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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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Two of the major players in the potential event will be the blocking in the Atlantic as well as the positioning of the ridge out west. The 12z GFS, despite a different handling of the ULL near Newfoundland, shows the blocking in the higher latitudes very well. Pretty impressive, even for October, all potential phasing systems aside.

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Hard to imagine a worse case scenario for New York Harbor than an apparant major hurricane moving NW and slamming into the Jersey shore. We're talking about a significant length of time of onshore winds in the right front quadrant and a potential for a major storm surge unlike anything any of us have ever seen before.

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Hard to imagine a worse case scenario for New York Harbor than an apparant major hurricane moving NW and slamming into the Jersey shore. We're talking about a significant length of time of onshore winds in the right front quadrant and a potential for a major storm surge unlike anything any of us have ever seen before.

I don't think it would technically be a tropical hurricane but maybe a hybrid monster low with some tropical characteristics. Even so the impacts would be severe nonetheless.

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Euro is a lot flatter wtih the mid level trof over the Central US -- but appears to be trying to phase it, still...similarly to the GGEM. We'll see. It's definitely farther west than the GFS with the tropical system, that's for sure.

Yeah the westward movement appears to counter the flatter nature of the CONUS trough,.

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Euro coming back to reality and takes a step toward the GFS solution

The main difference is that it almost drifted the system into FL early in the run.

It looks like it's trying to undercut the system with the northern stream energy, still, at 192 hours. So the system could still get thrust west/northwest.

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Euro coming back to reality and takes a step toward the GFS solution

Euro coming back to reality? It's 7 days out...who is to say the GFS Is realistic? Lots of players on the field and will take several more days for the models to sort out the upper air pattern...

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The main difference is that it almost drifted the system into FL early in the run.

It looks like it's trying to undercut the system with the northern stream energy, still, at 192 hours. So the system could still get thrust west/northwest.

The Euro and GGEM insist this heads west toward FL after crossing cuba, GFS has no part of that....will be interesting what actually happens heading west toward FL would help the capture idea.

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Phase at 204, surface low with a major tug north and west...surface low looks to be in the 950's and moving northwest towards the 40/70 ( :lol:)

I feel like that's what kinda happened in 10/31/91.. (again i must emphasize the word "feel" ) I don't remember the specifics..The storm retrograded from the Atlantic and while we didn't get much rain- the flooding was crazy in the Long Island area....

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Euro coming back to reality? It's 7 days out...who is to say the GFS Is realistic? Lots of players on the field and will take several more days for the models to sort out the upper air pattern...

The extremely unlikely scenario would be the less realistic one, because it's just that, extremely unlikely.

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The extremely unlikely scenario would be the less realistic one, because it's just that, extremely unlikely.

So what's the most likely scenario, the trough and the tropical system remain separate entities, no phase, tropical system goes out to sea harmlessly while trough moves in? I assume that's what climatology would dictate.

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