Chinook Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I got just enough snow to cover the grass, maybe 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Interesting observation on my own. When the blizzard warning was issued for my area, anyone with a capable cell phone had the Wireless Emergency Alert screaming about 4am. Since the Omaha region just got put under the warning around 11:30am, I can only imagine how many cell phones started screaming in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Is it just me, or does this thing seem to be tracking somewhat significantly more NW than projected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Since it is related to the storm... Pretty severe dust storm ongoing in the TX panhandle right now spreading eastward. The latest METAR from Lubbock shows winds of 47MPH gusting to 66MPH, visibilities of a quarter mile and heavy blowing dust. KLBB 191907Z 25041G57KT 1/4SM -RA +DS VV008 18/M03 A2956 RMK AO2 PK WND 25057/1901 TWR VIS 1/4 RAB03 P0000 RVRNO The dust is clearly visible on radar, with correlation coefficient values of 0.3-0.4 (extremely low) associated with the echoes, a clear indication that the targets are not hydrometeors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 ^^^ TX DOT CAM from I-27 near Lubbock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roon Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Going off of nothing more than the current radar picture, I have a hard time believing that this thing simply clips SE MN now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Another Update from 19/20Z to 20/20Z (All cities uploaded @ http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm) Omaha Region: Tracking Snowfall beginning around 21Z through 20/14Z. Heaviest period of snow will be from 01Z to 10Z, with snowfall rates approaching 1.9” per hour. In addition, winds will increase to gusts up to 35 to 44MPH from 02Z to 120Z, causing blizzard like conditions. Snowfall potential of 16.7” possible for this region based on model data, this maybe to excessive for the area. (Thoughts????) Dubuque Region: Snow beginning around 01Z, increasing in intensity around 05Z through 20/17Z. Snowfall rates of up to 1.5” possible through this time frame. Blizzard conditions will exist from 14Z through 20Z, with winds gusting up to 34 to 46MPH in this time frame. Snowfall potential of 13.4” possible in this area. Cedar Rapids Region: Snow will begin around 22Z and increase around 03Z through 17Z. Heaviest snowfall will occur from 04Z to 14Z, with snowfall rates of up to 2.1” possible during this timeframe. Blizzard like conditions will exist from 06Z to 16Z, with winds gusting up to 42 to 54MPH, especially towards the 15Z to 20Z time frame. Snowfall potential of 14.3” possible. Lincoln Region: Tracking snow from 22Z to 14Z, with 01Z to 08Z as the period of heaviest snow. Snowfall rates of 1.8” possible during this time. In addition, blizzard conditions will develop from 02Z to 13Z, with winds gusting from 35 to 44MPH through the time frame. Snowfall potential of 15.8” possible. Other significant areas of snowfall potential are listed below: McCook 7.4” Imperial 6.1” North Platte 6.1” Grand Island 10.5” Fort Dodge 6.9” Mason City 8.1” Manhattan 4.2” Severe Non-Convective Wind Potential Dodge City 60-65MPH Garden City 55-60MPH Hays 55-60 MPH Cedar Rapids 55-60MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 While we're talking about the dust storm (can be removed if it is too far off topic), the leading edge of it was approaching Norman at sunset... my very first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 SmartCast Update for 20 Dec/01Z to 21 Dec/01Z http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Dubuque Region: Look for snow to rapidly increase around 05Z, with the heaviest snow from 06Z to 11Z. Snowfall rates of 1.9” per hour will be possible during this timeframe. In addition winds will increase to 35 to 40MPH after 13Z, then 45 to 52MPH from 13Z to 01Z. This will create blizzard conditions through this region. Snowfall accumulations of 13” are possible in the area. Omaha Region: Tracking continued heavy snow from now through 09Z, with snowfall rates up to 1.6” per hour possible. In addition, winds will begin to increase significantly after 03Z, with gusts 35 to 42MPH through the period, creating blizzard conditions through the period. Looking at snow accumulations of 11.6” possible. Lincoln Region: Continued Moderate to Heavy snow from now til 08Z, with snowfall rates up to 1.6” possible. Winds will be gusting 35 to 45MPH from 03Z to 17Z, which will create blizzard and blowing snow through the period. Look for snow to end around 15Z. Looking at snow accumulations of 10.6” possible. Cedar Rapids Region: Looking at snow continuing from 01Z to 08Z, then mixing with sleet 09Z to 12Z, then changing back to all snow. Snow per hour rates could reach 1.7” during this timeframe. In addition, winds will increase to 45 to 55MPH from 15Z to 01Z, creating blizzard like conditions and wind chills below zero. Snow accumulations of 10.5” possible. Other cities with significant snowfall: Grand Island 6.3”, wind gusts up to 45 to 50MPH possible St. Joseph 3.9”, wind gusts up to 45 to 50MPH possible. Mason City 4.6”, wind gusts up to 48MPH possible Kansas City 2.6”, wind gusts up to 45MPH possible. Damaging winds possible for Garden City, Dodge City, Salina with wind gusts 55 to 65MPH possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX/WESTERN AR/FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 200107Z - 200200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WITHIN THE HOUR /LIKELY BY 02Z/. DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF A 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NORTH-CENTRAL OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OR SLOW-MOVING MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO...IN ADDITION TO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND A PRECEDING DRY LINE ACROSS OK/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THE ARRIVAL OF CONSEQUENTIAL DPVA/MASS RESPONSE ASSOCIATED WITH A PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A RECENT CONVECTIVE INCREASE HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED IN LATIMER COUNTY OK PER RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 0115Z...AND MORE ROBUSTLY IN VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE RED RIVER OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OK/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THE 00Z FORT WORTH OBSERVED SOUNDING WAS INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY LITTLE CINH...WITH A RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES PROFILE AND MLCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OTHERWISE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL CINH EROSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASINGLY PREVALENT. WITH A PROBABLE INCREASE /QUICK AT THAT/ IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID-EVENING...