OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

[The Waterboy]

18z GFS shows a monster storm for southern MO and Northern ARK around 300 hours.  I can't help myself from looking.  I'm addicted...

[JoMo]

18z GFS shows a monster storm for southern MO and Northern ARK around 300 hours.  I can't help myself from looking.  I'm addicted...

 

yeah, around the 10th or so. That's been showing up from time to time, but I'd like to see a little more consistency before I consider it a threat. 

[BryanB]

Well after not receiving any snowfall to speak of in Kansas City last winter…and a slow start this year we sure have made up for it in the last 7 days. On Feb 21-22 winter storm we received 11 inches of snowfall here in western Wyandotte County Kansas and then on Feb 25-27 we received another whopping 12.5 inches of snowfall for a grand total of 23.5 inches of snowfall. I believe according to the folks at the weather forecast office that this makes it our snowiest 7-day period on record and our second snowiest February on record. This should surely help with the drought that we have been dealing with since April of last year. Also, as rare as thundersnow is we received it with both winter storms across the entire Kansas City area, unfortunately this most recent storm was a very wet heavy snowfall and brought down numerous trees and power lines and left approximately 120K in the dark.

[NwWhiteOut]

Man this has been one cold snowy week! snowing here again, picked up another dusting so far and its still coming down

[JoMo]

yeah, flurries all day, pretty nice.

[NwWhiteOut]

yeah, flurries all day, pretty nice.

Its nice to see for once isnt I got about 3/4 of an inch though that mainly just accumulated on top of what snow I had on the ground where the temps were below freezing still. What do you think jomo, you think thats it for the season now? I've had my share and fun it was nice to actually see something

[JoMo]

Its nice to see for once isnt I got about 3/4 of an inch though that mainly just accumulated on top of what snow I had on the ground where the temps were below freezing still. What do you think jomo, you think thats it for the season now? I've had my share and fun it was nice to actually see something

 

I think that might be it, but you never know. One big storm system tracking south with enough cold air around and we end up with a lot of snow again. It doesn't look like that will happen at this time though.

 

I had thundersnow, large flakes, and a decent accumulation so overall, I'd give this winter a D- for here. An F for NW Arkansas.

 

Sorry guys

[MoWeatherguy]

The system around the 10th still has my interest, albeit not as much as a few days ago.  All it needs is a little more cold air pulled in or manufactured and it could be a nice winter storm for somebody close by.

[The Waterboy]

Is there a grade lower than F? If this winter were a movie it would be Winter's Bone.

I did just go to the gas station and its snowing pretty big flakes. Almost a dusting on the road. It's sad that's about the extent of this winter.

[NwWhiteOut]

Its been pretty lousy but i really cant complain as Im doing better this week then I did all last winter season. Im close to probly 9.5-10" now for this season. Last year I think I had a total of like 3" lol. I usually keep track with notepad in windows cause I got short term memory and cant remember squat lol.

 

And sorry waterboy thats gotta suck! You guys just cant catch a break down there, I guess thats probly what I have to look forward to once I move down that way huh lol

 

On a side note springfields late night disco mentioning something about tuesday afternoon through evening northwest of i-44 again, rain over to snow I believe it said

[My Weather Today]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
200 PM CST THU MAR 07 2013

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS A
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHICH IS WHOLLY LOCATED WITHIN THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. IT ENCOMPASSES AN AREA WHICH INCLUDES THE WHITE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM BULL SHOALS DAM DOWNSTREAM...THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES FROM OZARK LOCK AND DAM DOWNSTREAM...AND THE OUACHITA
RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES FROM THE HEADWATERS TO THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF
THE FELSENTHAL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE. ALONG WITH THE MAIN STEM OF
THESE RIVERS...IT ALSO INCLUDES TRIBUTARIES WITH FORECAST LOCATIONS
ON THE CACHE...BLACK...SPRING...SALINE...PETIT JEAN...FOURCHE
LAFAVE...LITTLE MISSOURI...BUFFALO...LITTLE RED...MULBERRY...AND
ELEVEN POINT RIVERS.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

RAINFALL - AT THE START OF THE WINTER SEASON MOST OF ARKANSAS WAS IN
A RAINFALL DEFICIT. HOWEVER A FEW WINTER STORMS AND RAINFALL EVENTS
LATER ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE CLIMBED BACK NEAR TO
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.

