December 18-20 Talking Points - Part 2

[Rtd208]

While things are not looking great tonight I am still not quite ready to throw in the towel on the weekend threat just yet regardless of what the Euro shows tonight, at least not until 12z tomorrow.

[Isotherm]

Tom it showed a hit once at 12z sunday...since then it has been ots on each and every run....it has varied up in sne with cape cod and boston...but pretty much has kept the same idea of no snow for i-95.....

Tim, it had 3-4 consecutive runs with favorable upper levels and basically a big hit/near hit for us. While I agree that the Euro is a better model than the GFS, it certainly hasn't been completely innocent.

[jm1220]

Tim, it had 3-4 consecutive runs with favorable upper levels and basically a big hit/near hit for us. While I agree that the Euro is a better model than the GFS, it certainly hasn't been completely innocent.

I know, and I can count easily several supposed-to-be misses just 48 hours out from what turned out to be major hits here. 12/19/09 was supposed to be a miss to the south 36 hours out with snow showers when I ended up with thundersnow and 18", and even 2/25/09 was supposed to be maybe a 3-6 slushy inch event for Central Park when they ended up with over 20". 12/30/00 was supposed to be a slushy mess in Nassau County the day before when I ended up with almost 18", and even 2/17/03 was supposed to be a miss just a couple of days before from NYC on north. By the way, the Almighty Euro was just as guilty as other models with some of the screwups last year. The foot of snow I received last 2/25 and the 18" on 12/19 would never have happened had the ECMWF been right at this stage in the game. It's probably a better model than the GFS and others but it doesn't render it immaculate or without significant error at times.

Not to say this setup is analogous to the others mentioned above, but these premature weenie suicides are uncalled for at this point. All it will take is a slightly stronger southern stream wave to create a MUCH stronger storm for us. That isn't particularly difficult to come up with 96 hours out. Much more remarkable modelling feats have been accomplished at this range.

The time to throw in the towel will be tomorrow night's 0z runs when the major pieces should have been fully initialized on land, with much better data density. If it's still flat/crushed by then, I'll agree it's likely over.

[Isotherm]

I know, and I can count easily several supposed-to-be misses just 48 hours out from what turned out to be major hits here. 12/19/09 was supposed to be a miss to the south 36 hours out with snow showers when I ended up with thundersnow and 18", and even 2/25/09 was supposed to be maybe a 3-6 slushy inch event for Central Park when they ended up with over 20". 12/30/00 was supposed to be a slushy mess in Nassau County the day before when I ended up with almost 18", and even 2/17/03 was supposed to be a miss just a couple of days before from NYC on north. By the way, the Almighty Euro was just as guilty as other models with some of the screwups last year. The foot of snow I received last 2/25 and the 18" on 12/19 would never have happened had the ECMWF been right at this stage in the game. It's probably a better model than the GFS and others but it doesn't render it immaculate or without significant error at times.

Not to say this setup is analogous to the others mentioned above, but these premature weenie suicides are uncalled for at this point. All it will take is a slightly stronger southern stream wave to create a MUCH stronger storm for us. That isn't particularly difficult to come up with 96 hours out. Much more remarkable modelling feats have been accomplished at this range.

The time to throw in the towel will be tomorrow night's 0z runs when the major pieces should have been fully initialized on land, with much better data density. If it's still flat/crushed by then, I'll agree it's likely over.

Good post Jm, well said. I can count on my one hand the number of our 10"+ storms that were locked in on modelling more than 4 days in advance. The threat may have been shown, but as far as consistent model runs impacting us with a big snow, most of the time it's within 36 to 72 hours. So as you stated - while things don't look good right now - it wouldn't take much to change that.

[Rtd208]

Good post, I agree with this completely. I still think its a bit premature to write this storm off completely and some of the weenie posts have been horrendous, I personally think if we don't start seeing things trend further north and west by 12z tomorrow then I think that would be the time to throw in the towel and move onto the next threat. Like you said, it won't take much for this to become a hit for places like Philly and NYC.

I know, and I can count easily several supposed-to-be misses just 48 hours out from what turned out to be major hits here. 12/19/09 was supposed to be a miss to the south 36 hours out with snow showers when I ended up with thundersnow and 18", and even 2/25/09 was supposed to be maybe a 3-6 slushy inch event for Central Park when they ended up with over 20". 12/30/00 was supposed to be a slushy mess in Nassau County the day before when I ended up with almost 18", and even 2/17/03 was supposed to be a miss just a couple of days before from NYC on north. By the way, the Almighty Euro was just as guilty as other models with some of the screwups last year. The foot of snow I received last 2/25 and the 18" on 12/19 would never have happened had the ECMWF been right at this stage in the game. It's probably a better model than the GFS and others but it doesn't render it immaculate or without significant error at times.

Not to say this setup is analogous to the others mentioned above, but these premature weenie suicides are uncalled for at this point. All it will take is a slightly stronger southern stream wave to create a MUCH stronger storm for us. That isn't particularly difficult to come up with 96 hours out. Much more remarkable modelling feats have been accomplished at this range.

The time to throw in the towel will be tomorrow night's 0z runs when the major pieces should have been fully initialized on land, with much better data density. If it's still flat/crushed by then, I'll agree it's likely over.

