hoosierwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LMK adds northern tier of counties into the Blizzard Warning. Hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yes same, after the previous winters i've learned to wait till observations time to really put faith in the models. It is already down to 997mb is it not right? Havent been paying attention recently, haha. It's AOB 1000mb, but not that deep over N-C LA. 18z NAM never closed off a 1000mb contour on its initialization plot so it's actually running a tick deeper than progged by that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 And ultimately up north its evident in the timing of the phase... 18z is a good 5-6 hours quicker with it and it pays off for those riding the northern fringes like myself Another thing is the storm on the west coast. I noticed it was a little slower on the NAM than the 12z run. Gives our system more breathing room to slow and gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's AOB 1000mb, but not that deep over N-C LA. 18z NAM never closed off a 1000mb contour on its initialization plot so it's actually running a tick deeper than progged by that model. Yess, perhaps it initialized a bit earlier so i'd watch the observation plots carefully tonight and then compare it to when the 0z Nam comes out as the 0z and 12z Runs usually have more efficient upper air data than the 6z and 18z. BTW the 18z nam showed 25-35cm LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For those in Southern Ontario, Winter storm watch issued for Regional Municipality of Niagara and Haldimand County http://www.sowx.ca/warnings.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Dont sweat it canuck, just dont look at the worst and hope for the best lol so far it initialized according to current observations and its less than 24 hours out so dont worry. Good way to think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 FWIW the RAP is extremely simmilar to the NAM at the end of it's run at 13z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 For those in Southern Ontario, Winter storm watch issued for Regional Municipality of Niagara and Haldimand County http://www.sowx.ca/warnings.html Yeah, they mentioned they might add Niagara to a watch in the SPS they issued earlier. If I had to have guessed a second zone they'd include, it would have been Hamilton rather than Haldimand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Rap is the old ruc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 looks like us toledoans may fair pretty well...the caveat is lake erie ALWAYS splits these puppies in half and somehow, no matter where the low tracks we get donut holed. i wish all of you in a snow drought the best of luck with this system...31 plow trucks and not one plowed a flake last year, so i'm hoping we do well with this. good luck and merry Christmas guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That's a definite NW shift here... 6" reaches the SEMI border Definitely more than 6" in extreme SE MI. Models at 12z actually all zoned in on a consensus for DTW, as EURO, GFS, and NAM all had 0.40-0.45" qpf for DTW...so I started to feel good about a complete miss being EXTREMELY unlikely. Now....the 18z NAM says to hell with consensus and now has 0.75"+ qpf just SE of DTW into Monroe county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Rap is the old ruc? Yes. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah, they mentioned they might add Niagara to a watch in the SPS they issued earlier. If I had to have guessed a second zone they'd include, it would have been Hamilton rather than Haldimand. Oh well, its EC. Can't expect too much from them. At least I know the map is working good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Rap is the old ruc? Er...the new RUC. It's the new short-term 18hr model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm really starting to wonder if these new trends are going to become a reality. 18z GFS should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Oh well, its EC. Can't expect too much from them. At least I know the map is working good though. May I suggest a brighter colour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm really starting to wonder if these new trends are going to become a reality. 18z GFS should be interesting! First stop: RGEM. It's been particularly dry. Any juicification there would be a huge step in the right direction, even if it's not the 1.00"+ the NAM's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Clearly overblown on the NAM, but could be some serious flake rippage tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 First stop: RGEM. It's been particularly dry. Any juicification there would be a huge step in the right direction, even if it's not the 1.00"+ the NAM's showing. Any word on the 18z RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Also, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 May I suggest a brighter colour? Used the nws colours. What colour would you suggest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DTX: A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE OHIO BORDER BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXPAND IT OVER ALL OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE PEAK IN THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT WITH MEANINGFUL SNOW LASTING LONGER AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN THUMB DUE TO MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE OVERALL SNOWFALL SCENARIO DEPICTED IN AFTERNOON MODEL DATA TO SUPPORT ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR ALL COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SAGINAW VALLEY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A 3 TO 5 INCH ACCUMULATION IS THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT DURING THE ROUGHLY 9 HOUR PEAK OF THE EVENT WITH AN INCH OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE FOR A 12 TO 15 HOUR TOTAL IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE EARLY HEADLINE ISSUANCE IS ALSO INTENDED TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS FOR THOSE PLANNING POST HOLIDAY TRAVEL. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR COMPOSITES INDICATE THE SYSTEM WELL ON ITS WAY TO MODEL ADVERTISED STRENGTH ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. PRESSURE TENDENCY IN SURFACE ANALYSIS POINTS TO THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE, ALSO AS ADVERTISED. ABOUT THE ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE SYSTEM CONCERN A FASTER PACE OF DEVELOPMENT TRANSFERRING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. THESE ARE CRITICAL ASPECTS OF THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION FOR US, HOWEVER, AS THE TREND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS SNOWFALL IN SE MICHIGAN. THAT BEING SAID, WE STILL HAVE A NOTABLE EVENT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH HIGH END ADVISORY ACCUMULATION SUPPORTED BY PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND TROWAL FORCING AS IT MATURES NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. MODEL SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER IS SHOWN TO REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT IN THE 1-3 G/KG RANGE DURING THE EVENT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT IS THE CHARACTER OF THE TROWAL SOLUTION CHANGING FROM MORE OF DIRECT IMPACT IN OUR AREA TO A GLANCING BLOW BEFORE THE MATURE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE SHRINKS RAPIDLY TO THE EAST. THE PACE OF SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z THURSDAY IS A GOOD TRACER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING TREND IN FORCING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE CONSIDERATIONS, ALONG WITH A GENEROUS AVERAGE SNOW RATIO AROUND 12:1 AND SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 30F, GIVE US THE SNOW ACCUMULATION ARRIVED AT WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXTRA ACCUMULATION WAS ADDED TO THE NORTHERN THUMB WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER LAKE HURON. LAKE TO 850 DELTA-T WILL BE AROUND 13C USING 850 TEMP OF -7C AND WATER TEMP OF 6C. THE TARGET RANGE FOR ENHANCEMENT IS DELTA-T IN THE 8-13C RANGE WHEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT EXCEEDS -2 UB/S. THIS WILL HELP THE NORTHERN THUMB INTO A HIGH END ADVISORY AS WELL EVEN AS SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWFALL WEAKENS DURING THE NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Used the nws colours. What colour would you suggest? The colour is ok I guess. Maybe just saturate it a bit more. It's only faintly distinct from the non-shaded areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Any word on the 18z RGEM? 15 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The colour is ok I guess. Maybe just saturate it a bit more. It's only faintly distinct from the non-shaded areas. Ok will look into it tonight, if you have a preferred colour let me know. I want to make it the best possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 So DTX going with WWA..Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 So DTX going with WWA..Nice... Correct decision by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What would cause this hole of less snow?? I'm located at the tip of the arrow. Is it because of the growth of the second Low on the coast stealing the moisture?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 What would cause this hole of less snow?? I'm located at the tip of the arrow. Is it because of the growth of the second Low on the coast stealing the moisture?? I don't there's any rationale behind why you're in that screw hole. The models just do stuff like that sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.