SOIL MOISTURE - SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE
LAST FEW MONTHS...RANKING NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL OF ARKANSAS EXCEPT IN
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THE DRIEST SOIL RESIDES IN THE
UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER WEST OF THE
ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WHERE IT RANKS IN THE 10TH PERCENTILE.

RIVER FLOWS AND RESERVOIRS - MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE
WHITE RIVER BASIN...BROUGHT ON BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. IN
RESPONSE THIS HAS BROUGHT STREAMFLOW UP TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN MOSTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE FLOOD CONTROL
RESERVOIRS KEEPING THEM BELOW SEASONAL CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS FOR
THE UPPER WHITE BASIN. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF
MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW. THESE PERCENTAGES ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THIS
TIME LAST YEAR...BUT STILL ABOUT AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE SPRING.

                                             3/7
BLACK RIVER               BLACK ROCK AR     113%
WHITE RIVER                  NEWPORT AR     107%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
BLACK AND WHITE BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE
FOR THE BLACK/WHITE BASIN RESERVOIRS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/7
                     BULL SHOALS RES. AR    100%
                         NORFORK RES. AR    100%
                    GREERS FERRY RES. AR     97%

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN WESTERN ARKANSAS USUALLY OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL OF THIS AREA.

OBSERVED FLOW ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF PINE
BLUFF IS CURRENTLY NEAR 36000 CFS WHICH IS 47 PERCENT OF NORMAL
COMPARED TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGE OF 76000 CFS FOR EARLY MARCH.
BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
LOWER ARKANSAS BASIN.

ALTHOUGH 15 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR...STREAMFLOWS
ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE UPPER SECTIONS OF THE OUACHITA BASIN.
OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS GENERALLY NORMAL. AT THIS TIME NO
FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE OUACHITA RIVER BASIN. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS
A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/7
OUACHITA RIVER                 CAMDEN AR     45%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
OUACHITA RIVER BASINS. PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                             3/7
                        LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
                          DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
                         LAKE GREESON AR    100%


...METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE 30-DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH EQUAL CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 90-DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS OUTLOOK ENCOMPASSES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL SPRING
MONTHS OF MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY. IN ARKANSAS...NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THESE 3 MONTHS OF SPRING VARIES BETWEEN 14 AND
18 INCHES.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF MARCH 7 INDICATES WESTERN ARKANSAS
IS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WESTERN
ARKANSAS IS DRIER THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THE CPC US SEASONAL
DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF MARCH 7 INDICATES THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. HOWEVER THE CPC
DOES ALLOW SOME ROOM FOR POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE SEVERE DROUGHT
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

...CONCLUSION...

OVER THE WINTER MONTHS THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI BASINS BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT ALLOWED SNOW DEPTHS
TO ACCUMULATE TO SIGNIFICANT DEPTHS. AS LONG AS SNOW MELT REMAINS
GRADUAL OVER THE COMING MONTHS THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING DOWNSTREAM.

OVERALL THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATORS THAT SUGGEST AN OVERLY WET OR
SEVERELY DRY SPRING. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT RAINFALL AVERAGES FOR
MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY ARE GENERALLY THE THREE WETTEST MONTHS OF
THE YEAR...SOME LEVEL OF FLOODING CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT THE SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES OF THE MAIN
STEM RIVERS.

IN AN AVERAGE SPRING SEASON PERIODS OF HIGHLY CONVECTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HIGH QUANTITIES OF RAINFALL GENERALLY OCCUR
FROM TIME TO TIME IN A SHORT PERIOD AND OVER SMALLER WATERSHEDS.
LOCALIZED...HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL CAN CREATE FLASH FLOODING AT ANY
TIME...EVEN DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT. THIS SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK DEFINES LONG TERM RIVER FLOODING...AND DOES NOT ASSESS THE
RISK OF SHORT TERM FLOODING.

