ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Latest Wxsim has a mix of snow and sleet arriving just before dawn on Monday AM with almost all of the total precip of 0.24" falling as frozen - with temps topping out at about 33 degrees here in the NW Philly burbs. The one factor to consider is the ground temps due to our 5th consecutive day below freezing will be slow to moderate. The high here today was just 24.6 - the warmest since Monday's 30.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Latest Wxsim has a mix of snow and sleet arriving just before dawn on Monday AM with almost all of the total precip of 0.24" falling as frozen - with temps topping out at about 33 degrees here in the NW Philly burbs. The one factor to consider is the ground temps due to our 5th consecutive day below freezing will be slow to moderate. The high here today was just 24.6 - the warmest since Monday's 30.6. Sunday will make it 7 straight days!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 00z NAM is straight up UGLY for eastern PA Monday morning. Will be interesting to see if other models trend more aggressive with overrunning this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 00z NAM is straight up UGLY for eastern PA Monday morning. Will be interesting to see if other models trend more aggressive with overrunning this far south. Well it gives TTN an inch and a half or so of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 For SE PAMorning - 12z, light snow:Mid morning, 15z, moderate snow:Midday - 18z, freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 How bout the Hershey/Lancaster areas? On mobile and have to drive Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 How bout the Hershey/Lancaster areas? On mobile and have to drive Monday LOOKING ICY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 This is a strange event where areas in the PHL/NYC metro may be frozen and BUF/CLE/PIT are raining because we're in a better position as far as the high pressure and cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 LOOKING ICY Yeah, paying closer attention to this one this evening than I was earlier today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 This is a strange event where areas in the PHL/NYC metro may be frozen and BUF/CLE/PIT are raining because we're in a better position as far as the high pressure and cold air. recall a storm in early 80's when I was at school in selinsgrove pa...we had a heavy rain and my folks back in abington pa had a heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 No surprise, but the GFS isn't as cold as far south. still keeps the Lehigh valley frozen, maybe some of the NW burbs of philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 No surprise, but the GFS isn't as cold as far south. still keeps the Lehigh valley frozen, maybe some of the NW burbs of philly. Yup, slower/a tad less intense with the precip. allowing temps. to rise in its advance. Still some frozen issues, NW burbs on northward through atleast midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Yup, slower/a tad less intense with the precip. allowing temps. to rise in its advance. Still some frozen issues, NW burbs on northward through atleast midday. Not so fast. Latest models show that true arctic air is slow to retreat. A mixed frozen precipitation timing problem extends from Philly south to the Poconos. Latest soundings were colder. I expect some model consensus by noon today, with WWA's of differing magnitudes going up as well, along the usual North/South urban/suburban/elevation differences. Looks like a real trick or treat week with every type of precipitation from snow, sleet, freezing rain, all rain and snow again. It will be a challenging forecast, but, from a meteorology point of view, fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 warm air advection aloft will probably limit snowfall around Philly and result in a change to sleet or light zr but we could "thump" a coating out of things on the front end in Southeast PA away from 95. GFS is more aggressive on the push of warmth ALOFT and does reflect surface subfreezing air hanging tight. I don't really buy the NAM's snowier prop...there will probably be changes to sleet instead of a longer period of snow. I do buy the surface profile on the NAM...but I think aloft warm air (which typically is quicker to push in) limits the snow end of this...may not limit the "in between". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 The 00z NMM and ARW have several hours of wintry precipitation into the Philadelphia area: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4_0z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Will say this -- if the precip on the NAM is right, could be ugly in mike2010 territory on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 SV NAM 10 AM on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 The future radar on Eyewitness news had snow and then ice all the way down to South Jersey. I was confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 The NAM looks like it may almost be mistaking the high sitting over the WRN Atlantic as having a shearing or confluent effect on the precip sheild as it crosses PA, I don't know if I buy that. This is another pain to forecast, we know we'll be cold enough at the surface, its the QPF thats a big question mark and it could be more than the models want to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 12z NAM paints an ugly picture for the morning commute in eastern Pa. Check out the sim. at 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 12z NAM paints an ugly picture for the morning commute in eastern Pa. Check out the sim. at 12z Monday. Agreed. 12z NAM soundings look pretty nasty. Most folks north of PHL are 32F at the surface until mid/late afternoon tomorrow. I'm thinking a burst of snow, maybe up to 1", then over to sleet and 0.1-0.15" of ZR potentially through 1pm. Advisories should be issued today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Mount Holly thinks that Advisories are likely for this system: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE FOR OUR CWA WITH A LIKELYADVISORY LEVEL IMPACT EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY AMULTI FACETED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THENA SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 SREF also has snow on leading edge of precip down into N De+SJ but amounts are lighter than NAM only a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GFS holds serve in scouring out mid levels of cold prior to precip arrival in city. Would be a brief light zr or fr drizzle to rain/drizzle setup for most of us. Poconos/LV would have some issues but nothing on the order of what the NAM is barking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GFS holds serve in scouring out mid levels of cold prior to precip arrival in city. Would be a brief light zr or fr drizzle to rain/drizzle setup for most of us. Poconos/LV would have some issues but nothing on the order of what the NAM is barking at. GFS is warmer than last nights Euro/UK/GEM and this mornings NAM/SREF/RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I would really be disappointed if this ends up being mostly rain after how cold it has been...I really think the cold that we have had will make any rain freeze on surfaces for at least a while tomorrow...still expecting a decent icing up near Reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Temps are rising pretty quick today...already around 30 in Reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GFS is warmer than last nights Euro/UK/GEM and this mornings NAM/SREF/RGEM I tend to think the NAM does well in CAD situations (like this) at the surface...a GFS/EC aloft, NAM surface blend probably works well. Precip will be the wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I tend to think the NAM does well in CAD situations (like this) at the surface...a GFS/EC aloft, NAM surface blend probably works well. Precip will be the wildcard. Precip is the key. NAM probably overdoing initial shot of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Temps are rising pretty quick today...already around 30 in Reading 30 here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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