL]

I don't understand how the 1946 Hurricane is not considered a direct hit on Tampa Bay. But no one talks about it and there isn't much record of damage.  Without recon/radar we won't know.

[HurricaneJosh]

I don't understand how the 1946 Hurricane is not considered a direct hit on Tampa Bay. But no one talks about it and there isn't much record of damage.  Without recon/radar we won't know.

Huh? It is considered a direct hit.

It just wasn't a major. But it's considered the last direct hurricane hit on the city.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Ha ha ha, thanks for posting this.  

 

Wilma was awesome.  No, it wasn't a tight-core deal when it hit FL, but it was just very robust and powerful.  It was a great storm.  I'll never forget that backside, after the eye passed-- how potent it was.

 

The backside was pretty strong. I think it caught a lot of people off guard. Was also my first and only time I was in the eye of a hurricane. 

[DopplerWx]

18z gfs has it even weaker and hitting the keys after traversing cuba thru 96.

[hurricaneman]

The GFS and FIM seem to be trending weaker while the other models seem to be trending stronger so at this point I don't know which will be right. The 18zGFS is weaker due to transversing the length of Cuba which if it doesn't do that it would most likely be stronger

[DopplerWx]

at 120 looks like what's left is coming off the eastern coast of fl.

[Eyewall2005]

i'll take it at this point ..

 

[HurricaneFrances04]

^ Yup, GFS has it going right over me....which means it ain't gonna happen. 

[hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS is developing in that area of convection at 14N 73W when the best vorticity is with the wave at 13.9N 77.5W which would make all the difference in possible landfall location next week so that could be a case of convective feedback from the GFS which it sometimes has problems with but not to the degree of the CMC

[wxtrackercody]

Tropical Depression 11 has formed in the central Atlantic:

 

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962013_al112013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309290124
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[AutoPenalti]

Gotta love that forecast track.

[Ed Lizard]

Bad week to be a TC in the Gulf...

[Ed Lizard]

Gotta love that forecast track.

Stolen from Facebook...

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Bad week to be a TC in the Gulf...

Season o' fail. The season where everything that can go wrong does go wrong.

So over it. I'm basically just going to ignore the NATL and focus on the Pacific. Both sides of it.

[Sunny and Warm]

what a freaking mess TD11 is.  It could go from either a hit on Portugal or it could smoke the Caribbean islands.  That just about covers every eventuality under the sun.

 

 

[Superstorm93]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309291245
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

 

 

[Srain]

Track and intensity early guidance for 97L

[Ed Lizard]

I hate to wish a Mitch that kills tens of thousands on any poor people in Central America, but the only way 97L ever becomes more than a minimal hurricane, more likely just a TS, is to do what Mitch did, defy forecasts to move out of the Caribbean*, and stay down over high OHC and under favorable shear.

 

5 day 12Z GFS position North of the Yucatan puts it in 20 to 25 knots of SW shear, with the 2 inch plus PW pushed to the East of the Center.

 

Same upper forecast says if 97L can somehow stay South of the Yucatan Channel, it'd be under an anticyclone.

 

0Z Canadian develops a point anticyclone over the top of 97L in the Gulf, but even the Canadian is a high end TS battling dry air issues.

 

Everyone knows of my super-weenie optimism, but this thing is toast if it comes into the Gulf before it becomes well established, and even then, will likely be weakening as it approaches land.

 

SHIPS doesn't like it...  http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13092912AL9713_ships.txt

 

(* Three day forecast had it moving Northwest between the Caymans and Cuba, or on its way to the Gulf, the Southwest turn was not well forecast.  It was 15 years ago, of course)

[Sunny and Warm]

I hate to wish a Mitch that kills tens of thousands on any poor people in Central America, but the only way 97L ever becomes more than a minimal hurricane, more likely just a TS, is to do what Mitch did, defy forecasts to move out of the Caribbean*, and stay down over high OHC and under favorable shear.

 

5 day 12Z GFS position North of the Yucatan puts it in 20 to 25 knots of SW shear, with the 2 inch plus PW pushed to the East of the Center.

 

Same upper forecast says if 97L can somehow stay South of the Yucatan Channel, it'd be under an anticyclone.

 

0Z Canadian develops a point anticyclone over the top of 97L in the Gulf, but even the Canadian is a high end TS battling dry air issues.

 

Everyone knows of my super-weenie optimism, but this thing is toast if it comes into the Gulf before it becomes well established, and even then, will likely be weakening as it approaches land.

 

SHIPS doesn't like it...  http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13092912AL9713_ships.txt

 

(* Three day forecast had it moving Northwest between the Caymans and Cuba, or on its way to the Gulf, the Southwest turn was not well forecast.  It was 15 years ago, of course)

I know you're not suggesting otherwise, but the difference in model accuracy from when Mitch was around to now is astounding.  I can't imagine at least some models not sniffing out a "Mitch" scenario by now if it were in the cards. 

[Ed Lizard]

I know you're not suggesting otherwise, but the difference in model accuracy from when Mitch was around to now is astounding.  I can't imagine at least some models not sniffing out a "Mitch" scenario by now if it were in the cards. 

 

The '15 years ago' comment was in regards to improvements in track forecasting.  Main point, this is a dead invest walking if it follows most guidance into the Gulf.

[HurricaneJosh]

It's weird, though, that:

 

1)  The NHC's TWO wording seems to suggest the SE Gulf will be hospitable:  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

 

2) The intensity guidance, while not exactly amazeballz, doesn't show any substantial weakening later in the period, when it would presumably be gaining latitude.  (There's  some leveling off or slight decrease after 84 h, but nothing dramatic.)

 

I know I'm grasping at straws here, but perhaps the future isn't as grim as is being suggested.

[HurricaneJosh]

Did I imagine it, or did the GFS really just totally crap out with 97L?