THE SPRING POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS A ROUTINE PRODUCT. SHOULD EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL BECOME PART OF THE FORECAST AT ANY OTHER TIME OF THE
YEAR...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH EVENT SPECIFIC
INFORMATION. ALSO LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLOOD WATCHES.
IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO REMAIN SITUATIONALLY AWARE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...FORECAST...AND WARNINGS
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST DATA CAN BE OBTAINED BY SELECTING THE
RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK UNDER THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SECTION.

 

[My Weather Today]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 PM CST THU MAR 7 2013

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS
SPRING. FLOODING IN THIS AREA USUALLY OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO
SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. MANY CURRENT HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS
REFLECT THE LONG-TERM DROUGHT THAT HAS GRIPPED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS...BUT RECENT PRECIPITATION EVENTS HAVE
SHIFTED OTHER INDICATORS CLOSER TO NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WATER-YEAR /OCTOBER-FEBRUARY/ RAINFALL TOTALS ARE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE
REGION HAS GOTTEN AROUND 50 TO AROUND 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING /MAR-
APR-MAY/ CALLS FOR GREATLY INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW AND NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
THREE MONTHS.

ACCORDING TO CPC...SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTING LONG TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE DOMINATED THE REGION. MOST OF THE AREA IS
BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 30TH PERCENTILES.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
RUNNING AT NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE RED RIVER IS EXPERIENCING EXTREMELY
LOW FLOWS THAT ARE BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF LONG TERM DATA FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RIVERS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF
OKLAHOMA AND IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE
APPROXIMATING MORE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN IN
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN OKLAHOMA IS WELL BELOW CONSERVATION STORAGE
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. IN THE AGGREGATE...THE
RESERVOIRS IN OKLAHOMA HAVE 110 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE ARKANSAS
SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 110 PERCENT OF DESIGNED FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE. AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 113 PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE. BEAVER
LAKE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS 124 PERCENT OF DESIGNED FLOOD
CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF MARCH 5 INDICATES THAT EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE EXPERIENCING SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. EXTREME DROUGHT WAS AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA...PAWNEE...CREEK...TULSA...AND
PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PERSISTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE CPC U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF MARCH 7
INDICATES THE NEXT THREE MONTHS SHOULD NOT SEE ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
DROUGHT-RELATED CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

 

[Wx 24/7]

I love the rolling thunder with a gentle rain as I sleep. This is great weather! Not as good as a winter snowstorm, but I will take it.

[JoMo]

Yeah, I can handle thunder much better now. Joplin Globe had an article today that said we would have a 'near normal' severe weather season this year. 

 

I think our first shot at severe weather will probably be sometime late March. I remain a little concerned due to the ongoing drought to the west of us and the recent rains we have had. Unless OK and KS get a lot of rain soon, that may allow the dryline to push farther east that usual which usually means we get more severe weather. 

 

My GREarth subscription runs out in April. I think I'll probably just get the $10 Allisonhouse sub. for GRLevel 3 since anything I looked at in GREarth has an AH placefile probably. 

[MoWeatherguy]

Wonderful rain event here the past 24 hrs or so.  Up to 2.05 inches in the gauge.  Ground is getting pretty saturated.

[NwWhiteOut]

A little over 2.5" of rain here fell from the heavier ammounts in the thunderstorms last night. Whole yard is flooded out as well as the stream back there. All the melting snowpack didnt help any.

[JoMo]

00z Euro thought it would be fun to throw a big winter storm at us for most of the area (even NW Arkansas) after hour 132 or so. 

[jcwxguy]

00z Euro thought it would be fun to throw a big winter storm at us for most of the area (even NW Arkansas) after hour 132 or so. 

I saw that, even gives me a solid 4-8" lol

[MoWeatherguy]

In this back-loaded winter nothing would surprise me. The Euro does appear a little extreme, though.

[FSMweather]

I'm completely over winter down here. I have been doing some fishing with this nice spring-like weather. 

[JoMo]

12z GFS would even have some snow.