[A-L-E-X]

I know, and I can count easily several supposed-to-be misses just 48 hours out from what turned out to be major hits here. 12/19/09 was supposed to be a miss to the south 36 hours out with snow showers when I ended up with thundersnow and 18", and even 2/25/09 was supposed to be maybe a 3-6 slushy inch event for Central Park when they ended up with over 20". 12/30/00 was supposed to be a slushy mess in Nassau County the day before when I ended up with almost 18", and even 2/17/03 was supposed to be a miss just a couple of days before from NYC on north. By the way, the Almighty Euro was just as guilty as other models with some of the screwups last year. The foot of snow I received last 2/25 and the 18" on 12/19 would never have happened had the ECMWF been right at this stage in the game. It's probably a better model than the GFS and others but it doesn't render it immaculate or without significant error at times.

Not to say this setup is analogous to the others mentioned above, but these premature weenie suicides are uncalled for at this point. All it will take is a slightly stronger southern stream wave to create a MUCH stronger storm for us. That isn't particularly difficult to come up with 96 hours out. Much more remarkable modelling feats have been accomplished at this range.

The time to throw in the towel will be tomorrow night's 0z runs when the major pieces should have been fully initialized on land, with much better data density. If it's still flat/crushed by then, I'll agree it's likely over.

Yeah, Ive never understood why people want to be in a rush to proclaim something is over or its a lock.  They need to read more Yogi Berra quotes   Modeling data, especially this far out, is merely guidance not gospel.  People just have a problem with uncertainty-- they need "absolute" certainty-- but until the event occurs or doesnt occur, that's never going to happen.

[famartin]

Euro was the model that initially got us hooked on this threat. So if nothing pans out with this threat, I just hope people remember not to get excited about any model projection beyond 5 days.

However, they should also remember that the GFS was the last to jump onboard, and the last to jump off, while the EC was first for both. So, yeah, while it was the first to get it wrong, it was still first to get it right if the storm Sunday doesn't happen.

[tmagan]

00Z KMA Hour 96

[tombo82685]

s/w in the southwest looks better on the 0z euro so far, not sure how much this is going to help

[tombo82685]

s/w is still stronger, deff more amped this run, hgts are higher on the east coast.

[Ericjcrash]

s/w is still stronger, deff more amped this run, hgts are higher on the east coast.

Well thats good, wouldn't be a surprise if it shows a hit just to add on to this rollercoaster week.

[tombo82685]

through 60 this is deff. more amplified, and the hgts are higher on the east coast. Im not sure if this will trend better in the end result but at h5 it looks a good bit better than 12z

[jm1220]

Well thats good, wouldn't be a surprise if it shows a hit just to add on to this rollercoaster week.

Just a trend at this point toward a stronger southern stream S/W would be a huge first step. This is when the Euro usually locks into a solution, so any help it can provide at this point would be awesome.

[Ridingtime]

If the Euro actually switches gears and shows something good, this will be quite the weather rollercoaster week to remember

[tombo82685]

hr 72 is a lot better than 12, has lgt precip up to central va, with some lgt to mod precip over nc, im not sure its going to be enough, but its a lot better, the torf is more amplified and more neg tilted

[tombo82685]

hr 78 sub 1004 low on hse lgt precip from phl to dc east

[Ericjcrash]

hr 78 sub 1004 low on hse lgt precip from phl to dc east

BIG switch. Ugh! this is so annoying. Pick a solution already!

[tombo82685]

sub 1000 low 100 miles east of orf...lgt precip nyc to phl to dc east lgt to mod just inland on coast

[tombo82685]

hr 90 lgt precip delmarva to phl to nyc, this looks like it may hit sne good...sub 996 low 150-200 miles east of lewes de

[jm1220]

BIG switch. Ugh! this is so annoying. Pick a solution already!

Again, it's a huge first step that can be added to in future runs. We just want to see it in the neighborhood at this juncture. If there's a real wave in the southern stream amplifying into the trough, it'll probably be enough to become our storm given the favorability of the northern stream. If not, no storm since there is little or no northern stream component.

I still think it's either a total or mostly whiff out to sea or a substantial snowstorm for at least Philly northeast.

[tombo82685]

hr 96 sub 988 about 75 miles south of the bm lgt to mod precip nyc east mod over sne

[Ericjcrash]

Again, it's a huge first step that can be added to in future runs. We just want to see it in the neighborhood at this juncture. If there's a real wave in the southern stream amplifying into the trough, it'll probably be enough to become our storm given the favorability of the northern stream. If not, no storm since there is little or no northern stream component.

I still think it's either a total or mostly whiff out to sea or a substantial snowstorm for at least Philly northeast.

Agreed, how much more sig, is the southern S/w on this run?

[jm1220]

hr 90 lgt precip delmarva to phl to nyc, this looks like it may hit sne good...sub 996 low 150-200 miles east of lewes de

Now we just have to pray for two things: that the ensembles have this solution later on, and that 12z on the rest of the suite and Euro continue the trend and it's not a fluke run.

[tombo82685]

hr 102 sub 980 about 150 miles sse of cape cod, lgt to mod precip nyc east, mod over sne and cc

[Isotherm]

This is why people shouldn't be jumping ship at this stage in the game. Even the Euro is not infallible at day 4, usually model variance continues and begins converging on a solution by about 24-48 hours from the event. As far as I can remember, this is a huge shift from the 12z run, and we're still nearly 4 days out.

[Ridingtime]

Seriously, the model inconsistencies with every model is atrocious

[bass28]

Tombo,dont wanna pest you but does that mod precip make it to LI or no?

[tombo82685]

hr 108 sne gets clobbered lol sub 980 50 miles east of nantucket

[earthlight]

Significant hit for long island

[tombo82685]

Tombo,dont wanna pest you but does that mod precip make it to LI or no?

yes it does