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Guess the 2013 SIE, SIA and volume minimum

skierinvermont

By skierinvermont,
in Climate Change

  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Guess the extent minimum (JAXA)

    • 5.5+
      0
    • 5.25-5.5
      1
    • 5-5.25
      0
    • 4.75-5
      3
    • 4.5-4.75
      3
    • 4.25-4.5
      1
    • 4-4.25
      2
    • 3.75-4
      7
    • 3.5-3.75
      2
    • 3.25-3.5
      1
    • 3-3.25
      0
    • under 3
      3

  2. 2. Guess the minimum area (Cryosphere Today)

    • 4+
      1
    • 3.75-4
      1
    • 3.5-3.75
      1
    • 3.25-3.5
      2
    • 3-3.25
      4
    • 2.75-3
      1
    • 2.5-2.75
      7
    • 2.25-2.5
      2
    • 2-2.25
      1
    • 1.75-2
      0
    • 1.5-1.75
      1
    • under 1.5
      2

  3. 3. Guess the minimum volume

    • 5.5+
      0
    • 5.25-5.5
      0
    • 5-5.25
      0
    • 4.75-5
      3
    • 4.5-4.75
      1
    • 4.25-4.5
      2
    • 4-4.25
      1
    • 3.75-4
      1
    • 3.5-3.75
      4
    • 3.25-3.5
      1
    • 3-3.25
      1
    • 2.75-3
      3
    • 2.5-2.75
      3
    • 2.25-2.5
      0
    • 2-2.25
      0
    • under 2
      3

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

Unless anybody suggests something better for sources I'll use the following. Also it would be great if everybody would post their guesses below. 

 

For SIE the source will be JAXA. 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent_prev.htm

 

 

For SIA the source will be Cryosphere Today.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

 

 

For volume the source will be PIOMAS.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/2011_sea_ice_PIOMAS_min.png

 

The above chart doesn't show 2012 but it was 3.3. Daily values can be downloaded here: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

 

 

 

For reference, the current volume anomaly can be found here:

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time%28%29%20?

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Good poll!  Thanks for posting it.  The Admins still won't let me start new threads so I appreciate your doing so.

 

Have you tried PMing them about it? Ask Mallow. It has to be some kind of glitch or mistake. I can't think of any reason you wouldn't be allowed to start threads. 

 

Also, you were aware that the PIOMAS chart only ran through 2011? 2012 was 3.3. I just found it kind of odd you would guess below me for SIE and SIA but above me for volume.

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PhillipS

PhillipS

Posted
Posted

Have you tried PMing them about it? Ask Mallow. It has to be some kind of glitch or mistake. I can't think of any reason you wouldn't be allowed to start threads. 

 

Also, you were aware that the PIOMAS chart only ran through 2011? 2012 was 3.3. I just found it kind of odd you would guess below me for SIE and SIA but above me for volume.

 

I've traded PMs about my being barred from posting new threads with the admin Wow a while back and his responses distilled down to 'Don't care - Too bad'.   They took away my privilege back about the time of the uproar over Vergent being banned.  I feel it was because I was critical about the mods and admins - I have no warning points so they couldn't ban me totally (at least if they followed the rules) but they could, and did, remove my ability to start new threads.

 

As for my guesses in your poll - I freely admit they are SWAGs without any robust analysis behind them.  You're right, my guess about volume should have been lower.  I just eyeballed the PIOMAS chart at Neven's blog.  BTW, the PIOMAS chart I posted on the SIE thread is current through Jan 2013.

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PhillipS

PhillipS

Posted
Posted

It's interesting that the Arctic SIA minimum didn't drop below 4M km2 until 2007 - and now it seems perfectly reasonable to have 4M+ km2 as the highest choice on the poll.  If someone predicted that the 2013 SIA minimum would be above the long-term average of about 4.6M km2 it would seem comical.

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
Posted

I would have gone near or slightly below record lows of 2012.

However lots of thicker ice. Well you know the relatively thick ice vs the FYI.

A very strong pattern moved a large area of MYI nearly 200km in spots in the more historic Beaufort Gyre motion.

I do not expect any large gain because even if ice outside of 80N makes it to the minimum the Atlantic side is gonna be decimated.

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PhillipS

PhillipS

Posted
Posted

Is there any way the mods can change the results to public? That would be great and I don't think anybody would mind.

 

I believe that you do that when you create the poll - there's a control box you check to make the poll public.  Don't know if you can edit and set it after the fact.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

My guesses:

 

SIE 3.80 million sq. km; SIA: 2.70 million sq. km.; SIV: 2.45 thousand cubic km

 

There's probably a greater probability that I'll be too high than too low given my past guesses for SIE. Though January SIV has been running below the 2012 figures, but we'll see how things turn out in coming weeks. It's a shame the PIOMAS data is not updated on a regular and frequent basis.

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Oh well Mallow, I'm glad most people are posting their guesses and some their methodology.

 

One problem with extrapolating the trends is that volume hits zero decades before extent does. The relationship between volume and area/extent must change eventually. But it should be a fine method for predicting just one more year as we are here.

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Mallow

Mallow

Posted
Posted

Oh well Mallow, I'm glad most people are posting their guesses and some their methodology.

 

One problem with extrapolating the trends is that volume hits zero decades before extent does. The relationship between volume and area/extent must change eventually. But it should be a fine method for predicting just one more year as we are here.

 

Sure, the downward linear trend in volume will gradually decrease, or the downward linear trend in area/extent will gradually increase (or some combination of the two). But as the trends change (as new observations come in), predicting one more year should continue to work okay, since the linear part of the trend is the biggest part.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

My estimate has been trending upwards. By June on Neven's blog I guessed on the low side of 3-3.25 for CT area. In his July poll I am guessing on the high side of that range with error bars of 2.6-3.9.

 

Well over half (25 out of 42) are still predicting CT SIA to fall below 2.5 with exactly half (21 out of 42) predicting it below 2.25 (which is essentially at or below record levels) despite June finishing at a level that would require us to go about 1 million sq km above the record loss from July 1st to the minimum to go below last year. They really think devastation is coming in the next few weeks.

 

FTR, in the main ice thread about a week ago, I told friv I was going low 3s as well...he is going about 2.9 (2.8-3.0 range) I think unless he changed it. I'm not registered on the forum, but perhaps I should...there's some decent discussion on there even amongst a lot of the biased posters. But who knows, maybe they will be right and this is the year where the CT SIA relationship completely breaks down.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

There's really not much difference between normal and the lowest on record for this time of year. The real important action starts around august 1st, that's where the divergence takes place.

 

 

For CT SIA, the story seems to be written in June. Extent is more variable.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Almost everyone who actually posted numbers is going to be way low. I'm one of the higher guesses, and I'll still be easily too low with 4.2.

 

 

Yeah this year is going to slaughter just about everyone. I didn't make a guess in this thread, but I would have been too low.

 

Though it is easy to over compensate after a year like last year.

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