POWERSTROKE Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 He actually was talking southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 From JB this morning: The heart of the blus is back over New England to the mid atlantic on the new run. That has been my major point! and given what lurks behind, the pattern i s setting up for some eastern cold and snow threats to open the first couple of weeks of Jan He is jumping on is the MJO. It has been in 4 and 5, and that was my mistake from the preseason run up ( did not catch it till the last Dec forecast which was warm in the lakes and northeast and cold in the southwest) but its heading into the igloo and may reach phases 8,1 and 2 which are bolder with the colder. Look for other forecast blogs to now start going MJO happy as they pick up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Here Comes Winter to the East.. for a while!!! Jb's take on the snow behind the front,It's a IDK yet....The anafront idea can also be seen on the JMA as it has the max quite a bit further south, but to be blunt, I cant tell if that will be the case until I see what the trough looks like once into the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Yesterday on Twitter he said weak to moderate Nino next year. I hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 He thnks it will get him epic amounts of subscribers. Actualyl I heard JB say 2 years ago that he felt like we would be having winters like "the great winters of the 60's and 70's" in the upcoming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 Actualyl I heard JB say 2 years ago that he felt like we would be having winters like "the great winters of the 60's and 70's" in the upcoming years. your right starting next winter. Robert has said samething Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 JB likes the JMA model on upcoming pattern week 2 starts the warming and weeks3 and 4 is warm in the southeast. Not any good signs from JB on turning this train wreck around.... We have to wait till next year, But cold can not hold in this pattern and in fact in spite of the impressive alley of low heights, the fire hose off the Pacific leads to the model seeing these temps, The TCM then dumps the trough into the west and we finally get to the La nina pattern!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 JB likes the JMA model on upcoming pattern week 2 starts the warming and weeks3 and 4 is warm in the southeast. Not any good signs from JB on turning this train wreck around.... We have to wait till next year, But cold can not hold in this pattern and in fact in spite of the impressive alley of low heights, the fire hose off the Pacific leads to the model seeing these temps, The TCM then dumps the trough into the west and we finally get to the La nina pattern!!! Certainly an ugly pattern for sure. Right now the models are so unpredictable and the pattern so fluid, I'm not sure anyone knows what will happen other than to say, "It's La Nina. This is what a normal Ninal patterns looks like." CPC has the NAO going south aroung the 10th. If that holds, JB will be wrong. But granted, there are many, many factors pointing towards a warm pattern for the entirety of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Certainly an ugly pattern for sure. Right now the models are so unpredictable and the pattern so fluid, I'm not sure anyone knows what will happen other than to say, "It's La Nina. This is what a normal Ninal patterns looks like." CPC has the NAO going south aroung the 10th. If that holds, JB will be wrong. But granted, there are many, many factors pointing towards a warm pattern for the entirety of the winter. GFS doesn't look that warm. We get the cold wave next week, then a warm up late next week. But the warm up looks brief, thanks to another incoming west to east system, and behind that is seasonable cold, then we have another seasonable cold airmass right after atleast for NC-TN and points north (however the northeast might be more above norm. relative to respective normals). Then it depends on if the trough deepens out west or we have a huge bowl shaped trough over the nation with supressed flow..thats what GFS is showing. If thats the case, we'll turn super cold, but GFS doesn't really look warmer than normal by much through 16 days, the first half of January. So I wouldn't say this is a ugly pattern unless you believe the ECMWF weeklies. Which those , generally speaking , look warm from what I hear, but keep in mind we keep having cold shots. Its just that the cold shots are shorter and don't have quite the big departures as the warm shots have had, so the overall departure has been leaning on the + side. No sustained cold yet, thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 JB sure changes his mind enough. Just yesterday it was cold thru mid January, and from what I read a few threads back a few days ago, he changed his tune from a warm January in the East to a cold one,. .now back to his original. Apparently, he is waffling because of some conflicting signals(possible SSW/ Model projections, etc..), as have been some others recently. If It were a betting game, I would have to go with the odds and as of right now, they are stacked a little higher on the mild vs cold side, for the balance of the winter. I would say much higher for the mild based on a couple of the current main indices but, the possible lurking SSW along with the MJO and the QBO's possible effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 JB sure changes his mind enough. Just yesterday it was cold thru mid January, and from what I read a few threads back a few days ago, he changed his tune from a warm January in the East to a cold one,. .now back to his original. Apparently, he is waffling because of some conflicting signals(possible SSW/ Model projections, etc..), as have been some others recently. If It were a betting game, I would have to go with the odds and as of right now, they are stacked a little higher on the mild vs cold side, for the balance of the winter. I would say much higher for the mild based on a couple of the current main indices but, the possible lurking SSW along with the MJO and the QBO's possible effects. Another reason why I wouldn't pay to read his thoughts. They are, after all, his opinions that you are paying for. Kinda pointless. The weather is what it is, and there's really nothing we can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 