earthlight Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 As we near the end of the first week of June, severe weather season has been relatively quiet across most of the area. However, we're beginning to enter some of the more active months. Although there is nothing on the immediate horizon, we can use this thread to discuss potential upcoming events throughout the month. The SREF has been pegging Thursday afternoon with some modest 3-hr severe weather probabilities for a few runs now. There seems to be a narrow instability axis (surface and elevated) around 18-21z, but very poor bulk/effective shear parameters. Forecast models are in agreement on a shortwave rotating through the area in response to the upper air system in the afternoon and evening. Looking ahead to the long range, the next potential event in the Northeast could occur around the middle of next week. Forecast models are in decent agreement on a ridge axis building into the Eastern 1/3 of the US with 15-20 C 850 temps advecting towards the area by Monday and Tuesday. At the same time, a very aggressive mid-level shortwave will traverse through Central Canada and then lift north and east. The upper level low will stay far away from the area, but the mid level height falls are indicative of some potential, especially off to our west. The forecast models have been trending away from the more aggressive height falls, and the event is still a long ways out, but it's worth watching over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 It looks like the mid level lapse rates will be steep enough today for some thunderstorms to drop down across the area with the afternoon heating. The storms look to be very slow moving in a weak shear environment. Locally heavy rains may occur with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 That cell in Essex county looks quite potent and isn't moving very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Increasing ZDR, KDP values with the cells near Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Warning with the cell headed towards Brooklyn. Getting stronger also and showing a nice hail signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 743 PM EDT WED JUN 6 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 830 PM EDT... * AT 738 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ELIZABETH...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PORT RICHMOND...BAYONNE...JERSEY CITY...HOBOKEN...TODT HILL...SOHO... TOMPKINSVILLE...BATTERY PARK...OAKWOOD...LOWER EAST SIDE... VERRAZANO-NARROWS BRIDGE...BROOKLYN HEIGHTS...PARK SLOPE...BAY RIDGE...BENSONHURST...CROWN HEIGHTS...FLATBUSH...CONEY ISLAND... SHEEPSHEAD BAY...CANARSIE...HOWARD BEACH AND ROCKAWAY BEACH PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Nice hail here ill upload the videos right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Damn, looks like it just misses me to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 It's pretty cool that the SPC WRF run from 0z was showing the main cell in the same location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Breaking to and just missing me as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Breaking to and just missing me as usual I just heard on the radio that their is a rainbow visible from lower Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 http://imgur.com/OaiRL I got hit nicely, im happy this will hold me over till i can chase in the summer when i can drive . Oh and the imgur link is a rainbow after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 It's pretty cool that the SPC WRF run from 0z was showing the main cell in the same location. The SPC WRF interestingly nailed down individual cells in some of the recent storm outbreaks, I don't remember exact dates though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I got hit nicely, im happy this will hold me over till i can chase in the summer when i can drive . Oh and the imgur link is a rainbow after the storm. Nice videos. Great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I got hit nicely, im happy this will hold me over till i can chase in the summer when i can drive . Oh and the imgur link is a rainbow after the storm. Sick video...congrats on the hail, always cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I got hit nicely, im happy this will hold me over till i can chase in the summer when i can drive . Oh and the imgur link is a rainbow after the storm. I was brushed by a t storm where I live...It looks like it missed me to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I got hit nicely, im happy this will hold me over till i can chase in the summer when i can drive . Oh and the imgur link is a rainbow after the storm. Nice. Sad to have missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 One of the videos was posted twice i edited it with the other video i meant to put in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 The SPC WRF interestingly nailed down individual cells in some of the recent storm outbreaks, I don't remember exact dates though. Yeah, I know it had the hail producing cell in Western NJ on Sunday and another warned cell I think last week that moved out of the Bronx and Westchester into the Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I was brushed by a t storm where I live...It looks like it missed me to the east... Missed me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I love how we always get storms when we dont expect them, but when we do we dont get anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Missed me too. I did have some thunder and a light shower...enough to wet the ground...The sky was very dark looking east and south of me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I enjoy how i sound no where near 17 and the hail, when I went outside was about pea size so I was ecstatic and I absolutely love thunderstorms and hail, too bad it wasn't at night because I love night lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 http://imgur.com/OaiRL I got hit nicely, im happy this will hold me over till i can chase in the summer when i can drive . Oh and the imgur link is a rainbow after the storm. Nice videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I enjoy how i sound no where near 17 and the hail, when I went outside was about pea size so I was ecstatic and I absolutely love thunderstorms and hail, too bad it wasn't at night because I love night lightning. I'm 52 and I have the same excitement when there is a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I love how we always get storms when we dont expect them, but when we do we dont get anything... Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I was in Manhattan when the storm came but did hear one big loud clap of thunder but too bad I wasn't home when the storm came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 0z SPC WRF has convection around NYC again today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 I'd watch for any storms that interact with any boundaries left over from the Newark storms Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 The SPC has placed parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey in a 5% risk for hail today ...PA/WV/MD... MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/LOWER MI. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF PA. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-18 AT 500MB/ WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO MD/WV/VA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS THE STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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