Cfa Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Not a cloud in the sky in Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 7, 2012 Author Share Posted June 7, 2012 I would expect hail out of the storm NW of Atlantic City. Went near 70dbz a few frames ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Pouring on the Nassau/Queens border. The skies looked a little sandstorm-ish before it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Just heard thunder and I see big rainbowm, out my window, to the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Just drizzling here...sky to my west does look like a sandstorm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 from the looks of the spc convective outlook for tommorow, does not look too promising as of right now. only risk area is around DC metro area for tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 from the looks of the spc convective outlook for tommorow, does not look too promising as of right now. only risk area is around DC metro area for tommorow. DC metro? The slight risk for tomorrow is near northern New York/VT with a 5% risk extending down to just north of NYC. Tomorrow's severe risk will still be lower here than to the north. That doesn't rule out isolated storms with locally strong/severe cells though, which in my opinion is as far as activity tomorrow should get in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Three 1" hail reports from the severe-warned storm in NJ earlier today 2241 100 EGG HARBOR TWP ATLANTIC NJ 3936 7464 (PHI) 2241 100 EGG HARBOR CITY ATLANTIC NJ 3954 7459 (PHI) 2241 100 EGG HARBOR CITY ATLANTIC NJ 3956 7460 ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED IN EGG HARBOR CITY. (PHI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 It will be interesting to see if some convection can develop on Saturday afternoon and evening as well. The NAM has some very weak lowered heights over Southern New England in response to a shortwave to our north. The window is small, as mid level heights are rising again by Sunday morning. But the SPC SREF has 40-50+ kts of 0-6km bulk shear which could support organized storms. The NAM also has what looks like some convection along the periphery of the building mid level ridge at 00z Sunday, moving all the way from the International Border in ND/WI into the Northeast. The SPC has outlined our area in a 5%/See Text for Saturday evening ..UPPER MID-ATLANTIC GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO EARLY SAT DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN MODEST WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS. STILL...MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER NWLYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL ALONG A NW/SE-ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. ..GRAMS.. 06/08/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Still See Text & 5% from SPC on Saturday. But sounds more interesting than before: ...SRN AND WRN NY/PA/NJ... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN STATES SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE...A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO SEWD ACROSS WRN NY INTO NE PA. THE MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT BINGHAMTON AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL LOCATION OF THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 ^ Agreed and my interest was piqued as soon as I saw the 40-50kts of effective shear yesterday on the SREF. Whenever you're dealing with that type of shear and some instability near a frontal boundary, it's time to pay attention. But I'm wondering what type of clouds/etc we could be dealing with before hand because the front will be near the area to begin with. When you glance at the SPC WRF you can see it develops a huge updraft just south of the front near the instability..I would imagine there could be a wind and tornado threat if that does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 ^ Agreed and my interest was piqued as soon as I saw the 40-50kts of effective shear yesterday on the SREF. Whenever you're dealing with that type of shear and some instability near a frontal boundary, it's time to pay attention. But I'm wondering what type of clouds/etc we could be dealing with before hand because the front will be near the area to begin with. When you glance at the SPC WRF you can see it develops a huge updraft just south of the front near the instability..I would imagine there could be a wind and tornado threat if that does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Strong t-storm enter Putman County now. I suspect it might get warned soon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Strong t-storm enter Putman County now. I suspect it might get warned soon: that's coming right at me if it makes it into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 It is warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 that's coming right at me if it makes it into CT. it will likey fall apart once it gets the marine influence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 it will likey fall apart once it gets the marine influence... winds are out of the NW, dont think we have much marine influence right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 winds are out of the NW, dont think we have much marine influence right now BDR is S at 9 and i'm SW at about 5-10....we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 lost the warning but still looks healthy on radar. I think its going to make it. Already getting dark here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 there is another cell behind it on the same path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 rolling thunder now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 rolling thunder now going to miss me--Norwalk and south for this one-garden variety storm now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 going to miss me--Norwalk and south for this one-garden variety storm now... impressive little shot of wind right as it arrived, raining now, some thunder, it def weakened but at least it got here. more behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 nice little cell just SW of Peekskill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 nice little cell just SW of Peekskill. not sure it will fair any better, but also on a b-line towards me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 we are the grave yard of t-storms--LI is worse, but we're close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 we are the grave yard of t-storms--LI is worse, but we're close. Yea LI even if the stars align for us its more often than not a dissapointment anyway lol. Tommorow def looks much more promising though as far as more widespread severe weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 The best mid level lapse rates are north of us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 all storms weakening now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 all storms weakening now.... earthlight promised us a TOR for tomorrow, so I am pumped. Steve D. already printing "I survived the 2012 NYC Metro Tornado" as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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