usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/two-upcoming-chances-for-light-snow-friday-morning-and-sunday-morning/2012/01/11/gIQAIL9ArP_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Great writeup like usual, so a dusting before our torch is our best hope . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Great writeup like usual, so a dusting before our torch is our best hope . I think so but it won't be a torch everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Another informative write up. Thanks, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think so but it won't be a torch everyday. But it will be no snow, i guess i will love my dusting and start praying February is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm liking the NAM look of the early Friday AM system. Annimating the freezing level on the 850 mb temperature charts shows the strong west to east CAA and it is outracing the precipitation for once. The precipitation shuts off from west to east and reaches the Chesapeake Bay by 10Z. (5 am Friday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm liking the NAM look of the early Friday AM system. Annimating the freezing level on the 850 mb temperature charts shows the strong west to east CAA and it is outracing the precipitation for once. The precipitation shuts off from west to east and reaches the Chesapeake Bay by 10Z. (5 am Friday). The 850 temps zero line is faster than the o line at the surface. The temp at DCA at the ground is 9.2C at 06Z and 3C at 09Z. The precip by then has shut off and we get no precip at 09Z so I don't see this run as being that different than the old one, maybe a little colder but in terms of snow, not much different than the last run. We might see a few flakes right at the end but most of the precip will fall as rain and I don't see much chance for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The temp at DCA at the ground is 9.2C at 06Z and 3C at 09Z. Wes, thank you for the frequent understandable lessons. For understanding, I attached the NAM forecast soundings; the latest available being 12Z. The boundary layer changes dramatically from one image to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wes, thank you for the frequent understandable lessons. For understanding, I attached the NAM forecast soundings; the latest available being 12Z. The boundary layer changes dramatically from one image to the other. By 12Z the precip is long gone. note how much separation there is between the temperature lines and dewpoints. It gets pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 By 12Z the precip is long gone. note how much separation there is between the temperature lines and dewpoints. It gets pretty dry. The SREF depicts that the boundary layers support frozen precipitation just as the 6-hour precipitation shuts off. Someone west of the Bay could get light snow/sleet/rain showers just as the road surfaces near freezing north and west of DC/Baltimore during Friday morning rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 The SREF depicts that the boundary layers support frozen precipitation just as the 6-hour precipitation shuts off. Someone west of the Bay could get light snow/sleet/rain showers just as the road surfaces near freezing north and west of DC/Baltimore during Friday morning rush hour. I looked at the sref probabilities for snow and it puts it at 09Z at 20%. For snow lovers who will settle for any amounts the 06Z gfs is the model of choice as it predicts .04" liquid equivalent as snow for DCA and 0.025 for IAD. The nam has something like .004 or so for both places, essentially a trace at the end of the event. I guess either is a possibility though accumulating snow from frontal systems with no real low to speak of in the face of cold advection is pretty rare. Could happen but I'd go with a forecast of showers possibly changing to snow before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wes, you rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Katie, That picture scares me. The 12Z nam doesn't look very encouraging to snow lovers. The freezing line is still west of us at 09Z suggesting even if it did change to snow it would not be much and would have a tough time sticking on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Katie, That picture scares me. The 12Z nam doesn't look very encouraging to snow lovers. The freezing line is still west of us at 09Z suggesting even if it did change to snow it would not be much and would have a tough time sticking on roads. I was just checking the NAM on e wall (they have those high res images now) and yeah, its not good for snow At. All. Oh well. You still rock though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Katie, That picture scares me. The 12Z nam doesn't look very encouraging to snow lovers. The freezing line is still west of us at 09Z suggesting even if it did change to snow it would not be much and would have a tough time sticking on roads. I got .5" on Monday when temps were forecast to be too warm for all snow. I can live with a T again on grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I got .5" on Monday when temps were forecast to be too warm for all snow. I can live with a T again on grassy areas. Maybe the gfs will look better though cold fronts usually are not great producers because behind the front the cold advection fights the lifting from the vorticity advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Maybe the gfs will look better though cold fronts usually are not great producers because behind the front the cold advection fights the lifting from the vorticity advection. how is your 1-3 inch clipper coming along that you encouraged zwyts about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 how is your 1-3 inch clipper coming along that you encouraged zwyts about? lol, you sure have reading comprehension problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 lol, you sure have reading comprehension problems. He's just trolling to get a reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 He's just trolling to get a reaction. I know and it's pretty sad but it can be annoying at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 The nam for tomorrow morning frontal passage (DCA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The nam for tomorrow morning frontal passage (DCA) Suckers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 BWI gonna get a NAM flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 BWI gonna get a NAM flizzard maybe there is hope for those of us much further north of BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 BWI gonna get a NAM flizzard I will send pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 BWI gonna get a NAM flizzard Everyone get's a GFS-zzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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