earthlight Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 All of the SREF members came north by 50-100 miles with the precipitation shield for the Monday Night/Tuesday light snowfall possibility. The Euro at 12z brings very light QPF to the area. NAM has not been enthused, nor has the GFS. Moving forward, we continue to carefully watch the stratospheric warming and its effects on the Pacific and Atlantic. Interesting few weeks ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 All of the SREF members came north by 50-100 miles with the precipitation shield for the Monday Night/Tuesday light snowfall possibility. The Euro at 12z brings very light QPF to the area. NAM has not been enthused, nor has the GFS. Moving forward, we continue to carefully watch the stratospheric warming and its effects on the Pacific and Atlantic moving forward. Interesting few weeks ahead. for this winter as of now the light snow event is atleast something for us, you gotta be happy about that. the support for a more favorable pattern for us as well is reason for us to atleast start to get excited about a possibility of setting us up for a decent end to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 All of the SREF members came north by 50-100 miles with the precipitation shield for the Monday Night/Tuesday light snowfall possibility. The Euro at 12z brings very light QPF to the area. NAM has not been enthused, nor has the GFS. Moving forward, we continue to carefully watch the stratospheric warming and its effects on the Pacific and Atlantic moving forward. Interesting few weeks ahead. I don't remember the last time there were this many differences within the 48 hour range... at least the potential for flakes is actually there. It's obvious that the pattern is terrible when a possible very light snow event in mid January is actually getting attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 in the new age of weather extremes, would not be surprised to switch this pattern on a dime with something very big. May not be in the next ten days, but I really feel something big on the horizon, just a gut thing. Big weenie there and I should probably put it in banter but hey, something to rally the troops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 in the new age of weather extremes, would not be surprised to switch this pattern on a dime with something very big. May not be in the next ten days, but I really feel something big on the horizon, just a gut thing. Big weenie there and I should probably put it in banter but hey, something to rally the troops. i was just thinking that the superstorm of 93' happened when that winter was generally a clunker, not saying to that extreme but its certainly possible we could get something big to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't remember the last time there were this many differences within the 48 hour range... at least the potential for flakes is actually there. It's obvious that the pattern is terrible when a possible very light snow event in mid January is actually getting attention. Sometimes on larger scale systems we've seen this, its odd that on such a weak wave overall there are differences like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 i was just thinking that the superstorm of 93' happened when that winter was generally a clunker, not saying to that extreme but its certainly possible we could get something big to happen That was an epic winter for most of the NE though, places like Westchester and Danbury had like 50 inches of snow, it just sucked near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I'll take 24" in a 6 week period again like that winter That was an epic winter for most of the NE though, places like Westchester and Danbury had like 50 inches of snow, it just sucked near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 i was just thinking that the superstorm of 93' happened when that winter was generally a clunker, not saying to that extreme but its certainly possible we could get something big to happen NYC area missed a great winter by just a few miles in 92-93. It wasn't great, but it wasn't a total clunker either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That was an epic winter for most of the NE though, places like Westchester and Danbury had like 50 inches of snow, it just sucked near the coast. true the difference between what side of the hutchinson river parkway your on determined how much snow you got lollll. im on the coast and i dont have alot of knowledge of the 92/93 winter. the coastal areas always have the battleground as far as rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro ensembles looks GREAT!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro ensembles looks GREAT!!!!!!!! we really gotta get this pattern change underway so we can get the excitement back in this forum. theres literally like nothing good to track and talk about. the tension is building!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 There were 3 3 to 5' events just west of NYC. The first one ushered in the first arctic outbreak of the winter in early February. Mid Feb we got a slopfest and then a decent 4-5" event towards the end of the month. I believe there was a pretty big storm for the interior in early March and just when it looked like winter might be over the Superstorm started showing up on models. It would end up being the first 12"+ snow for many areas since Feb '83. A few days after the blizzard we had another 2" event or so for me I had roughly 28" of snow from 2/5 - 3/17. Previously to that we had the tail end of the great 92 storm where areas away from the coast changed to snow. There was one minor event in January but that was it. true the difference between what side of the hutchinson river parkway your on determined how much snow you got lollll. im on the coast and i dont have alot of knowledge of the 92/93 winter. the coastal areas always have the battleground as far as rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro ensembles looks GREAT!!!!!!!! By day 10 you can see the gradient pattern setting up. It wouldn't take much of a rise in the PNA to get a piece of the colder air to come south from Canada. Hard to tell how the amplification would play out just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 By day 10 you can see the gradient pattern setting up. It wouldn't take much of a rise in the PNA to get a piece of the colder air to come south from Canada. Hard to tell how the amplification would play out just yet. they get much better after that, I have them to 360 with a full spread of goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The Nam also went north with tomorrow's little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Can you post a link to it please, I seem to have lost mine. sorry man, pay site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 The Nam also went north with tomorrow's little system. H7 RH fields get fairly moist up to CNJ, and the timing would work well, 00z-06z, for very light accumulation if it trended north. Would be funny if the one time the SE ridge isn't underestimated is with this wave. And by funny I mean disturbing in a pathetic, twisted type way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 sorry man, pay site. Nevermind, I found the link. Thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 they get much better after that, I have them to 360 with a full spread of goodies. What does Alaska look like beyond 240 hrs on them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 What does Alaska look like beyond 240 hrs on them? Same shape as always with a chain of islands coming out from the mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18Z RGEM has light precip coming into the area late tomorrow night although it may not be snow if the crystallization process is not optimized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 What does Alaska look like beyond 240 hrs on them? there is ridging but it gets pushed back west however the atlantic really starts to improve. Atlantic IMHO is far more important right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18Z GFS is too far South again for the light snow possibility. The Euro solution is doubtfull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 there is ridging but it gets pushed back west however the atlantic really starts to improve. Atlantic IMHO is far more important right now. Thanks, that's what the GFS is suggesting in AK also. I would like to see a change first in the 6-10 on the Atlantic side to believe it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 18Z GFS is too far South again for the light snow possibility. The Euro solution is doubtfull. euro's ensembles completely agree with it, not smart to doubt it especially when nam is now inching north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Euro ensembles looks GREAT!!!!!!!! That is not what the pro mets are saying: That's going to be a heck of a gradient pattern on the EC ensembles and potential nail biter at times .By the end of the run the entire pattern retrogrades... the omega block toward Kamchatka and the PV from Baffin Bay west into NW Territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 euro's ensembles completely agree with it, not smart to doubt it especially when nam is now inching north. I don't doubt that we will see a flurry or two, its the Euro prediction of a slushy inch that I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 That is not what the pro mets are saying: That's going to be a heck of a gradient pattern on the EC ensembles and potential nail biter at times .By the end of the run the entire pattern retrogrades... the omega block toward Kamchatka and the PV from Baffin Bay west into NW Territories. I know what they are saying, its my opinion the atlantic is more important, and its clearly improving on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 I don't doubt that we will see a flurry or two, its the Euro prediction of a slushy inch that I doubt. It's not only the euro showing it. The Euro ensembles , ggem, and now the sref and nam are trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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