Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Whiffarooski. GFS on it's own. Hump hump away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 nice little warm surge pushing in here right now up to 57, 63 at hpn 67 nyc, 69 ewr and teterboro, and 61 in farmingdale............nam did well with this warm push well advertised Dews near 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Dews near 60? Doody near your ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 GFS on it's own. Hump hump away So is the euro..lol. Hey, I hope it happens, but I don't have faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Doody near your ? That whole quote is disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Yeah all models had it pushing into NYC and then sort of halting or slowing down. Its just amazing to me that a prolonged below normal regime will not lock in, I said it yesterday, but it felt so damn cold, yet departures were [retty boring -3 -4 ish. Throw in another potential well above normal 3 days early next week. It just seems crazy to bet against warmth averaging out right now, even though shorter wavelengths, cut offs and a slightly -nao and favorable mjo could yield a little white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Its just amazing to me that a prolonged below normal regime will not lock in, I said it yesterday, but it felt so damn cold, yet departures were [retty boring -3 -4 ish. Throw in another potential well above normal 3 days early next week. It just seems crazy to bet against warmth averaging out right now, even though shorter wavelengths, cut offs and a slightly -nao and favorable mjo could yield a little white. I wonder how long a + departure (overall monthly) can last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I wonder how long a + departure (overall monthly) can last. well, here its month 13 in a row, and the last 6 being very impressive. Honestly, I would welcome some snow saturday, I just do not see it happening, the rain today was very encouraging and much needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I wonder how long a + departure (overall monthly) can last. When the "rubber band" snaps. I think that will be around May/June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Its just amazing to me that a prolonged below normal regime will not lock in, I said it yesterday, but it felt so damn cold, yet departures were [retty boring -3 -4 ish. Throw in another potential well above normal 3 days early next week. It just seems crazy to bet against warmth averaging out right now, even though shorter wavelengths, cut offs and a slightly -nao and favorable mjo could yield a little white. It's not the same torch pattern...quite the opposite. The way you're going to get + temp departures is from lack of snow cover to our north. Bootleg warm departures, but regardless..that's how it could mute the cold. However, despite a possible interlude Monday or Tuesday (which is highly suspect here), I do not see a "warm" pattern at all. At least at the moment. It doesn't mean you can't have mild days..we will. The ensembles do try to flirt a warm airmass near us from time to time so it could happen..but it also could be very backdoor-ish too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 It's not the same torch pattern...quite the opposite. The way you're going to get + temp departures is from lack of snow cover to our north. Bootleg warm departures, but regardless..that's how it could mute the cold. However, despite a possible interlude Monday or Tuesday (which is highly suspect here), I do not see a "warm" pattern at all. At least at the moment. It doesn't mean you can't have mid days..we will. The ensembles do try to flirt a warm airmass near us from time to time so it could happen..but it also could be very backdoor-ish too. The point is I do not see a lets say 2 or 3 week period that averages below normal. Sure it we will have cool days, but this is remarkable in the fact that for the last 6 months everywhere I dont think sne has had a sustained below normal period of multiple weeks. I am in no way shape or form saying its +30 days, not even close but where the hell is a negative month?? Its kind of depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 The point is I do not see a lets say 2 or 3 week period that averages below normal. Sure it we will have cool days, but this is remarkable in the fact that for the last 6 months everywhere I dont think sne has had a sustained below normal period of multiple weeks. I am in no way shape or form saying its +30 days, not even close but where the hell is a negative month?? Its kind of depressing. Above normal from now until Oct would be fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I'd much prefer last weeks wx over 50 and sunny and windy. I think 99.9% of us would. Spring is a time where I wish we never had to endure. thankfully we've had numerous nice springs over the last 5 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I loathe temps above 65 until late June...and after Sept 1... But I understand how people can like weeks like last week. At least the td's were pretty low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Above normal from now until Oct would be fine by me. BS lol, you are thinking the same thing i am, give us some snow, one last snow sat, then torch. I would love to see some final flakes. I have seen your multiple bookend