Late February/Early March Medium and Long Range Discussion Thread

[SnoSki14]

It's possible our snow threats are over despite the blocking and such. We still need a storm positioned perfectly for us to benefit.

If its over then at least the winter wasn't a total failure like last winter so I'm glad it got better. I guess we'll just have to see what happens going forward.

06z gfs was really meh with everything but it changes every 6 hrs so who knows what's correct and what isn't.

[Zir0b]

what a monster PNA ridge + Greenland block on the GGEm last night.

We'd just need the right shortwave to dive down, models aren't going to pick that out right now

[Weathergun]

If we see a block like the 0z ECMWF and GGEM show, we'll likely have more chances after the March 1st system.

[Heisy]

The one detrimental thing about what I'm seeing for the long range is it seems the STJ might be easing up. My greatest fear is we just have a big ULL swirl around Eastern US with no energy coming out from the west. As the ULL weakens there is no second disturbances to strengthen the block and we just go full on torch. 

[IsentropicLift]

The one detrimental thing about what I'm seeing for the long range is it seems the STJ might be easing up. My greatest fear is we just have a big ULL swirl around Eastern US with no energy coming out from the west. As the ULL weakens there is no second disturbances to strengthen the block and we just go full on torch. 

Right now with the MJO in phase 4 we're getting a train of southern stream storms. Once the MJO moves into the COD as some forecasts are predicting, the pattern will breakdown. It's sort of ironic because one of the things hurting us right now is that the pattern is so active that the ridge out west keeps getting knocked down.

[bluewave]

The one detrimental thing about what I'm seeing for the long range is it seems the STJ might be easing up. My greatest fear is we just have a big ULL swirl around Eastern US with no energy coming out from the west. As the ULL weakens there is no second disturbances to strengthen the block and we just go full on torch. 

 

I think the STJ is fine, but we need the cutoff to be far enough west with a piece of energy rounding the base for the 

low to form closer to the coast. 

 

[IsentropicLift]

For the 26th threat, the 12z GFS is a period of moderate to heavy rain. Heaviest NW of the city. Tracks a broad low pressure right over the area. Anyone from the Poconos north and west get plastered this run with a very heavy wet snow. At hr 129 the precip is quickly coming to an end as the 850 freezing line begins crashing towards the coast. It's not a terrible run for the far NW burbs.

[IsentropicLift]

The storm on the 26th really needs to be watched. The GFS is not far away from giving us a major storm.

[Weathergun]

I think the STJ is fine, but we need the cutoff to be far enough west with a piece of energy rounding the base for the 

low to form closer to the coast. 

 

GFS_3_2013022106_F204_WSPD_300_MB.png

 

We need that strong block over Labrardor Sea to form to keep the cutoff further west. The GFS as of 6z doesn't have it, until after the ULL is gone.

[MJO812]

GFS is further east with the ull next week

[IsentropicLift]

For the early March threat, at hr 165 sub 998 low pressure is north of Lake Erie in Canada with two broad low pressure centers, one down in South Carolina and the other 200 miles SE of the benchmark. By hr 168 it's one very broad area of low pressure off the SE coast.

[Kaner587]

For the early March threat, at hr 165 sub 998 low pressure is north of Lake Erie in Canada with two broad low pressure centers, one down in South Carolina and the other 200 miles SE of the benchmark. By hr 168 it's one very broad area of low pressure off the SE coast.

We're going to need that ULL to set up further west or NW if we're gonna get something around here. Otherwise it's high and dry. Thank god it's 7-8 days out

[IsentropicLift]

By hr 177 the primary is located NW of Lake Ontario and it's transfering its energy towards the coast, well SE of the benchmark.

[IsentropicLift]

Way OTS and weak this run. I'm starting to think the threat centered around the 26th is going to be our best bet.

[IsentropicLift]

Really nice ridge out west, but as its been stated, everything is too far east. By hr 186 it's bombing about 3-400 miles offshore.

[bluewave]

We need that strong block over Labrardor Sea to form to keep the cutoff further west. The GFS as of 6z doesn't have it.

