forkyfork Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 might as well start the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Gfs likes to flatten out trough energy. We all know this from winter. On the other hand, the cmc and euro both have a reputation of going crazy with storms and phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Two of the major players in the potential event will be the blocking in the Atlantic as well as the positioning of the ridge out west. The 12z GFS, despite a different handling of the ULL near Newfoundland, shows the blocking in the higher latitudes very well. Pretty impressive, even for October, all potential phasing systems aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Here are the 10m winds from todays 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 939?!?!!?!?!? Holy hell! Where's the 0c line?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hard to imagine a worse case scenario for New York Harbor than an apparant major hurricane moving NW and slamming into the Jersey shore. We're talking about a significant length of time of onshore winds in the right front quadrant and a potential for a major storm surge unlike anything any of us have ever seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Looks like euro is coming in slightly west so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro is a lot flatter wtih the mid level trof over the Central US -- but appears to be trying to phase it, still...similarly to the GGEM. We'll see. It's definitely farther west than the GFS with the tropical system, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hard to imagine a worse case scenario for New York Harbor than an apparant major hurricane moving NW and slamming into the Jersey shore. We're talking about a significant length of time of onshore winds in the right front quadrant and a potential for a major storm surge unlike anything any of us have ever seen before. I don't think it would technically be a tropical hurricane but maybe a hybrid monster low with some tropical characteristics. Even so the impacts would be severe nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro is a lot flatter wtih the mid level trof over the Central US -- but appears to be trying to phase it, still...similarly to the GGEM. We'll see. It's definitely farther west than the GFS with the tropical system, that's for sure. Yeah the westward movement appears to counter the flatter nature of the CONUS trough,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro looks like its west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 At 120hr, Euro is already down to 971mb just north of NW Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Big changes with the ridge out west -- this run is a whole lot flatter with that feature and also less energetic with the Central US trough...but still looks like it wants to phase and tug the storm close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah the westward movement appears to counter the flatter nature of the CONUS trough,. Not too dissimilar to the ensembles which also suggested the OP was a little too extreme with the mega ridge on the West Coast into British Columbia last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Ultimately the de-amplified pattern over the West/Central US forces the phase to occur farther east with things remaining more progressive..the phase is just occurring at 180 hours with the center of the low pressure well off the coast...we'll see if it gets pulled west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro coming back to reality and takes a step toward the GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro coming back to reality and takes a step toward the GFS solution lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro coming back to reality and takes a step toward the GFS solution The main difference is that it almost drifted the system into FL early in the run. It looks like it's trying to undercut the system with the northern stream energy, still, at 192 hours. So the system could still get thrust west/northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro coming back to reality and takes a step toward the GFS solution Euro coming back to reality? It's 7 days out...who is to say the GFS Is realistic? Lots of players on the field and will take several more days for the models to sort out the upper air pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Phase at 204, surface low with a major tug north and west...surface low looks to be in the 950's and moving northwest towards the 40/70 () Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The main difference is that it almost drifted the system into FL early in the run. It looks like it's trying to undercut the system with the northern stream energy, still, at 192 hours. So the system could still get thrust west/northwest. The Euro and GGEM insist this heads west toward FL after crossing cuba, GFS has no part of that....will be interesting what actually happens heading west toward FL would help the capture idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Phase at 204, surface low with a major tug north and west...surface low looks to be in the 950's and moving northwest towards the 40/70 ( ) I feel like that's what kinda happened in 10/31/91.. (again i must emphasize the word "feel" ) I don't remember the specifics..The storm retrograded from the Atlantic and while we didn't get much rain- the flooding was crazy in the Long Island area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 There is a closed 933mb contour on the zoomed in Euro graphics off the coast of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Phase at 204, surface low with a major tug north and west...surface low looks to be in the 950's and moving northwest towards the 40/70 ( ) Solution looks similar to the 12z NOAGPS FWIW. A glancing blow for NJ but NYC on NE gets hit hard, at least in terms of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Euro coming back to reality? It's 7 days out...who is to say the GFS Is realistic? Lots of players on the field and will take several more days for the models to sort out the upper air pattern... The extremely unlikely scenario would be the less realistic one, because it's just that, extremely unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The extremely unlikely scenario would be the less realistic one, because it's just that, extremely unlikely. So what's the most likely scenario, the trough and the tropical system remain separate entities, no phase, tropical system goes out to sea harmlessly while trough moves in? I assume that's what climatology would dictate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The trough wraps and phases with "Sandy" around the Newfoundland ridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The GGEM is days faster than the EURO (due to the earlier phase?) Not that it really matters much since it will change another 12 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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