posts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 We had plenty of late spring early summer temps in March, I hope we can lock into a wetter pattern that yields some sunny days with temps around 55-65, the sun is so strong this time of year, that temp range is perfectly comfortable, I enjoy the slow transition. Its been too warm too fast, even for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 The point is I do not see a lets say 2 or 3 week period that averages below normal. Sure it we will have cool days, but this is remarkable in the fact that for the last 6 months everywhere I dont think sne has had a sustained below normal period of multiple weeks. I am in no way shape or form saying its +30 days, not even close but where the hell is a negative month?? Its kind of depressing. I know what you mean. I don't see weeks of it either right now. I think if we do go into a more "nino" regime...it favors nrn tier warmth. It will also depend on the NAO, because that will always have a big say in our pattern. If you want QPF, seeing a more yo-yo pattern is favorable for moisture. It's the fast flow +AO and -PNA that has kept us dry and mild. In the mean time, I think we are done with big prolonged + departures for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Man the GFS and GEFS are very warm early next week. It could be legit, but I can see a BDF nearby as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Man the GFS and GEFS are very warm early next week. It could be legit, but I can see a BDF nearby as well. Is the euro showing any warm temps for next week or is it just the GFS and the GEFS by themselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I know what you mean. I don't see weeks of it either right now. I think if we do go into a more "nino" regime...it favors nrn tier warmth. It will also depend on the NAO, because that will always have a big say in our pattern. If you want QPF, seeing a more yo-yo pattern is favorable for moisture. It's the fast flow +AO and -PNA that has kept us dry and mild. In the mean time, I think we are done with big prolonged + departures for now. I think we say very very dry thru May with most of the qpf coming from fropas like today..We are heading for big trouble..Dry NW flows are brutal until convective season in June/July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I think we say very very dry thru May with most of the qpf coming from fropas like today..We are heading for big trouble..Dry NW flows are brutal until convective season in June/July Will there be mass casualties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Will there be mass casualties? Working on you're golf game? Looks like all courses will be snow free even in GC, let me know when you are ready to tee it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Working on you're golf game? Looks like all courses will be snow free even in GC, let me know when you are ready to tee it up! See the outdoor sports thread. There will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Will there be mass casualties? Just scalpings of long haired men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 Is the euro showing any warm temps for next week or is it just the GFS and the GEFS by themselves? Euro tries to warm us up, but it's kind of brief...especially up this way. The ensembles do hint at warm weather, but I could envision a front nearby as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Euro tries to warm us up, but it's kind of brief...especially up this way. The ensembles do hint at warm weather, but I could envision a front nearby as well. There might be a secondary reflection on the cutter that keeps us from really warming up...but if we do torch from the cutter, its likely to be pretty brief...day or two at most and then we get socked into that ULL from hell that spins over usfor days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Just scalpings of long haired men If I were from the MA sub-forum I would report this post as a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 There might be a secondary reflection on the cutter that keeps us from really warming up...but if we do torch from the cutter, its likely to be pretty brief...day or two at most and then we get socked into that ULL from hell that spins over usfor days after. I think the 6 or 12z gfs had a pretty robust secondary signal today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 GEFS looked like they were a bit north of 12z...several members are not bad for CT. Def still have to watch this Saturday threat even though we might be leaning toward a miss right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 There might be a secondary reflection on the cutter that keeps us from really warming up...but if we do torch from the cutter, its likely to be pretty brief...day or two at most and then we get socked into that ULL from hell that spins over usfor days after. Yeah I'm kind of meh on the warmth right now because of that possibility. But that's also quite the trough out west. The one thing that is back and may mute the warm spell is the blocking up to our north. The previous big warm spell had a raging +AO. Models will be everywhere next week i think and then the ULL rots over us. It would be nice to try and capitalize on all these ULLs over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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