weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If the euro looks anything close to the nam it will be time to chuck...but it wont. The nam is beautiful. 3-5" with some 6" or 7" amounts? Maybe more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I was I school so I really did not look too much into it either. But I'm done with snow. I'm in severe Wx mode now. You are probably in the wrong thread then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I was I school so I really did not look too much into it either. But I'm done with snow. I'm in severe Wx mode now. If it can snow I'll take it...we still have at least another 6 weeks anyways before we see any real, legit severe threats that will actually have a chance to produce. I'm pumped for Friday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Warning snows Classic nam overdoing it run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Its a classic SWFE track on the shortwave for an SNE snow event...unfortunately its the NAM and we need to see the Euro come on board. But given the model swings that have been going on, its certainly possible. Looks like a solid advisory event with maybe a few lollis into the warning range...esp out in the Berkshires where the lift is better as they are further removed from the meat grinder confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If it can snow I'll take it...we still have at least another 6 weeks anyways before we see any real, legit severe threats that will actually have a chance to produce. I'm pumped for Friday night! Agree but for my area it's not too likely. But have fun with whatever you get up there. I think it will be a decent April event. Hopefully next winter is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Really nice lift moving through! Soundings certainly supportive of snow down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Warning snows Classic nam overdoing it run. Good for you, have fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Eh...probably not warning, but the timing is good and it looks like .4-.6 falling early AM Saturday. Some areas would def hit 6+ verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Classic SWFE sounding that wiz posted for HFD...look at that warm punch at 750mb...still cold enough for snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Good for you, have fun. I wouldn't mind a nice 4-6" sf for my 18th birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Berks down into the Litchfield Hills in CT could certainly get smoked with a solid 5-7'' of snowfall if the NAM were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Eh...probably not warning, but the timing is good and it looks like .5-.75 falling early AM Saturday. Some areas would def hit 6+ verbatim. And for April that would be around 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Its a classic SWFE track on the shortwave for an SNE snow event...unfortunately its the NAM and we need to see the Euro come on board. But given the model swings that have been going on, its certainly possible. Looks like a solid advisory event with maybe a few lollis into the warning range...esp out in the Berkshires where the lift is better as they are further removed from the meat grinder confluence. Verbatim it is a great run for most of SNE, especially W SNE. Unfortunately, the NAM often seems a bit overdone in this time frame WRT to SWFEs running into a confluent flow. I bet GFS comes in rather suppressed. Hard to tell what Euro will do, but I bet it comes in between the two. If I had to make my pick for a sweet spot in this event it is Poconos and southern Catskills, maybe NW CT if the confluence doesn't tear up the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 And for April that would be around 2-4" Agreed. 5-8:10 ratios probably considering the warm start we've had to spring and lack of good soil temps. Temp. swing will be a lot like 10/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 And for April that would be around 2-4" Yeah probably. Especially b/c its more like .4 to .6 qpf, I was extrapolating but central NY gets a stripe of 6-8" while I get like 3-4" this run. I'd certainly take it though. edit: btw its March 31st so its not an April event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Verbatim it is a great run for most of SNE, especially W SNE. Unfortunately, the NAM often seems a bit overdone in this time frame WRT to SWFEs running into a confluent flow. I bet GFS comes in rather suppressed. Hard to tell what Euro will do, but I bet it comes in between the two. If I had to make my pick for a sweet spot in this event it is Poconos and southern Catskills, maybe NW CT if the confluence doesn't tear up the precip shield. Yeah until other guidance comes in more amped, it doesn't mean much yet. Though it was encouraging to see the SREFs bump northward a good tick...so hopefully that is supportive of further north trend with other guidance, but we'll have to just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 hmmm... The NAM is very interesting moving through Saturday, the main precip shield that impacts us Friday night into Saturday is actually well out ahead of the two main s/w's. During the day on Saturday the two energies sort of split, with the southern portion of the energy actually becoming negatively tilted and it really starts to dig just off to our west, meanwhile the northern piece of energy just passes to our north. The NAM tries to get that coastal going, however, the phase occurs just to late. Regardless though, the NAM does hang back quite a bit of moisture and there is still plenty of lift around so it's possible we could see off an on snow showers throughout the day and even some nice upslope snows for the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Agreed. 5-8:10 ratios probably considering the warm start we've had to spring and lack of good soil temps. Temp. swing will be a lot like 10/29. Ratios are often very elevation dependent in late season events...they usually run around 8 or 9 to 1 here in April events but I've seen it at 13 or 15 to 1 if the snow is falling heavily with good snow growth. If the snow is generally moderate or less, its closer to 8 to 1 which is what we had here last April 1st. We had 6.5" on about .75 of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Wow...congrats Geneva, Syracuse, Utica corridor along the NYS Thruway. That's over and inch of QPF. Even Logan11 does really well this run. Confluence FTL further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 This is a March event people...not April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Wow...congrats Geneva, Syracuse, Utica corridor along the NYS Thruway. That's over and inch of QPF. Even Logan11 does really well this run. Confluence FTL further east. Maybe one of the few times I'd rather be at my old stomping grounds in Ithaca, NY than here for a synoptic snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 This is a March event people...not April. 3/31....close enough I guess, lol. 1997 had a solid chunk of the storm on 3/31 but everyone calls it the April '97 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Nice run for SNE... pretty much all snow too except immediate coast. As soon as CTBlizz wakes up he'll be calling for Winter Storm Watches Really smokes Logan11 and the ALB area, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 3/31....close enough I guess, lol. 1997 had a solid chunk of the storm on 3/31 but everyone calls it the April '97 storm. I know lol...It's the most important date in March though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I expect Kevin to be calling for 4-8'' with lolli's to 10''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Nice run for SNE... pretty much all snow too except immediate coast. As soon as CTBlizz wakes up he'll be calling for Winter Storm Watches Really smokes Logan11 and the ALB area, too. I'm gonna try and head up ti the Catskills for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I expect Kevin to be calling for 4-8'' with lolli's to 10''. That's what I was thinking... the most robust model has less than 1/2" QPF but I'm sure somehow that's a 4-8" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 That's what I was thinking... the most robust model has less than 1/2" QPF but I'm sure somehow that's a 4-8" forecast. He'll say we'll have high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 That's what I was thinking... the most robust model has less than 1/2" QPF but I'm sure somehow that's a 4-8" forecast. He'd say this: Well the gfs should never be considered...so toss that. Then you have the GGEM,SREFS, and NAM all giving a decent snow event to CT...so therefore the euro is an outlier. Then he'd throw in something about how the pattern supports it,,,toss a few AWTs...and then throw out some AFD from central NY that says they are considering advisories in a few shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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