stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Yes, I think this pretty much tells us the NAM is WRONG! I would think the nam is over done on the cold air for Poconos and southern new York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looking @ the 12z EC is like deja vu in regards to Dec. 8 event.. The NAM is way too cold for these parts.. Would not surprise me if the models are not done adjusting northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 12Z GFS has more semblance of a Xmas event than the Euro because it does not hang back the southern stream disturbance in the SW U.S., it "phases" slightly better but the real problem is more the southern system shears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 12z ECMWF brings a storm on 12/28, it passes to our south and is warm. It actually wouldn't take much for this to get more interesting. I think all that would be needed is for the northern stream to dig more and phase with the energy that is being left behind in the southern stream. Instead the northern stream helps to knock down the ridge thats in place along the coast initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 The 12Z GFS has more semblance of a Xmas event than the Euro because it does not hang back the southern stream disturbance in the SW U.S., it "phases" slightly better but the real problem is more the southern system shears out. Any smaller? The Euro now shows a miller B for NNE on Christmas. I think this is the 1st time any model showed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 For what ever it is worth the continued spc 4km NMM model has the rain snow line crashing with Fridays system. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPRAD4_12z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JMA for the Christmas storm with the 850's plenty cold. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 JMA for the Christmas storm with the 850's plenty cold. http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif Not comparing, but wasn't the JMA the first model to bring back the Boxing Day Blizzard even before the GFS initialization error run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 WRF-ARW looks almost identical to the NAM also. Interesting. For what ever it is worth the continued spc 4km NMM model has the rain snow line crashing with Fridays system. http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 WRF-ARW looks almost identical to the NAM also. Interesting. ARW is slightly warmer than the Nam. The NMM looks more like the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I did not watch it back then, but it has done fairly well as of late and is currently #3 in terms of verification at 5 days behind only the Euro and UKMET Not comparing, but wasn't the JMA the first model to bring back the Boxing Day Blizzard even before the GFS initialization error run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 WRF-ARW looks almost identical to the NAM also. Interesting. All these models have a NAM type initialization and NAM data. Its common to see them similar to eachother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ukie for the Christmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Looks nearly identical to me, must be really close. Has from Rt. 78-80 north below freezing at the 850 level the entire storm. ARW is slightly warmer than the Nam. The NMM looks more like the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wish we had some precip maps. Oh well. Can't really tell much from this. Ukie for the Christmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Ukie for the Christmas storm Similar to Euro. Terrible ridge alignment and placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Are they really that closely tied to the NAM? What is interesting to me is that they are all high resolution models, so they should be performing well, but if they are tied to the NAM, they can all be crap too. All these models have a NAM type initialization and NAM data. Its common to see them similar to eachother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Similar to Euro. Terrible ridge alignment and placement. The Ukie has the low much further south than the Euro. The Euro has a miller B which the Ukie don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Similar to Euro. Terrible ridge alignment and placement. You need a massive storm to get it up the coast in a setup with the ridge that far east and also that shallow out West across the Plains. I'd lean towards a near miss now for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Wish we had some precip maps. Oh well. Can't really tell much from this. you can tell plenty, its a fail, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You need a massive storm to get it up the coast in a setup with the ridge that far east and also that shallow out West across the Plains. I'd lean towards a near miss now for sure. Agree still interesting to watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I am not saying you are wrong, but you have a very strong opinion when we have absolutely no precip maps to tell us anything. you can tell plenty, its a fail, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I am not saying you are wrong, but you have a very strong opinion when we have absolutely no precip maps to tell us anything. there is nothing about that 500mb map or the surface map to the right showing a weak 1012 low out in the middle of the ocean to suggest that there is any precip worthy of mention also, i would imagine the surface is an unmitigated torch with no fresh high pressure and no snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Another look at the Ukie. It's way offshore but at least there is a storm on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You are probably right, just saying that I am not sure you can be certain. Are you a lawyer by trade? there is nothing about that 500mb map or the surface map to the right showing a weak 1012 low out in the middle of the ocean to suggest that there is any precip worthy of mention also, i would imagine the surface is an unmitigated torch with no fresh high pressure and no snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 SREFS have followed the NAM in the slp placement for Friday's system but its very toasty at the surface and barely cold enough at 850 for the area. More rain. Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 SREFS have followed the NAM in the slp placement for Friday's system but its very toasty at the surface and barely cold enough at 850 for the area. More rain. Joy. Though I am banking on rain for just about everyone the sref ensembles have not been to great lately. though interesting to see them shift south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Maybe the Euro was right to have a Christmas storm at first. Sounds like some things to watch at least in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 this run of the NAM is going to look like all the other models I believe. You can already see the cold push at the 850 level is not there like the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 this run of the NAM is going to look like all the other models I believe. You can already see the cold push at the 850 level is not there like the last run no, it looks pretty much like the 12z, in fact, its surface low may be s and e of where it was at 12z. and not that it matters too much, but the old eta continues to cool. I would let the run play out to see if you get cold, colder, or coldest rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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