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Hoosier

SPC High Risk Climatology 1989-2011

27 posts in this topic

I was curious to see how often a High Risk is issued in the Lakes and/or Ohio Valley so I began working on a project a while back. With the help of convectiveoutlook.com, I was able to go all the way back into the late 1980's. I believe I have all of the high risks that have been issued since the late 1990's, but I'm fairly confident that I am missing at least a few from before then. Because of potential missing dates, the data below should be interpreted as the minimum number of high risk days that have occurred for a particular area.

As we all know, SPC issues several day 1 convective outlooks each day. It is possible to be in several high risk outlooks on the same day. For purposes of this post, a day with 1 high risk outlook is no different than a day with 4. In some cases, the high risk boundary barely crossed a state line. Nonetheless, it was counted as a high risk day for the state.

Anyway, here is the list of high risks by state:

Illinois:

11/15/89

6/2/90

6/16/92

6/17/92

11/27/94

5/13/95

4/19/96

7/1/97

4/15/98

6/14/98

4/8/99

4/11/01

10/24/01

11/10/02

5/10/03

5/24/04

5/30/04

11/15/05

3/12/06

6/7/07

2/5/08

4/24/10

10/26/10

5/25/11

Indiana:

11/15/89

6/2/90

6/17/92

11/27/94

4/19/96

4/15/98

10/24/01

11/10/02

5/10/03

5/30/04

11/15/05

10/26/10

5/25/11

Ohio:

6/2/90

6/17/92

4/19/96

10/24/01

11/10/02

5/10/03

5/30/04

11/15/05

10/26/10

Wisconsin:

6/2/90

6/17/92

8/27/94

7/1/97

4/11/01

6/11/01

4/16/02

7/31/02

5/30/04

6/7/07

Michigan:

6/2/90

6/17/92

8/27/94

10/24/01

7/31/02

5/10/03

5/30/04

6/7/07

10/26/10

Kentucky:

11/15/89

6/2/90

11/27/94

4/19/96

4/15/98

6/14/98

10/24/01

11/10/02

5/4/03

5/5/03

5/10/03

5/30/04

11/15/05

4/7/06

2/5/08

4/24/10

5/1/10

10/26/10

5/25/11

At least two days featured a high risk in parts of all 6 states: June 2, 1990 and May 30, 2004

6/2/90 (thanks to baroclinicity for this image)

post-14-0-66467900-1329878355.png

5/30/04 (clipped the extreme southwest corner of Michigan)

post-14-0-67751200-1329878553.gif

To narrow things down a bit, I divided the region into equal size boxes. One box is larger than the rest but covers less US area. Boxes go from left to right starting at the top, i.e. the northwestern most box is box 1 and the southeastern most box is box 11. The numbers indicate the number of days that a high risk outlook touched any part of that box.

post-14-0-62891100-1329878844.png

As you can see, the southwestern most box (box 8) has experienced the greatest number of high risk days, with areas farther northeast experiencing steady declines. While the boxes provide another perspective, they can be misleading. Any particular location in each box likely hasn't experienced anywhere near the number of high risk days. With that in mind, here is a list of high risk days for selected cities:

Chicago: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/10/03, 5/30/04

Milwaukee: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94

Indianapolis: 6/2/90, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11

Detroit: 6/2/90, 10/24/01, 10/26/10

Columbus: 10/24/01, 11/10/02, 5/10/03, 10/26/10

Louisville: 11/15/89, 6/2/90, 11/27/94, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 11/10/02, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11

St. Louis: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 4/19/96, 4/15/98, 6/14/98, 4/8/99, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06, 5/25/11

Grand Rapids: 6/2/90, 6/17/92

Toledo: 6/2/90, 10/24/01, 10/26/10

Fort Wayne: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10

Madison: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 7/1/97, 4/11/01, 6/11/01, 5/30/04, 6/7/07

