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Cutoff low woes


OKpowdah

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This is quite an anomalous situation being forecast. Model guidance has actually been quite good with projecting this general development for several days now, but of course when it comes something like this unfolding, there will be a lot of spread in the specifics.

 

Unfortunately I have no time to talk about much of anything with finals approaching quickly, but I wanted to see if we could get some discussion on what might shape up to be a historic event (meteorologically, not necessarily sensible weather)

 

post-128-0-74705500-1367418790_thumb.gif

 

GFS:

 

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NAM:

 

post-128-0-45324500-1367418968_thumb.gif

 

ECMWF:

 

post-128-0-89822800-1367418973_thumb.gif

 

 

 

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just to add a bit of fuel to the fire....  here's the latest snowfall total extrapolation from the 12z Canadian regional output, going out 48 hours...  the amounts shown are liquid equivalent, so you'll have to extrapolate snow totals from that... 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2013050112/2013050112_054_R1_centrecan_I_QPFTYPES_sn_048.png

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Friday may become the coldest day on record for my site for May. Coldest recorded May low is 9C (48F), but with a high of 26C(80F) on 05/03/2004. This time it will be cloudy with strong CAA. To put it in perspective, Jan 5-12th has the coldest average days at  68/46 ... quite similar to what's forecasted for friday.

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Friday may become the coldest day on record for my site for May. Coldest recorded May low is 9C (48F), but with a high of 26C(80F) on 05/03/2004. This time it will be cloudy with strong CAA. To put it in perspective, Jan 5-12th has the coldest average days at  68/46 ... quite similar to what's forecasted for friday.

 

Weren't you guys well above 100 F back in early April, too? I know I saw some 106-108 readings on the TX side right before the crashing front that plastered half the SP with ice.

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Weren't you guys well above 100 F back in early April, too? I know I saw some 106-108 readings on the TX side right before the crashing front that plastered half the SP with ice.

Yep, 107F Apr 15th. Just 95F today at MMMY and 100f at MMAN.

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Walk outside this morning and get blased with Rain/Sleet/Snow (just started to accumulate on the grass). Now I see the total snow forecasted for my area went up pretty substantially overnight to 3-5" and locally higher amounts today. Already historic for Iowa. First time there has been an at least an inch reported anywhere in the state since 1967 and multiple inches of snow having occurred only 10 times over the past 125 years anywhere in the state.

 

*edit*

Another perspective of how historic this is from DMX's Facebook page. Last time the city of Des Moines recorded over an inch of snow in May was in 1907. So far the airport is over an inch. Pretty sure MBY is closer to 2". Problem is that it's not piling up as quickly today even with it coming down at a good rate due to ground temps.

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Only the 3rd time in recorded history it has snowed in May with an official 1" in TOP... accompanied by 1.42" of rain. Hopefully this liquid helps to fight the drought. The Kaw River is flowing 2.5 feet higher than it was 24 hrs ago at 6.7 feet (flood stage is 26 feet).

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