Momza Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Predicting a harsh winter and a snowy Super Bowl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I would expect a mild winter then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I would expect a mild winter then. TRUE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Let's see what happens. I have lots of experience with the Farmers Almanac and the accuracy it has is okay, but not amazing. It's like looking at the ECMWF/GFS at Days 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Let's see what happens. I have lots of experience with the Farmers Almanac and the accuracy it has is okay, but not amazing. It's like looking at the ECMWF/GFS at Days 10-15. But I feel like based on climatology most people could take a stab in the dark and be pretty accurate. If I say the day of the superbowl will be partly cloudy with highs between 35 and 45 I have a pretty decent chance of being right based on absolutely nothing but taking the average of the past 30 super bowl sundays in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 But I feel like based on climatology most people could take a stab in the dark and be pretty accurate. If I say the day of the superbowl will be partly cloudy with highs between 35 and 45 I have a pretty decent chance of being right based on absolutely nothing but taking the average of the past 30 super bowl sundays in our area.It doesn't hurt that a large percentage of the KU storms are around that time, after the January thaw and before the late February warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 I have a copy of the 1966-67 almanac and it said we should get a good old fashion winter...not bad...They actually were pretty good with snow predictions 40 years ago...they blew 1995-96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 I have a copy of the 1966-67 almanac and it said we should get a good old fashion winter...not bad...They actually were pretty good with snow predictions 40 years ago...they blew 1995-96...What did they come in with for 1995-96? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 As long as we stay in a Nina phase I would call it a crapshoot for our area. The Gulf of Alaska is warmer than years past so that seems like a good development. Overall, it looks more exciting now for New England than here (surprise, surprise). But it's only Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 As long as we stay in a Nina phase I would call it a crapshoot for our area. The Gulf of Alaska is warmer than years past so that seems like a good development. Overall, it looks more exciting now for New England than here (surprise, surprise). But it's only Labor Day.I agree about the warm Gulf of Alaska, but I'd like to see some cooling south of the Aleutians to promote more of an Aleutian low and +PDO pattern. That allows for a +PNA as well as EPO ridging over Alaska to bring the cold onto the North American side. We look to be headed towards a weak Nina or cold neutral ENSO state which can really go either way in our area...we have some blockbusters in that state like 66-67 and 95-96 as well as some dead ratters like 11-12. A lot depends on the NAO, which is nearly impossible to predict this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 both farmers almanacs are predicting a cold and snowy winter... http://www.almanac.com/content/almanacs-long-range-weather-forecast-us-and-canada http://www.farmersalmanac.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 both farmers almanacs are predicting a cold and snowy winter... http://www.almanac.com/content/almanacs-long-range-weather-forecast-us-and-canada http://www.farmersalmanac.com/ Yep, so if it's a torch, both books will have some serious explaining to do. I've gotten the Old farmer's almanac since the early 2000s, and while from this range I think it's generally guesswork, they have had a surprising number of hits in terms of the winter forecast (most namely, 2002-03, 2001-02 hit the warm winter, 2003-04, 2007-08, and 2009 through 2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Yep, so if it's a torch, both books will have some serious explaining to do. I've gotten the Old farmer's almanac since the early 2000s, and while from this range I think it's generally guesswork, they have had a surprising number of hits in terms of the winter forecast (most namely, 2002-03, 2001-02 hit the warm winter, 2003-04, 2007-08, and 2009 through 2011). I have almanacs going back to 1966-67...I might have to get rid of them when I move...I know they nailed the early 70's snow wise...the one thing they did get right in 1995-96 was 'precipitation above average along the coast'...with that in mind why did they go with less snow than average?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I have almanacs going back to 1966-67...I might have to get rid of them when I move...I know they nailed the early 70's snow wise...the one thing they did get right in 1995-96 was 'precipitation above average along the coast'...with that in mind why did they go with less snow than average?... Missed the blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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