tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 hr 126 has the 850 line from lns-ptw-ukt, frz line on i80...temps in the 30s from 95 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Any front end frozen precip into the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 i didnt think that bias would come into play, as the shortwave doesn't come out of the SW US? the "SW bias" is more of a "slow, strong bias" -- Euro can be slower than the GFS in a fast-moving pattern and overamplifies storm systems. Remember the clipper for tomorrow was modeled 5-6 days out by the Euro to be a sub 1004 mb low coming through Upstate New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Any front end frozen precip into the city? maybe a flurry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 the euro looks like a thump then slot to me. The precip is only .25-.5... still looks like 2-4 for lehigh valley, 1-3 nw burbs...phl area prob gets some frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 maybe a flurry.. lol your gonna kill the guy, its prob like an inch for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 the "SW bias" is more of a "slow, strong bias" -- Euro can be slower than the GFS in a fast-moving pattern and overamplifies storm systems. Remember the clipper for tomorrow was modeled 5-6 days out by the Euro to be a sub 1004 mb low coming through Upstate New York. gotya. either way, some pretty ugly runs since the 0z suites.... the lack of a stronger block to keep the PV south hurts here. im leaning 60-40 towards a minimal impact event for extreme se pa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 hr 132 the precip is over for everyone, looks to me like a thump then slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 the "SW bias" is more of a "slow, strong bias" -- Euro can be slower than the GFS in a fast-moving pattern and overamplifies storm systems. Remember the clipper for tomorrow was modeled 5-6 days out by the Euro to be a sub 1004 mb low coming through Upstate New York. it may have the right idea, but its a lot slower than the gfs and its 0z run. That may be a little alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 the window is closing.. not ready to give up yet, as i think there could be CAD sigs showing up as we get closer to the event. Still think the interior makes out nice, just losing hope for IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Interesting that usually too progressive NOGAPS is even More NW than the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 the euro looks like a thump then slot to me. The precip is only .25-.5... still looks like 2-4 for lehigh valley, 1-3 nw burbs...phl area prob gets some frozen Welcome to my nightmare. Well in reality and trying to be objective about it all both the NAO and PNA are verifying "more positive" which makes the Pacific contribution with this event more amplified. We all know that index numbers can be misleading (how can it get this cold with a positive NAO) so it looks like its going to come down to how helpful is that midweek short wave going to be and how long will the PV linger. Over the last four GFS runs it has trended slightly farther to the west with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 According to Wundermap Euro is mostly snow near phl 2-4". By the time 850s warm above zero most of precip is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 According to Wundermap Euro is mostly snow near phl 2-4". By the time 850s warm above zero most of precip is over. i wouldn't trust those maps at all. Its been proven a good amount of times how bad they are. It does have that look to it. I wish i could see those in between hours. The mid levels are going to warm up faster than what the model shows, we all know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 HA...well I always point out that 1/3/99 event to people when they bring that one up, I think the 850s were -25C at 6am with lows in the single digits and it was 34 and raining by midnight...this storm won't be quite as amplified as that was but it seems that can remarkably happen. Yeah sadly, if the storm comes in with nothing to lock in the cold, it'll be bye bye... I have vague memories of a number of such events but thanks for crystalizing that one, I remember driving home on icy roads late that night and awakening to a driving, mild downpour the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 HA...well I always point out that 1/3/99 event to people when they bring that one up, I think the 850s were -25C at 6am with lows in the single digits and it was 34 and raining by midnight...this storm won't be quite as amplified as that was but it seems that can remarkably happen. Yup it did go from 12 the morning of the 2nd to 56 on the 3rd, temps just kept on rising. Pretty much what Ray posted, if the confluence flow doesnt remain in southwest Quebec and the ageo flow is not northeast, its done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 And I don't seem to recollect any damming highs to the N?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We appear to be losing this threat moreso with each subsequent run. Now that I've posted, I expect the positive trends to begin. I don't care how cold it is, a low (and 850 low) to our N and W is a killer, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 We appear to be losing this threat moreso with each subsequent run. Now that I've posted, I expect the positive trends to begin. I don't care how cold it is, a low (and 850 low) to our N and W is a killer, period. you can still get a thump of snow, but eventually its going to switch over or warm up with the southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Tombo have u had a chance to look at the Euro Ens? Heard they shifted south but not sure by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Tombo have u had a chance to look at the Euro Ens? Heard they shifted south but not sure by how much. they go from wheeling to just south of mantuak (sp). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 gfs is going to be a better run for wintry precip. Pv is holding on longer, the northern stream energy isn't as amplifide, which doesn't raise the heights as much in front of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 very very nice run.... would have liked to see a more south solution, but beggers can't be chosers. both 0 lines straddle just south of the mason dixon line.. too close for comfort on a model with a SE BIAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Blehh. Still needs to be about 100 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 I dont think the low matches up well with the 500mb track...cold bias? Should probably be farther north, just my personal opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco with 18z data has snow arriving just after midnight on Friday AM with it all over by 10am...total snow 5" to 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I dont think the low matches up well with the 500mb track...cold bias? Should probably be farther north, just my personal opinion Nah I think it's fine. Between the low level cold and upper jet positioning, you'll see the vorticity get reconfigured as the long wave amplifies. I can argue for either solution (north track vs. south) at this point but I'm leaning colder / south at the moment (semi-progressive flow under strong PV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 The 18z GEFS have shifted S and on average are near the OP run. Again there is a NW group, a group like the OP run and a few suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 this will be an interesting run of the gfs. The pv is holding stronger but the storm is slower like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 this will be an interesting run of the gfs. The pv is holding stronger but the storm is slower like the euro. Hust about to say that... We'll see how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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