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February 6-8th Great Lakes Wintry Storm


wisconsinwx

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The GEM looks good for Milwaukee as well.  The 120 hour snowfall for SE Wisconsin into much of Lower Michigan is 15-20mm (equivalent to about 0.6-0.8QPF), which is pretty intriguing to say the least.  The GEM has frequently overdone QPF, so who knows if it sticks, but the UKIE is onboard with the juice as well.

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The GEM looks good for Milwaukee as well.  The 120 hour snowfall for SE Wisconsin into much of Lower Michigan is 15-20mm (equivalent to about 0.6-0.8QPF), which is pretty intriguing to say the least.  The GEM has frequently overdone QPF, so who knows if it sticks, but the UKIE is onboard with the juice as well.

Let's see what the EURO says

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Wunderground is taking it's sweet time tonight.

 

Toronto folks gonna like this.

 

I_nw_g1_EST_2013020500_075.png

 

On Stormvista, it looks pretty good for NE Illinois/SE Wisconsin peeps.  Small area of 0.25"+QPF right over your neighborhood Geos from 18z Thursday-00z Friday, and 850s should be cold enough for snow.  Looks best for Central Lower Michigan, as it is not nearly as wet in SE Michigan as the GEM.

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Throw me a QPF number for KMOP if you don't mind? Wunderground is stuck at hr 66.

 

THU 06Z 07-FEB  -5.8    -6.3    1025      82      96    0.01     550     531   
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -5.8    -4.1    1024      85     100    0.08     550     532   
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -4.4    -5.4    1022      73     100    0.05     550     533   
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -3.8    -6.2    1018      91     100    0.23     547     533   
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.4    -8.4    1017      92      99    0.39     540     527   
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -5.0    -8.7    1022      84      82    0.05     541     524

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THU 06Z 07-FEB  -5.8    -6.3    1025      82      96    0.01     550     531   
THU 12Z 07-FEB  -5.8    -4.1    1024      85     100    0.08     550     532   
THU 18Z 07-FEB  -4.4    -5.4    1022      73     100    0.05     550     533   
FRI 00Z 08-FEB  -3.8    -6.2    1018      91     100    0.23     547     533   
FRI 06Z 08-FEB  -3.4    -8.4    1017      92      99    0.39     540     527   
FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -5.0    -8.7    1022      84      82    0.05     541     524

Holy crap...Thanks

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GFS and especially the GEFS are slowly coming around to the EURO/GGEM/UKIE consensus. Would not be surprised if we see this tick south a bit over time, but it seems now that it's within 72 hours any kind of drastic changes are more unlikely.

 

I agree. It looks like there will be some form of phasing between the northern and southern stream and that will help produce decent precip/snow values over our area.

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EC saying 8.5-10" possible on Thursday. Crazy. For some reason though, I'm really not expecting much. Maybe I've become a cynic.

 

You're not alone. I waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's hard not to considering how things have gone. But the models will have to screw up monumentally for this not to at least deliver a widespread 2-3".

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You're not alone. I waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's hard not to considering how things have gone. But the models will have to screw up monumentally for this not to at least deliver a widespread 2-3".

Most amped up GFS run yet. 4-8" event possible given that for you and me both.  But yeah, model agreement is increasing in terms of healthier precip amounts.

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