Chris L Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Yes, the only problem is that we don't have ridge over Greenland to keep it there. So we still threading the needle with this. It isn't the year February 2010 block, where we would get KU after KU or even last January 2011 ideal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You have this a little askew IMHO. First you said we didn't have one, now we do and it still isn't good? First of all, we have a davis strait block. This should force the vort into the trough to help amplify the flow and keep the storm from cutting. That's step one. Second, we have deep fresh cold air related to the PNA ridge and finally a relaxaton of the +++++AO. Third, the 50/50's main job is to keep the HP in place long enough to keep it from scooting east and torching the coastal plain prior to the storms approach. In this situation, we aren't worried about this since this is a miller b setup, at least right now, and we have a cold flow across the north east. Even still, we do have something crossing the 50/50 area. Also, you want the 50/50 low to move out so the new storm can approach and not get shoved out to sea. Most of our great storms are with west based retrograding blocks that allow the 50/50 lows to move out and the new storms to move in. If only February 5-6, 2010 had weakened the PV lobe and the 50-50 low..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 If only February 5-6, 2010 had weakened the PV lobe and the 50-50 low..... i stick by my contention that that block was too east based which is why the PV couldn't escape. Had we gotten the center of those anomolies further west, whole different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wow, the 12z GFS brings the lingering low over the southeast very close to producing a massive snowstorm for us on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wow, the GFS brings the lingering low over the southeast very close to producing a massive snowstorm for us. Surface temps are warm though. The ensembles have been showing this for days and no one cared to follow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You have this a little askew IMHO. First you said we didn't have one, now we do and it still isn't good? First of all, we have a davis strait block. This should force the vort into the trough to help amplify the flow and keep the storm from cutting. That's step one. Second, we have deep fresh cold air related to the PNA ridge and finally a relaxaton of the +++++AO. Third, the 50/50's main job is to keep the HP in place long enough to keep it from scooting east and torching the coastal plain prior to the storms approach. In this situation, we aren't worried about this since this is a miller b setup, at least right now, and we have a cold flow across the north east. Even still, we do have something crossing the 50/50 area. Also, you want the 50/50 low to move out so the new storm can approach and not get shoved out to sea. Most of our great storms are with west based retrograding blocks that allow the 50/50 lows to move out and the new storms to move in. I'm not saying it's not good at all. I'm saying it might not put, long enough before starts s/w digs. And this isn't retrograding block. The block develops west of Baffin Island. We don't have -NAO before this. Without the 50/50 low we have no cold air source or no confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Only because the precip is offshore. If the precip is onshore the surface temps will be cold enough. Look at South Jersey where the precip is, the surface temps are in the mid 30's Surface temps are warm though. The ensembles have been showing this for days and no one cared to follow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Surface temps are warm though. The ensembles have been showing this for days and no one cared to follow it. Not that warm at all and if that low bombs out closer to the coast, this is a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Not that warm at all and if that low bombs out closer to the coast, this is a snowstorm. Thats right 1 . behind the front the low level will not get caught by models til Thrs - ala last storm 2 . if you do phase dynamic cooling occurs . we r close - i cant bite on full phase yet - but dont look at surface interpretations this far out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 I think we may be waiting a bit...but looking at the next threat by the first weekend of February...maybe lagging into the first week of the month around Feb 5-6. Global ensembles are trying to hint at the synoptic setup which could be favorable for something in this time frame as well. Obviously at this range...things are muted...given the variance of the ensemble guidance and the general uncertainty of the pattern. Yet...seeing high latitude ridging (and we're talking heights, this time...not height anomalies) on the ensemble means is encouraging. But such an event would fit well into the mold of the stratospheric warming lag...with the warming event that shot up to well above normal values even at 70 hpa a few weeks ago. In an ideal situation the upper level low in the sea of japan would teleconnect with a ridge axis on the west coast (we'll see if the big time alaskan vortex has something to say about that) ...and the ridge axis could roll near Boise....in sync with the higher latitude ridging extending from the N Atlantic towards Baffin Island. We'll see...plenty of things could go wrong between now and then. Just a thought...eyeballing the pattern down the road. The GEFS kinda play to this as well...if you want a treat, loop through the 00z GEFS height anomalies through around 324 (I know, i know..) and it plays out pretty nicely by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 WOW!!!!! Did you guys see the UKMET for Sunday. Mother of GOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 WOW!!!!! Did you guys see the UKMET for Sunday. Mother of GOD! what's it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Not that warm at all and if that low bombs out closer to the coast, this is a snowstorm. Don't agree fully. If this storm gets pulled to the west and northwest, it may end up warmer. On a synoptic scale, it would mean that the northern stream feature which is bringing the colder air into the Northeast would be bumped back farther to the west as well. The storm would have to dynamically produce its own cold air in an otherwise unfavorable airmass. You can see this on some of the GFS ensembles which have the storm close to the coast. Warm/wet...or cold/dry. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_6z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 If I am reading it right, a blizzard. what's it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Don't agree fully. If this storm gets pulled to the west and northwest, it may end up warmer. On a synoptic scale, it would mean that the northern stream feature which is bringing the colder air into the Northeast would be bumped back farther to the west as well. The storm would have to dynamically produce its own cold air in an otherwise unfavorable airmass. You can see this on some of the GFS ensembles which have the storm close to the coast. Warm/wet...or cold/dry. http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_6z/f108.gif Member P004 looks better than the rest - anything different in its solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The UKMET develops a low on Sunday morning along the Carolina Coast, moving it due north and deepens it to a 969mb north of Maine by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 The UKMET develops a low on Sunday morning along the Carolina Coast, moving it due north and deepens it to a 969mb north of Maine by Monday morning. The Euro at 00z was very similar...that doesn't mean it's giving us a blizzard. In fact it's far from it...the Euro gave us almost no snow at all. The phase occurs in the Gulf of Maine and the storm deepens rapidly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Is that the way you are reading the UKMET? It looks to bomb it south of us to me, but I will defer to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 <p><p> Member P004 looks better than the rest - anything different in its solution? Nothing really, it's probably just not correct. With the second storm....it also has the most agressive mid level energy of all of the ensemble members. You can see the orientation of the trough here. It gives us more snow at 132 hrs. Looks like one of the weenies wrote the source code for that ensemble. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_6z/f132.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_6z/f138.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Is that the way you are reading the UKMET? It looks to bomb it south of us to me, but I will defer to you. If you call a broad 1016mb low a bomb, then yes..it's a bomb. Go nuts. http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Maybe it will surprise us, I doubt anything happens but you never know. PNA begins to rise in the coming days while the AO is now solidly negative. February at this point remains a question mark, but if the AO average neutral to negative, then it won't be as warm as this month was. Also with the PNA remaining positive, it will at least guarantee us transient cold shots for the coming weeks so we have the opportunity to time something to give us more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Yes, that is at hour 120 when it has a 1014 centered along the Carolina Coast, but the question is when and where does it bomb? At hour 144 it is at 969 mb north of Maine. If you call a broad 1016mb low a bomb, then yes..it's a bomb. Go nuts. http://meteocentre.c...PN_120_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Troughs this deep crashing into the Ohio valley rarely have nothing associated with them . If anything they trend colder as we get closer . so i would not worry about surface temp this far out . IMO They will get colder by late week runs . The issue is where do the best dynamics take place ( if at all ) East of Hatteras , Delmarva or downeast Miane . Temps will take care of themselves . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Nothing really, it's probably just not correct. With the second storm....it also has the most agressive mid level energy of all of the ensemble members. You can see the orientation of the trough here. It gives us more snow at 132 hrs. Looks like one of the weenies wrote the source code for that ensemble. http://www.meteo.psu...HGT_6z/f132.gif http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_6z/f138.gif So do you think we have no chance or is there some in a thread the needle situation? The setip looks better around 132 hours if only something could develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 If you call a broad 1016mb low a bomb, then yes..it's a bomb. Go nuts. http://meteocentre.c...PN_120_0000.gif we won't know, but i would imagine that storm does deepen rapidly up the coast based on the trough going negative at this juncture. Do not agree with OP's mother of g0d analysis, but that is certainly a better setup than what the goofus showed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 also note 500 trying to close off over the upper midwest at 120 on the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The storm for the Sunday/Monday time frame has a great chance at developing into more. Luckily we still have 5+ days to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The storm for the Sunday/Monday time frame has a great chance at developing into more. Luckily we still have 5+ days to watch this. Okay cool...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The storm for the Sunday/Monday time frame has a great chance at developing into more. Luckily we still have 5+ days to watch this. This, but it could just as easily if not more easily crap out. We are dealing with an eternities worth of time here. Something fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 This, but it could just as easily if not more easily crap out. We are dealing with an eternities worth of time here. Something fun to track. It's a tough call, if the phase occurs too soon it will be rain for us and a big storm for Pittsburgh. If it's too weak ala UKMET we won't get much of anything. If we had really strong high pressure anchored over Canada we wouldn't need an intense storm to produce here. The low centers for both 96 and PDII were relatively weak, but the systems crawled up the coast. That is a massive amount of moisture running through the MS valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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