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May 4th - 16th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Well, I am not sure about who my advisor is yet... they are suppose to be getting in touch soon about next steps, etc. I have done most of my talking with Professor Poellot (super nice guy) and Dr. Osbourne. I have been in correspondence with Dr. Askelson and I absolutely love him. I am hoping I can upgrade to a GRA on one of his projects next semester or next year, but also wouldn't mind working with Gretchen Mullendore or Dr. Gilmore. I imagine it is tough to forecast up there for severe. But when the supercells form up there, they are gorgeous. I am excited about the extremes in weather. My friend Joel Siegel just graduated with his Masters and he loved it up there.

PM me your email and I can give you more information.

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WFUS53 KFSD 041906

TORFSD

MNC063-105-041930-

/O.NEW.KFSD.TO.W.0017.120504T1906Z-120504T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

206 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

EAST CENTRAL NOBLES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WORTHINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT

30 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...

BREWSTER AROUND 225 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 6 MILES WEST OF WORTHINGTON AT 203 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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Great discussion Baro, agree with it thoroughly, I really think that if LCL heights don't become much of a problem tomorrow that we could see some potentially prolific supercells given the strong instability and LL shear combo...although particularly in Northeastern NE and Southeast SD where the juxtaposition of parameters is most impressive.

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The weather might be content down here, but its perfect for outdoor leisure! The temperatures are something Southern Ontario might see less than 7 days a year. Sometimes none. Can't complain. But, it would be nice to see some severe storm action in the near future. :whistle: Being from Canada, a thunder clap is the highlight of the week. We've had 3-4 thundershowers so far since I arrived, so I'm happy.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

211 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

MNC063-105-041930-

/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120504T1930Z/

JACKSON MN-NOBLES MN-

211 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL NOBLES AND

WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

WORTHINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 210 PM CDT...A TRONADO WAS REPORTED NEAR WORTHINGTON. DEBRIS WAS

REPORTED NEAR WORTHINGTON.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

BREWSTER AROUND 225 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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Still TOG:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

237 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

MNC063-042000-

/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-120504T2000Z/

JACKSON MN-

237 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON

COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 237 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES

NORTHEAST OF ROUND LAKE...OR 13 MILES EAST OF WORTHINGTON...MOVING

EAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 228 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE NOBLES AND

JACKSON COUNTY LINE...5 MILES NORTH OF ROUND LAKE.

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Impressive rotation on the latest scan...it's moving right down I-90.

FWIW, the 12z Euro has a glimmer of hope at the end of its run...regarding chaser concerns.

I'll be in the Plains starting May 19th so I'm hoping this pattern can change by then. Looking at the long range hasn't been very encouraging so far.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO. THIS TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKEFIELD...OR 9

MILES WEST OF JACKSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

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Wow... look at what the NAM says the 0-1KM EHI will be in NB/KS/IA on Saturday... (As usual the 0-3KM EHI is better)...

Any supercell evolving in that environment would be bad news...

Sounding from the 12z NAM at Norfolk 03z tomorrow evening (this is in the vicinity of that storm/complex the NAM blows up in Northeast NE around this time, with a locally strengthened LLJ, although it is possibly convectively induced, the environment feeding into this thing would be rather crazy), only negative I can see really see is the CINH, look at that obese instability profile...

95txms.jpg

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TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT5/4/12 3:12 pm

AT 305 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO JUST WEST OF JACKSON IN JACKSON COUNTY OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME VERY LARGE HAIL.

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MN cell still producing:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

350 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

MNC091-042130-

/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-120504T2130Z/

MARTIN MN-

350 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN MARTIN COUNTY

UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 344 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF SHERBURN AND WAS MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SHERBURN...WELCOME...AND FOXLAKE.

IA cell as well:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD

352 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

IAC141-042115-

/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120504T2115Z/

O`BRIEN IA-

352 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR O`BRIEN COUNTY UNTIL 415

PM CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST

OF PRIMGHAR...OR 20 MILES EAST OF ORANGE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

PRIMGHAR THROUGH 355 PM CDT.

HARTLEY AROUND 405 PM CDT...

AT 350 PM CDT...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF

PRIMGHAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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Any supercell evolving in that environment would be bad news...

Sounding from the 12z NAM at Norfolk 03z tomorrow evening (this is in the vicinity of that storm/complex the NAM blows up in Northeast NE around this time, with a locally strengthened LLJ, although it is possibly convectively induced, the environment feeding into this thing would be rather crazy), only negative I can see really see is the CINH, look at that obese instability profile...

95txms.jpg

That's a pretty nice Curved Hodograph... Not looking to good for Northeastern/ North-Central Nebraska on Saturday...

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