phlwx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I think that timing is to slow. Agree completely. High res NAM is saying 6-8 PM for the city...a lot more reasonable timing wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 ...and BTW, this was pretty well modeled for a couple of days...going from 5 to 45% in 36 hrs is kinda lolworthy. This *probably* should have been slight risked yesterday in a day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 ...and BTW, this was pretty well modeled for a couple of days...going from 5 to 45% in 36 hrs is kinda lolworthy. This *probably* should have been slight risked yesterday in a day 3. Maybe. Although Keep in mind instability is still limited on the GFS and EC. With the dynamics in place 500 J/KG mixed layer CAPE may be enough, though one would prefer 1000 or better for severe weather. With a March event in the OH valley the NAM was considerably more unstable and ended up being the correct solution. Dinnertime seams reasonable in Philly for storm timing with the best spot to see the storms in action should be from NE PA into southern NY. Widespread wind damage is the bigtime concern as the LLJ really cranks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Area a little more narrow Day2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_wind.gif 10% TOR for NE PA and SE NY. Not common we see that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Don't know what this means for later today, but there's cells firing down in the Delmarva, moving NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Don't know what this means for later today, but there's cells firing down in the Delmarva, moving NNE. NAM's got them. They should be out of here by Noon. NAM really honks the worst of this per hi res towards Scranton and Mount Pocono...our end of the squall line isn't as sharply defined and robust as it is farther north (note how sharp the reds/oranges are on the edge of the line as it hits the Water Gap)...the LLJ is stronger to our north as the low stays pretty far to our north. This isn't to say we won't get it bad here but I think the damage reports locally may be a bit more isolated compared to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 radar (hotlinked in and should update through the day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I have a830 tee time @ jack frost national tomorrow morning ( 1st of a4 day golf trip suckers!) . But I'm really debating whether or not I should head up this afternoon or tomorrow morning,..decision decision dicision...I'll worry about it later. I'm really thinking anything isolated that can pop today could produce some rotation, especially up that way...however, storm speed could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 There appears to be some breaks in the "overcast" this morning over central PA, however it still looks (on the visible image) that there is >50% cloudcover to contend with. Are those breaks going to be enough to allow for the instability necessary to fire off severe later this afternoon? At the moment, my location is locked in with wall to wall overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 watch likely soon for eastern pa... possible tornado watch. MD graphic just NW of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 There appears to be some breaks in the "overcast" this morning over central PA, however it still looks (on the visible image) that there is >50% cloudcover to contend with. Are those breaks going to be enough to allow for the instability necessary to fire off severe later this afternoon? At the moment, my location is locked in with wall to wall overcast skies. it should clear out. Im not sure how thick the clouds are but it could be a lot of low clouds which should burn off once the sun gets higher in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 There appears to be some breaks in the "overcast" this morning over central PA, however it still looks (on the visible image) that there is >50% cloudcover to contend with. Are those breaks going to be enough to allow for the instability necessary to fire off severe later this afternoon? At the moment, my location is locked in with wall to wall overcast skies. Addressed in the most recent Disco BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER NRN PORTION OF MODERATE RISK AREA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH. WHEN COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIAL-TYPE DERECHO EVENT...CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not the "D" word! Wait until media outlets get a hold of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 it should clear out. Im not sure how thick the clouds are but it could be a lot of low clouds which should burn off once the sun gets higher in the sky. Thanks Tom. I was wondering about the cloud thickness as well. Not the "D" word! Wait until media outlets get a hold of that. Oh boy... Hopefully they miss that part of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Clouds thinning - starting to get a little sun through breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Getting a little rain here now. 75/72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 hope i can get the grass cut early this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 hope i can get the grass cut early this afternoon I'm heading out to do that right now...I want to stay ahead of the Super Derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Rained heavily here for a short time.. Sun is peaking out now and if all possible the humidity is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Anyone have a good guess at the timeframe for the Lehigh Valley area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Anyone have a good guess at the timeframe for the Lehigh Valley area? I'll wager: 3-6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Poss tornado touchdown in queens not too long ago per fdny/ NYC sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I am completely underwhelmed by the line over western/central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sun popping out here intermittently now, but still generally overcast. As for that line, it's narrow for sure, and has a lot of lighter rain ahead of it. Watching radar animations, though, it "appears" to be moving eastward faster than the overall rain shield. What significance that has though, I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I am completely underwhelmed by the line over western/central PA. Hrrr still on board Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Based on the latest SPC MD, it appears a tornado watch will fly up north, while a severe thunderstorm watch will be in place for us. Really hitting the wind potential. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1928.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Very windy in Berks County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 the discreet stuff just west of Bill Town has caught my attention and the fact that the craptastic showers in front of the line seem to be becoming less and less I find notable.. I will say this, here in Luzerne County, we have sun/clouds...and when the sun is out it's hot and muggy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I am completely underwhelmed by the line over western/central PA. I think the MD in Central PA sums up what is expected to happen at this point. DISCUSSION...A NARROW BUT LONG BAND OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY WITHOUT CG DETECTED LIGHTNING EXTENDED FROM SWRN NY TO ERN KY AS OF 1530Z...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN 80-100 MILE GAP REMAINS BETWEEN THIS AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING WHERE 15Z TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED. LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST WITH NRN EXTENT...WHILE STRONGER HEATING WITH SRN EXTENT SHOULD PROMOTE RELATIVELY GREATER BUOYANCY. THIS SETUP APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR THE ADVERTISED POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.