 

I think that the blocking will be fine, but the closed low near the Lakes is still modeled too far east like March 2001.

We need everything to shift west with enough energy rounding the base to have a shot here. It would be a shame

if the best west based block since 2010 and 2011 during the winter went to waste here.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Way OTS and weak this run. I'm starting to think the threat centered around the 26th is going to be our best bet.

I'm not really seeing a threat right now. With the 26th, the low develops too close to our south and moves almost right over us or slightly to our west. I don't see how we'd get significant frozen out of that. And beyond then, it looks like the upper low over the Great Lakes dominates keeping the flow here flatter with any ocean or coastal storm weaker and/or OTS.

WX/PT

[IsentropicLift]

Congrats Nova Scotia this run. At this point we would be better off to just have it get the heck out of the way.

[IsentropicLift]

I'm not really seeing a threat right now. With the 26th, the low develops too close to our south and moves almost right over us or slightly to our west. I don't see how we'd get significant frozen out of that. And beyond then, it looks like the upper low over the Great Lakes dominates keeping the flow here flatter with any ocean or coastal storm weaker and/or OTS.

WX/PT

I'm assuming you're not accounting for slight shifts to the SE which could make for a further offshore track of the 26th low. As it is now, it's borderline for the far NW burbs.

[Kaner587]

Food for thought for all a y'all; IF we get a block similar to what is modeled on most of the guidance, if for nothing else, it's decayal could easily result in a huge storm. -NAO to +NAO phase changes are notorious for producing biggies. So as we watch each additional disturbance get shredded and thrown out to sea as it heads underneath a poorly positioned ULL, just know that in no way does this necessarily mean we escape this period with nothing to show for it.

[bluewave]

We need the UL to shift back toward Chicago with a decent chunk of energy rounding the base.

 

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS maintains the massive PNA ridging through the end of its run which is good news. There will be numerous threats that will come along with potential. Around the March 5-6th time period the GFS has a low down in the gulf that needs to be watched as well.

[IsentropicLift]

We need the UL to shift back toward Chicago with a decent chunk of energy rounding the base.

But this is harder to pull off outside of an El Nino season here.

 

f180.gif

 

022500.png

If anything the ULL has shifted eastward. I guess it's possible that it could track far enough eastward that the low on the 26th has a chance.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I'm assuming you're not accounting for slight shifts to the SE which could make for a further offshore track of the 26th low. As it is now, it's borderline for the far NW burbs.

All these events could be borderline for the nw suburbs, but that doesn't mean they'll get anything significant. When you get to this point, and you can get a period of sleet/wet snow at the start especially in the nw burbs but end up with little if anything on the ground, I do not consider it a threat. If the maps change dramatically, anything is possible, even for the immediate NYC Metro Region, but right RIGHT NOW, I do not see it and I see nothing suggesting it. 

WX/PT

[SnoSki14]

There's so much time to see how things will play out and models will change constantly, I still see models shifting around for this weekends storm so you can bet there will be huge shifts further out.

I would be surprised if we get nothing from the blocking pattern honestly, it seems when huge blocks like that develop, we always benefit somehow, good or bad (Sandy).

[NEG NAO]

The GFS maintains the massive PNA ridging through the end of its run which is good news. There will be numerous threats that will come along with potential. Around the March 5-6th time period the GFS has a low down in the gulf that needs to be watched as well.

Also the AO and the NAO are both forecasted to be in the most negative territory they have been this winter so far next week and then the NAO is forecasted to start moving towards 0 - also the PNA is forecasted to be moving towards neutral - usually when you get this signal there is a good chance of a major east coast storm and the period Feb 28 through the first couple of days of March is the time to watch

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[Zir0b]

12z ggem was close to pulling something off with the Day 7-8 threat

[Edge Weather]

12z Canadian

[Allsnow]

The problem with the 26th is the primary cutting to the Lakes and pushing too much warmth out ahead of the

developing secondary for us.

Euro alot further south this run with the primary.

[Allsnow]

Hr 120 transfer going on in se states. Very strong cad signal. Primary is in southern IL