Cedar Rapids: 6/2/90, 6/16/92, 6/17/92, 7/1/97, 4/8/99, 4/11/01, 3/12/06, 6/7/07

Evansville: 6/2/90, 11/27/94, 4/19/96, 4/15/98, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10, 5/25/11

Springfield, IL: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 4/19/96, 4/8/99, 4/11/01, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06

Green Bay: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 6/7/07

La Crosse: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 8/27/94, 7/1/97, 6/11/01, 6/7/07

Moline: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 5/13/95, 7/1/97, 4/11/01, 5/10/03, 5/24/04, 5/30/04, 3/12/06, 6/7/07

and this thread wouldn't be complete without some homerism...

Lafayette: 6/2/90, 6/17/92, 4/19/96, 10/24/01, 5/10/03, 5/30/04, 11/15/05, 10/26/10

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Very nice.

Patrick Marsh did something here for the whole US (and with moderate risks)

highriskclimo.png

Yep, I'm aware of that. He lists some dates that aren't in Beau's high risk archive (presumably some of which would cover part of the area) which is why I think I'm missing some.

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Yep, I'm aware of that. He lists some dates that aren't in Beau's high risk archive (presumably some of which would cover part of the area) which is why I think I'm missing some.

Btw I didn't mean that to come across like "its already been done" kinda way in case thats how it sounded ahaha. Yours is more detailed :)

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Btw I didn't mean that to come across like "its already been done" kinda way in case thats how it sounded ahaha. Yours is more detailed :)

No problem. I didn't take it that way.

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Gonna go out on a limb and say we see at least one in this region this year.

I will double the money here, I say we have 2 that occur somewhere within the GLOV.

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I will double the money here, I say we have 2 that occur somewhere within the GLOV.

Based on past history, it's very likely that there will be at least 1. Only 4 years didn't have a high risk somewhere in the area - 1991, 1993, 2000, 2009. One of the days I wonder about is 3/27/91 but I can't find any info on what risk level there was.

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Based on past history, it's very likely that there will be at least 1. Only 4 years didn't have a high risk somewhere in the area - 1991, 1993, 2000, 2009. One of the days I wonder about is 3/27/91 but I can't find any info on what risk level there was.

That is one I am unsure of, but I remember that being one hell of an outbreak. Just looking back at the NCDC stuff, Kalamazoo County had 4.50" hail among all the tornadoes that occurred in MI that day/evening.

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That is one I am unsure of, but I remember that being one hell of an outbreak. Just looking back at the NCDC stuff, Kalamazoo County had 4.50" hail among all the tornadoes that occurred in MI that day/evening.

Yeah it was a pretty decent outbreak. O'Hare had an 84 mph wind gust, the highest on record there, although that isn't the official Chicago wind record because the official site has moved around over the years.

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I never would have thought Indiana would have had 4 high risks in November and 2 in October in Indiana.

I did a research paper about Indiana's fall severe weather season when I was at Ball State. It was definitely very interesting to see how many major outbreaks we had in October and November.

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I never would have thought Indiana would have had 4 high risks in November and 2 in October in Indiana.

The one in October of 2010 was a month after I moved to Louisville.... that was an insane storm system. A tornado dropped down less than a mile northwest of my workplace at the locks on the Ohio River. There was quite a bit of damage around the area.

That said, thanks for this thread... very interesting! I find it intriguing that Louisville...and the state of Indiana as a whole... went 4 years without seeing a high risk between 2005 and 2010.

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Here are the high risk days corresponding to each region on the map in the first post. Again, these are the days where a high risk outlook touched any part of the box.

