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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II


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Interesting, WNW track from early guidance. Maybe Louisiana won't need Ernest to survive.

WHXX01 KWBC 031637

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1637 UTC FRI AUG 3 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120803 1200 120804 0000 120804 1200 120805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.0N 78.5W 25.3N 79.7W 26.2N 81.2W 27.2N 82.6W

BAMD 24.0N 78.5W 25.2N 79.1W 26.2N 79.9W 27.2N 81.4W

BAMM 24.0N 78.5W 25.0N 79.5W 25.9N 80.5W 26.8N 81.9W

LBAR 24.0N 78.5W 25.4N 79.4W 26.8N 80.5W 28.1N 81.5W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 30KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 24KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120805 1200 120806 1200 120807 1200 120808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.9N 84.5W 28.8N 87.4W 29.1N 89.4W 29.2N 91.2W

BAMD 28.2N 83.1W 29.4N 86.5W 30.1N 88.9W 30.7N 89.9W

BAMM 27.7N 83.5W 29.0N 86.6W 29.8N 88.8W 30.3N 90.3W

LBAR 29.4N 82.3W 31.1N 83.4W 32.5N 83.6W 35.5N 83.8W

SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 53KTS 59KTS

DSHP 32KTS 42KTS 50KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 24.0N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 22.6N LONM12 = 77.1W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 75.1W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

NNNN

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90L Update

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS

LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE

BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS

CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL

CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

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Wow-- yeah. It's a fruit salad this morning. I wish all this crap could pool energies and make one, single, quality system.

Well, Ernesto is looking very nice right now, 90L now has a red cherry, and 91L has been designated just east of Florida.

Considering I am in Florida right now for vacation, it should be a interesting next few days.

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Well, Ernesto is looking very nice right now, 90L now has a red cherry, and 91L has been designated just east of Florida.

Considering I am in Florida right now for vacation, it should be a interesting next few days.

Yep-- you could see some interesting weather. Agreed-- Ernesto's looking much better today!!

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Wow-- yeah. It's a fruit salad this morning. I wish all this crap could pool energies and make one, single, quality system.

As long as these ho-hum systems do not ravage peak SSTs and the meat and potatoes of the TC season, it's all good.

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Seriously? It wasn't supposed to be a terribly active year anyways.

It shouldn't bother anyone whether we have 20 NS or two. Unless those particular #s are making /losing money, I'd rather just have one storm in a season and it be like Donna or Andrew- multiple severe landfalls. lol

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The CV cherry has been redesignated as a TD in the ATCF database. :wub::popcorn:

I am thinking that TD 6 will probably remain weak, as it appears to be a relatively small system, and there is a bit of SAL in the system's path. If it remains weak, it will not curve to the north as much, as it will not be influenced by the upper level steering as much. If it remains weak, it will take a more straight path, and will be influenced by the lower level steering more.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012

1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY

DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP

CONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE

CENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY

VERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0

FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS

PERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES

ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE

GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE

WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING

CONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM

SUNY-ALBANY.

Do you think they monitor the board? :lol: Big congrats for Mike Ventrice and Co. up at SUNY-Albany :thumbsup:

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