JB sure changes his mind enough. Just yesterday it was cold thru mid January, and from what I read a few threads back a few days ago, he changed his tune from a warm January in the East to a cold one,. .now back to his original. Apparently, he is waffling because of some conflicting signals(possible SSW/ Model projections, etc..), as have been some others recently. If It were a betting game, I would have to go with the odds and as of right now, they are stacked a little higher on the mild vs cold side, for the balance of the winter. I would say much higher for the mild based on a couple of the current main indices but, the possible lurking SSW along with the MJO and the QBO's possible effects. I agree 100% with your post. Just two days ago he said this!!! He is jumping on is the MJO. It has been in 4 and 5, and that was my mistake from the preseason run up ( did not catch it till the last Dec forecast which was warm in the lakes and northeast and cold in the southwest) but its heading into the igloo and may reach phases 8,1 and 2 which are bolder with the colder. Look for other forecast blogs to now start going MJO happy as they pick up on this. He is def flopping like a fish out of water. He's going to end up this winter with a He's changed his mind so much last few days I can't keep up, I'm as confused as a termite in a yo yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I agree 100% with your post. Just two days ago he said this!!! He is jumping on is the MJO. It has been in 4 and 5, and that was my mistake from the preseason run up ( did not catch it till the last Dec forecast which was warm in the lakes and northeast and cold in the southwest) but its heading into the igloo and may reach phases 8,1 and 2 which are bolder with the colder. Look for other forecast blogs to now start going MJO happy as they pick up on this. He is def flopping like a fish out of water. He's going to end up this winter with a He's changed his mind so much last few days I can't keep up, I'm as confused as a termite in a yo yo. I think we are all confused...seems like when we think we may be headed for a lock on a certain solution, the models throw out something totally different....The GFS....as borrowed from another friend....looks like it threw up on itself....I can't remember the last time I consistantly could not find a fantasy storm on the 300+ GFS....not to mention a snow or ice icon on a 15 day accuweather forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 GFS doesn't look that warm. We get the cold wave next week, then a warm up late next week. But the warm up looks brief, thanks to another incoming west to east system, and behind that is seasonable cold, then we have another seasonable cold airmass right after atleast for NC-TN and points north (however the northeast might be more above norm. relative to respective normals). Then it depends on if the trough deepens out west or we have a huge bowl shaped trough over the nation with supressed flow..thats what GFS is showing. If thats the case, we'll turn super cold, but GFS doesn't really look warmer than normal by much through 16 days, the first half of January. So I wouldn't say this is a ugly pattern unless you believe the ECMWF weeklies. Which those , generally speaking , look warm from what I hear, but keep in mind we keep having cold shots. Its just that the cold shots are shorter and don't have quite the big departures as the warm shots have had, so the overall departure has been leaning on the + side. No sustained cold yet, thats for sure. Very true. In the same way the pattern rarely goes "wall-to-wall" cold, the flip is also very true. It's rare that it goes "wall-to-wall" warm. I tend to feel that the GFS may be underdoing the cold around mid-month. Based on my own gut feeling, that the trough deepens (in some form or fashion) into the huge bowl shape that you mentioned. However, based on the data alone I would say warm - except that the NAO is showing signs of going negative around mid-month. I am a big believer in the fact that many of today's weather models don't handle large scale cold outbreaks very well, i.e. they don't "see" the cold as well and how far south it goes due to the fact that the cold is so close to the ground. I think the pattern is ugly right now just because there are basically not storms to track and much less cold air than normal. However, I am not sold on the fact that late January will be warm either. The pattern looks blocky on the GFS. Overall, I do think the winter will be +3 to +4 for NE TN. The +4.7 will be next to impossible to erase for this month. Also, it seems the Euro weeklies tried to erroneously extend the cold last winter at one point, well into January. Computer models are notorious for extending patterns (cold or warm) past the actual flip. If this pattern flips, I don't know that the Euro weeklies will tell us first. If the cold does not come in January, this would seem to be one of those winters where a late season storm or spring storm becomes more plausible due to the cold being bottled-up over the pole. The cold will come this way at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 JB sure changes his mind enough. Just yesterday it was cold thru mid January, and from what I read a few threads back a few days ago, he changed his tune from a warm January in the East to a cold one,. .now back to his original. Apparently, he is waffling because of some conflicting signals(possible SSW/ Model projections, etc..), as have been some others recently. If It were a betting game, I would have to go with the odds and as of right now, they are stacked a little higher on the mild vs cold side, for the balance of the winter. I would say much higher for the mild based on a couple of the current main indices but, the possible lurking SSW along with the MJO and the QBO's possible effects. I think what is causing forecasters so much grief is that the atmosphere is not behaving like it did in the 1990s. Cold outbreaks are more common, but it's not like warm winters have gone awol either. The rainy La Nina is a great example. Nobody could have seen that coming - we just don't have those too often if ever. JB likes to pretty much go straight-up cold or straight-up warm. It's easy now to say the winter will be warm due to the departures in December being so big. However, where he is in a bind is that at some point this pattern is going to relax and