Region 1 (northern MN/northern WI/western UP): 5

6/17/92

8/27/94

4/16/02

7/31/02

6/7/07

Region 2 (central/eastern UP): 3

6/17/92

8/27/94

6/7/07

Region 3 (southeast MN/northeast IA/WI): 11

6/2/90

6/16/92

6/17/92

8/27/94

7/1/97

4/11/01

6/11/01

4/16/02

5/30/04

6/7/07

6/5/08

Region 4 (far eastern WI/MI): 6

6/2/90

6/17/92

8/27/94

10/24/01

5/30/04

6/7/07

Region 5 (much of eastern MI): 4

6/2/90

6/17/92

10/24/01

10/26/10

Region 6 (parts of IA/IL/MO): 20

6/2/90

6/16/92

6/17/92

5/13/95

4/19/96

7/1/97

4/15/98

6/14/98

4/8/99

4/11/01

10/24/01

5/4/03

5/10/03

5/22/04

5/24/04

5/30/04

11/15/05

3/12/06

6/7/07

5/25/11

Region 7 (parts of eastern IL/IN/southern MI/extreme western OH): 13

6/2/90

6/17/92

5/13/95

4/19/96

4/15/98

4/8/99

4/11/01

10/24/01

5/10/03

5/30/04

11/15/05

10/26/10

5/25/11

Region 8 (most of OH/parts of southeast MI): 8

6/2/90

6/17/92

10/24/01

11/10/02

5/10/03

5/30/04

11/15/05

10/26/10

Region 9 (parts of MO/southwestern IL/western KY and TN/small part of AR): 28

11/15/89

6/2/90

6/16/92

6/17/92

11/27/94

5/13/95

4/19/96

4/15/98

4/16/98

6/14/98

4/8/99

5/4/99

4/11/01

10/24/01

11/10/02

5/4/03

5/5/03

5/10/03

5/24/04

5/30/04

11/15/05

3/12/06

4/7/06

2/5/08

4/24/10

4/30/10

5/1/10

5/25/11

Region 10 (southeastern IL/southern IN/central KY and TN): 21

11/15/89

6/2/90

11/27/94

4/19/96

4/15/98

4/16/98

6/14/98

4/8/99

4/11/01

10/24/01

11/10/02

5/5/03

5/10/03

5/30/04

11/15/05

4/7/06

2/5/08

4/24/10

5/1/10

10/26/10

5/25/11

Region 11 (extreme southern OH/eastern KY and TN and adjacent eastern area): 10

11/15/89

4/19/96

6/14/98

10/24/01

11/10/02

5/5/03

5/10/03

5/30/04

11/15/05

10/26/10

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One down and we are only at March 3rd...

 

Actually at this point at this early in the year with a major tornado outbreak already verified in the area, I'm beginning to think more than two...

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Sorry if unallowed bump, but wanted to update days (not all affected states may be included):

3/2/12 IN KY OH

6/12/13 IL IN OH - Potentially only High Risk with tornado probability under 15% in large part of area

11/17/13 IL IN MI OH - Furthest north high risk in November previous 11/15/05 included IN OH but not MI

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Updating for through 2013 by cities (2012 and 2013 days):

 

Chicago: 6/12/13, 11/17/13

 

Milwaukee: No additional days

Indianapolis: 11/17/13

Detroit: No additional days

Columbus: No additional days

Louisville: 3/2/12

St. Louis: No additional days

Grand Rapids: No additional days

Toledo: No additional days

Fort Wayne: 6/12/13, 11/17/13

Madison: No additional days

Cedar Rapids: No additional days

Evansville: 3/2/12, 11/17/13

 

Springfield, IL: 11/17/13

Green Bay: No additional days

La Crosse: No additional days

Moline: 6/12/13

 

Now also going by state: IN and OH had a portion of the state in High Risk on all three days in the list above. IL and MI on 6/12/13 and 11/17/13. WI was just barely clipped on 6/12/13. KY on 3/2/12. IA had small portion in High on 6/12/13. MO was actually clipped (but in the extreme western potion so not sure if it counts) on 4/14/12, which was much further west High Risk than the other three.

 

Oh and forgot to mention, IA was also clipped in the far west on 4/14/12.

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