wxtrackercody Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Sometimes I don't know how to interpret these weak systems from the NHC. Yes they are insignificant in the long run, but if you have a closed circulation with winds near gale force and its producing convection thats as organized as Humberto was for a 12-24 hour period, isn't that a tropical cyclone? These are the systems that really reveal how ambiguous the marginal TC identification process is. I think the primary reason Humberto was kept a tropical cyclone was for continuity. After all, the first NHC advisory after regeneration called for the system to re-attain hurricane intensity within 120 hours. The vertical wind shear from the upper-level low was forecast to lessen...but it never did. If shear was forecast to remain high right off the bat, I don't think they would've re-designated it as a cyclone. But yeah, the definition is ambiguous/subjective: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 That Mandarin is mind-blowingly boring, in my opinion-- just ugly, cheap, low-potential, high-latitude schlock. Let's hope the SW Caribbean thing develops. snob But yes you are right... from a chasing perspective this system is low grade stuff you typically ignore. The system in the Caribbean is perhaps slightly more interesting, but compared to the potential here to 95L and Ingrid its lower (WAY too dry + too much VWS). Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 00Z GFS has a low west of SW Florida at 144, and actually the shear over it is not that horrific. Not expecting a gangbusters system but even a strong TS threatening the US would be an improvement in this P.O.S. season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 snob But yes you are right... from a chasing perspective this system is low grade stuff you typically ignore. The system in the Caribbean is perhaps slightly more interesting, but compared to the potential here to 95L and Ingrid its lower (WAY too dry + too much VWS). Sorry. Well, the 00Z GFS is coming in now, and it shows something in the SE Gulf that's a lot more robust than anything else we've seen modeled recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 I think the primary reason Humberto was kept a tropical cyclone was for continuity. After all, the first NHC advisory after regeneration called for the system to re-attain hurricane intensity within 120 hours. The vertical wind shear from the upper-level low was forecast to lessen...but it never did. If shear was forecast to remain high right off the bat, I don't think they would've re-designated it as a cyclone. But yeah, the definition is ambiguous/subjective: The vertical wind shear did lessen, but the upper-level jet dynamics never overcame the marginal SSTs + relatively dry mid-latitude air. Once another much larger mid-latitude trough came to take its place, the convection over Humberto wasn't deep enough to have any sort of jet impact that could have allowed baroclinic enhancement. But yes your point remains, continuity does play a role in these operational real-time forecasts, and hopefully thats something that ultimately gets cleared up by the TCR at the end of the season. With 96L, ultimately it wouldn't take much more convective organization to make this system a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 00Z GFS has a low west of SW Florida at 144, and actually the shear over it is not that horrific. Not expecting a gangbusters system but even a strong TS threatening the US would be an improvement in this P.O.S. season. Yep, was just noticing this as well (see my last post). It's actually strengthening up to Day 5 or 6. At least the trend is positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Well, the 00Z GFS is coming in now, and it shows something in the SE Gulf that's a lot more robust than anything else we've seen modeled recently. Yep the new 00z GFS is quite a bit stronger, but still doesn't suggest anything we didn't already see with Ingrid (sheared high end TS / low end HU). A lot of the intensification in the GOM is due to a favorable upper-level trough interaction enhancing poleward outflow. We'll see how much that exceptionally dry air in the GOM can moisten up over the next 48 hours, since its clear this disturbance won't be in a low shear environment and could struggle against frequent dry air intrusions into the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 The setup looks good for a Florida TC. The mid level trough axis is far enough west (W of 85) and there is stout ridging over the western Atlantic, east of the trough, to provide southerly as opposed to SW steering. If it forms, I don't see it escaping out to the NE underneath south Florida and through the Bahamas. Josh, if I lived on the west coast, I'd invite you over for dinner and babysitting, but you may be looking at a late season FL gulf coast chase next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 The setup looks good for a Florida TC. The mid level trough axis is far enough west (W of 85) and there is stout ridging over the western Atlantic, east of the trough, to provide southerly as opposed to SW steering. If it forms, I don't see it escaping out to the NE underneath south Florida and through the Bahamas. Josh, if I lived on the west coast, I'd invite you over for dinner and babysitting, but you may be looking at a late season FL gulf coast chase next week! Well, this is encouraging. I like your take a little more than Phil's. What do you think of its prospects, intensity-wise, once it gets into the Gulf? Are you as negative on it as Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Well, this is encouraging. I like your take a little more than Phil's. What do you think of its prospects, intensity-wise, once it gets into the Gulf? Are you as negative on it as Phil? I think the increasing shear from about 25N northward should be counteracted by the fact that it looks strongly divergent, which is essentially saying the same thing as Phil (i.e. the jet is enhancing poleward outflow). A lot will depend on how fast/to what extent it spins up before it emerges north of the LAT of Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 The 0Z GFS solution only has validity if the ECWMF also latches onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 The 0Z GFS solution only has validity if the ECWMF also latches onto it. The ECM actually showed a very similar solution last night. Now for tonight, it trended weaker and much farther west. I hope it's a blip and not "The Great Black Cloud of 2013 TC Suckiness" rearing its ugly head again. More importantly, however, I didn't get Josh's hopes up for the prospect of a late season FL chase for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 The ECM actually showed a very similar solution last night. Now for tonight, it trended weaker and much farther west. I hope it's a blip and not "The Great Black Cloud of 2013 TC Suckiness" rearing its ugly head again. More importantly, however, I didn't get Josh's hopes up for the prospect of a late season FL chase for no reason. Don't worry-- I'm pretty numb at this point-- and also starting to think beyond North America for action. There's just some kind of curse sitting over the continent this year. I suppose we all might have felt this way in 1982 or 1983-- but this year somehow feels uniquely bad. I've been advised that another MJO pulse is going to be coming through the EPAC in a week or two and the NATL a little after that. Let's see if that can bring any last hurrahs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Don't worry-- I'm pretty numb at this point-- and also starting to think beyond North America for action. There's just some kind of curse sitting over the continent this year. I suppose we all might have felt this way in 1982 or 1983-- but this year somehow feels uniquely bad. I've been advised that another MJO pulse is going to be coming through the EPAC in a week or two and the NATL a little after that. Let's see if that can bring any last hurrahs. 