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND RESULTANT 70+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A MIXED-MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE EVOLUTION OF SMALL/FAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS TONIGHT...WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT BY VARIOUS HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE. WHILE SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD BE THE MORE PREVALENT RISKS. ..GUYER/WEISS.. 12/20/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Watch out now. 40% chance of 2 more tornadoes, and 40% chance of 10 or more wind events. Visibility down to 2 mi here with BLDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ah, December on the Plains. No winter storm watch to go along with the Tornado watch this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishnut Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX/WESTERN AR/FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 200107Z - 200200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WITHIN THE HOUR /LIKELY BY 02Z/. DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS INDICATIVE OF A 996 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF NORTH-CENTRAL OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OR SLOW-MOVING MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO...IN ADDITION TO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND A PRECEDING DRY LINE ACROSS OK/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THE ARRIVAL OF CONSEQUENTIAL DPVA/MASS RESPONSE ASSOCIATED WITH A PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH A RECENT CONVECTIVE INCREASE HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED IN LATIMER COUNTY OK PER RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 0115Z...AND MORE ROBUSTLY IN VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE RED RIVER OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OK/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THE 00Z FORT WORTH OBSERVED SOUNDING WAS INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY LITTLE CINH...WITH A RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES PROFILE AND MLCAPE AROUND 300 J/KG. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OTHERWISE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL CINH EROSION CONTINUES TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASINGLY PREVALENT. WITH A PROBABLE INCREASE /QUICK AT THAT/ IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID-EVENING...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND RESULTANT 70+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A MIXED-MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE EVOLUTION OF SMALL/FAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS TONIGHT...WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT BY VARIOUS HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE. WHILE SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES SHOULD BE THE MORE PREVALENT RISKS. ..GUYER/WEISS.. 12/20/2012 Pea size hail in Topeka, Kansas right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Tor warning now for Barry Co. in sw MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 My lastest forecast Output through 21 Dec at 04Z Dubuque Region: Heavy snow to begin around 05Z through 14Z Snowfall rates of 1.9” per hour will be possible during this timeframe. In addition winds will increase to 35 to 40MPH after 13Z, then 45 to 52MPH from 13Z to 04Z. This will create blizzard conditions through this region. Snowfall accumulations of 13-16” are possible in the area. Green Bay, WI Region: Looking at snow to increase around 11Z through 02Z. Snow rates up to 1.3” per hour are possible. Winds will increase sharply around 21Z, with gusts 35 to 42MPH, creating blizzard conditions for the area after 21Z. Looking at snow accumulations of 15” around this region. Waterloo Region: Heavy snow is knocking on your door, look for heavy snow from 05Z to 14Z, with average snowfall rates of 1.1” per hour, peaking up to 1.6” per hour. Winds will increase above 35MPH after 10Z, then gust 45 to 50MPH after 16Z. Blizzard conditions likely after 09Z continuing through 21/04Z. Snowfall accumulations of 14” possible in this region. Volk Field, WI Region: Heavy snow will begin around 10Z through 18Z, with snowfall rates up to 1.4” possible. Winds will increase above 35MPH after 19Z, and 38 to 42MPH after 23Z. Blizzard conditions expected after 19Z. Snowfall accumulations of 12” possible in this region. Omaha Region: Tracking continued heavy snow from now through 09Z, with snowfall rates up to 1.6” per hour possible. In addition, winds will begin to increase significantly after 03Z, with gusts 35 to 42MPH through the period, creating blizzard conditions through the period. Looking at additional accumulation of 7”. Lincoln Region: Continued Moderate to Heavy snow from now til 08Z, with snowfall rates up to 1.6” possible. Winds will be gusting 35 to 45MPH from 03Z to 17Z, which will create blizzard and blowing snow through the period. Look for snow to end around 15Z. Looking at additional accumulations of 6” possible. Cedar Rapids Region: Looking at snow continuing from 01Z to 08Z, then mixing with sleet 09Z to 12Z, then changing back to all snow. Snow per hour rates could reach 1.7” during this timeframe. In addition, winds will increase to 45 to 55MPH from 15Z to 01Z, creating blizzard like conditions and wind chills below zero. Snow accumulations of 10.5” possible. Other cities with significant snowfall: Grand Island 6.3”, wind gusts up to 45 to 50MPH possible St. Joseph 3.9”, wind gusts up to 45 to 50MPH possible. La Crosse, WI: 9.6” Mosinee, WI: 8.3” Mason City 4.6”, wind gusts up to 48MPH possible Kansas City 3.6”, wind gusts up to 45MPH possible. Rochester 4.6” Damaging winds possible for Garden City, Dodge City, Salina with wind gusts 50 to 58MPH possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CO SciFan Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Here in Fort Collins, CO we ended up with at least a few inches on our yard, here's a shot from last night after all the snowing had ceased: Casa de Christmas by Fort Photo, on Flickr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Here in Fort Collins, CO we ended up with at least a few inches on our yard, here's a shot from last night after all the snowing had ceased: Casa de Christmas by Fort Photo, on Flickr Nice pic!......I ended up with about 5.5 of powder, better than the cement they got down south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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