am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Re that fine Upton discussion, what, pray tell, is this 'County Warning Area'? The County Warning Area (CWA) is the area of responsibility for the Upton Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ooooook welcome back. Just in time for the 00Z runs. NAM initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 21z SREF's look pretty good at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Right longitude, wrong latitude lol......but it's the SREFs at 87 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nam at 6 hrs has a very strong southern s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 21z SREF's look pretty good. doesn't look good to me...through is flatter when compared to 15z and the surface is weaker and further offshore. Looks like complete **** to me. Don't get your hopes up for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes stronger moving into S Cal at 12hrs. [quote name=blazess556' timestamp='1292464240' post='115380] Nam at 6 hrs has a very strong southern s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nam at 6 hrs has a very strong southern s/w very strong still at 12. much stronger than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I agree, the SREF's look out to sea to me. doesn't look good to me...through is flatter when compared to 15z and the surface is weaker and further offshore. Looks like complete **** to me. Don't get your hopes up for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 SREFS are almost useless at this range. Don't dwell on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Im liking the whole look of the nam. Strogner s/w in the southwest, pv further north, and stronger energy of utah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Actually have a nice surface reflection in the SouthWest now at 30 hrs with decent precip out there. This is the strongest shortwave I have seen in this area yet on the models. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Actually have a nice surface reflection in the SouthWest now at 30 hrs with decent precip out there. This is the strongest shortwave I have seen in this area yet on the models. Interesting. Very nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 PV on 00Z NAM at 30 hrs already slightly west of 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like the PV is eating everything alive. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, I don't really even want to know how this run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes, it really is amazing. Nothing left of that shortwave. Yeah, I don't really even want to know how this run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 In other news, look at that f***ing vort that goes across alaska: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Meanwhile, I am getting hit by one of those Lake Effect streamers and the ground is getting covered here. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM is going to try to bring this up at 84 hours...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Stranger things have occurred, but it looks a day late and a dollar short to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 lol roundin' the corner at 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM is going to try to bring this up at 84 hours...... It looks good it just took too long just a few short hours off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It looks VERY similar to the 18Z GFS, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It looks good it just took too long just a few short hours off! I don't really see anything that screams a miss on this run.....(for most of us)....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 lol roundin' the corner at 84: No it's not. It's heading out to sea although it may hook and hit SNE. I don't really see anything that screams a miss on this run.....(for most of us)....... The NAM extrapolated would be a total miss for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't really see anything that screams a miss on this run.....(for most of us)....... NAM is a complete miss for the NYC metro on this run... Extrapolated would probably show a ENE hit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It looks likely to be a miss when you take the trajectory of the track and precip from 78-84...remember the NAM has those squashed gradients on the NW side of its precip shield so you can usually spread that area out a bit more....those gradients can verify in the right setup, but with no massive confluence or big high west of the low that would not verify in this case. I'd still just be using the Euro/GFS/GEM for now as the NAM is questionable at this range, even though for now its similar to what the 18Z GFS showed the 00Z GFS could go right back to its 12Z depiction again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM is a complete miss for the NYC metro on this run... Extrapolated would probably show a ENE hit.. Run the h5 loop....I wouldn't be so sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I agree. NAM is an obvious miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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