1983 was eons better... at least we had Alicia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 1983 was eons better... at least we had Alicia. Alicia was awesome, but besides that, it was really pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 My guess why this year was so quiet so far compared to recent years is the change in SST's coupled with the dry and more stable conditions that we have been seeing in recent years. While 2011 and 2012 had their share of dry and more stable conditions, I believe the warmer SST's may have helped both years not get shut down to the extent that we saw this year. The change in SST's this year relative to the last 2 years shows cooler SST's over the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean along with the Far North Atlantic. Notice how the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean along with areas east of Florida had more suppressed convection compared to the last two years. The enhanced African Convection during 2011 and 2012 was able to extend west to over the Tropical Atlantic while it got shut down this year with the cooler SST's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 0Z FIM-9 more cheerful, 18Z FIM took a tropical storm through the Yucatan Channel, and then started weakening it during is entire trip through the Gulf, probably not even a TS at the end of the run while still offshore. Still not onshore at Hour 168, but 60-65 knots, and heading slightly East of due North towards MS/AL/Western Panhandle. And it is strengthening in the Gulf. No Ivan or Opal, but beggars and choosers and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 My guess why this year was so quiet so far compared to recent years is the change in SST's coupled with the dry and more stable conditions that we have been seeing in recent years. While 2011 and 2012 had their share of dry and more stable conditions, I believe the warmer SST's may have helped both years not get shut down to the extent that we saw this year. The change in SST's this year relative to the last 2 years shows cooler SST's over the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean along with the Far North Atlantic. Notice how the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean along with areas east of Florida had more suppressed convection compared to the last two years. The enhanced African Convection during 2011 and 2012 was able to extend west to over the Tropical Atlantic while it got shut down this year with the cooler SST's. SSTB.png SST.png A13.png A12.png A11.png Sea surface temperatures have been 28-29C throughout. I doubt that's the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Deep tropical convection continues to fester in the Western Caribbean and the 00Z Multi Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities continue to increase. The reliable models suggest a general slow NW motion over the next several days. I suspect we will see 97L before the weekend is over. A strong fall cold front is expected to drop S into the Southern Plains and Texas next weekend. If this disturbance can lift far enough N into the Gulf during the mid week time frame, conditions may be conducive for development before westerly shear begins to impact this potential cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 How many more days until the Wilma Florida anniversary? 8 years w/o a Florida hurricane would be the biggest fail yet. I now know why Steve's ensemble probabilities are always so optimistic, usually far too optimistic. Every CMC ensemble generating a Cat 6 will skew the numbers. But the FIM is on board, GFS is showing it, even the Euro hinted at it. More than glass half full on an invest. The big chore, getting at least a Cat 1 to hit Florida before the Wilma anniversary. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4FFdatvTtM Nostalgia... Oh good, have almost a month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 well 12z GFS has a weak ts making landfall on the sw coast of florida around 126 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Eh. Just more false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Ugh. Jeez, at least it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 The shear doesn't look super favorable, but this thing would still have a chance if the shear didn't have so much dry air to push into the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 How many more days until the Wilma Florida anniversary? 8 years w/o a Florida hurricane would be the biggest fail yet. I now know why Steve's ensemble probabilities are always so optimistic, usually far too optimistic. Every CMC ensemble generating a Cat 6 will skew the numbers. But the FIM is on board, GFS is showing it, even the Euro hinted at it. More than glass half full on an invest. The big chore, getting at least a Cat 1 to hit Florida before the Wilma anniversary. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4FFdatvTtM Nostalgia... Oh good, have almost a month... Ha ha ha, thanks for posting this. Wilma was awesome. No, it wasn't a tight-core deal when it hit FL, but it was just very robust and powerful. It was a great storm. I'll never forget that backside, after the eye passed-- how potent it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 12z Euro shows it, just takes longer than GFS. Something to watch here in Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 yep comes off western tip of cuba almost identical to the gfs just 24 hrs slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Sea surface temperatures have been 28-29C throughout. I doubt that's the issue. But the change in where the warmer anomalies are located this year relative to the last few is the most obvious difference. Just looking at the at the what the actual SST's are won't tell you the whole story. These SST's the result of this being the first summer since 2006 with a +NAO which is a big change from the -NAO dominated 2007-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 12z Euro shows it, just takes longer than GFS. Something to watch here in Tampa. Yeah, the GFS has been really consistent about the Tampa area for a couple of runs now. P.S. As your probably now, the last time a major hit to Tampa was Oct 1921. Cool trivia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Yeah, the GFS has been really consistent about the Tampa area for a couple of runs now. P.S. As your probably now, the last time a major hit Tampa was Oct 1921. Cool trivia. What about Easy 1950? It didn't go directly over Tampa but then again neither did 1921. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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