it's quite possible it may get very cold. This is a pattern that is very difficult to forecast. At some point, it might be better to say, "I have absolutely no idea where this pattern is going to take us. There is no analog, or too few analog years, in which the SE is wet during a La Nina." I am growing more confident that it will get cold. But like I said in a previous post, that is not totally based in science. It's just a gut feeling that he GFS is not seeing how cold it gets mid month though it is sensing that the cold is heading south off the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Another reason why I wouldn't pay to read his thoughts. They are, after all, his opinions that you are paying for. Kinda pointless. The weather is what it is, and there's really nothing we can do about it. your right just like this board. Its all of our opinions. JB is everywhere but it is always funny how we bash him but yet if you look at all if the winter outlooks--not one has been right. Not defending him at all, As I have said Robert is he best I know especially in our area. I talked to Robert this week and told him the same thing. However when JB does miss he is the worse met of all time. I think he has flipped and flopped all week, but as I said when i started the topic these are his opinions. Several on the board ask what he says so I try to post them. I didn't start it so we all can start a bashing him, I just wanted to show his opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Joe relased this earlier to subscribers. Outlook for 2nd half of January. He shared it publicly on twitter this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Joe relased this earlier to subscribers. Outlook for 2nd half of January. He shared it publicly on twitter this morning. I am thinking the cold drops into the northern plains, and then pushes east from time to time. I would be surprised to see it lock into the West - but Euro and Nina climo support this I guess. I may be very wrong but I'm riding the GFS on this one. The Nina has not cooperated w/ climo yet (gets one aspect, either cold or dry past two years but not both). I actually like what I'm seeing for the upper South. Euro was Playing catch-up last year and it is my opinion it is doing so now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Next Tuesday will be the coldest day this winter, enjoy it peeps. I havent stopped golfing this year. 70 down here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I am thinking the cold drops into the northern plains, and then pushes east from time to time. I would be surprised to see it lock into the West - but Euro and Nina climo support this I guess. I may be very wrong but I'm riding the GFS on this one. The Nina has not cooperated w/ climo yet (gets one aspect, either cold or dry past two years but not both). I actually like what I'm seeing for the upper South. Euro was Playing catch-up last year and it is my opinion it is doing so now. I agree, I watched his video today and he did say that there would be cold intrusions in the se in this time period. Sure like his map shows we might average above normal, but that don't mean we can't gets some cold shots in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 I agree, I watched his video today and he did say that there would be cold intrusions in the se in this time period. Sure like his map shows we might average above normal, but that don't mean we can't gets some cold shots in between. he said he was confident on the pattern today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 What happened to his cold Dec? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 What happened to his cold Dec? What happened to everybody's cold December. Nobody got it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 What happened to everybody's cold December. Nobody got it right Except for Roger Smith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Except for Roger Smith lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Except for Roger Smith Yep, Roger is looking good so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I agree, I watched his video today and he did say that there would be cold intrusions in the se in this time period. Sure like his map shows we might average above normal, but that don't mean we can't gets some cold shots in between. I'm thinking we are going to see enough cold to keep most of us happy. The warm days, as Foothills mentioned, are very warm and skew the temps a bit, i.e. you coud have 4-5 days at -1 and 1 day at +16 and the average will be warm. I am going to say that 35-40% of the days will be below at KTRI and roughly that many above. I don't think there will be much in between. I think KTRI will be above temp wise for the month, +2 roughly. However, I think the cold will have more of an impact than I had originally thought. What to look out for, if that cold stays bottled up, is a cold later winter and early spring. This year has late season storm written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 boy JB has been changing mind every day but one thing he has been saying for a few weeks is what the gfs may be getting ready to show us. Robert said it may be showing all cold going west. JB has said all winter NW USA will have the worse as far as snow and if gfs goes that route then JB s right. Not good for us, lets hope it was a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 boy JB has been changing mind every day but one thing he has been saying for a few weeks is what the gfs may be getting ready to show us. Robert said it may be showing all cold going west. JB has said all winter NW USA will have the worse as far as snow and if gfs goes that route then JB s right. Not good for us, lets hope it was a hiccup I don't see how the 18z run was anything but a hiccup. If not then it's ensembles better play catch-up at 0z tonight. Here are the 18z AO index from the ensemble. Strong - AO. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/18zensindices.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 I don't see how the 18z run was anything but a hiccup. If not then it's ensembles better play catch-up at 0z tonight. Here are the 18z AO index from the ensemble. Strong - AO. http://raleighwx.ame...ensindices.html I agree but when Robert posted a concern that is a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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