[brettjrob]

From the 16/00z ECMWF, courtesy Jeff Piotrowski. Simply revolting.

 

[JoMo]

Revolting? it's great looking  

 

Of course I know you're ready for some storms, though.

[MoWeatherguy]

GFS on board now lol:

 

 

 

[JoMo]

So uh...

 

 

[NwWhiteOut]

Yep just seen that also jomo lol, wow what the hell....In the zone for 6'+ allready, will have to wait and see. This is gonna be one of those fast hitting stick for a few hours then flood melting late season snows it looks like....well I was ready for spring lol

[JoMo]

Yep just seen that also jomo lol, wow what the hell....In the zone for 6'+ allready, will have to wait and see. This is gonna be one of those fast hitting stick for a few hours then flood melting late season snows it looks like....well I was ready for spring lol

 

yeah it appears they are going with the Euro depiction as this lines up well with what the Euro is showing, almost exactly. Euro and GFS are bringing another piece of energy out on Saturday evening which may give even a little more light snow.

 

Where was this stuff in December!?

[MoWeatherguy]

Need thermal profiles to come in a bit colder for those of us on the southern extent, which could happen no doubt.  Moisture doesnt appear to be a problem with this storm.  18z NAM coming in colder.

[JoMo]

Doug Cramer is pretty gung-ho about this storm. He's been pretty 'meh' most of this winter.

 

SGF AFD this afternoon.

 

 

WINTER STORM THURSDAY - FRIDAY:WE HAVE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT AIRMASSES THAT WILL BE COLLIDING WITHONE ANOTHER OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI ONTHURSDAY.AN USUALLY COLD AIRMASS WAS POSITIONED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THEDAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  MEANWHILE...GULF BUOYS WERE MEASURINGDEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS MOISTURESOURCE REGION.BOTH THE CANADIAN AIR...AND THE GULF AIR...WITH TRACK TOWARDS THEOZARKS THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE RESULT BEING A LATE WINTER SNOWSTORM.  I FULLY EXPECT A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW WITH THISINTERACTION...AS THIS WINTER STORM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLETO IT...THAN ANY OTHER WINTER STORM WE`VE HAD ALL YEAR.  TREMENDOUSMOISTURE.ALSO...WE ARE BECOMING CONFIDENT WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE BEINGMOSTLY SNOW...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AIRMASS.WE HAD THOROUGH DISCUSSIONS WITH WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTICS THIS MORNINGREGARDING MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEY HIGHLY SUGGESTEDLEANING THE THURSDAY FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF...SINCE IT`S BEEN THEMOST CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.THE ECMWF HAS ALSO BEEN THE COLDEST...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THEAIRMASS TO THE NORTH.  THE CANADIAN MODEL`S MASS FIELDS LOOK VERYSIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDTHESE TWO SOLUTIONS.WE THINK LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FORT SCOTT KANSASTO FAIR GROVE...TO EMINENCE MISSOURI WILL RECEIVE THE GREATESTCHANCES FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW 6 INCHES OR MORE.LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMABORDERS...SINCE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE COULD BE POSITIONED ACROSSSOUTHERN MISSOURI OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS.A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE SNOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE POSSIBLY PICKING UP AGAIN SATURDAYAFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.  SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AREPOSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...BUT WE`LL GET MOREDETAILED WITH AMOUNTS IN COMING FORECASTS.CRAMER

 

 

Tulsa not so much but they mention the weekend system:

 

 

A SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLESTHURSDAY AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SWINGING EASTWARDSOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ANDRAIN IN RESPONSE TO THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMALACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY.PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND PARTS OFFRIDAY...WITH SOME THREAT OF A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZINGRAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW FOR AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURIBORDERS. THIS CHANGEOVER IS NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THIS FARSOUTH...THOUGH...WITH THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS CONTINUING TO LOOKMARGINAL. THE HIGHEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS SHOULDREMAIN NORTH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.OF MORE CONCERN ON THE WINTRY SIDE OF THINGS IS THE SYSTEM THATWILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS NEXT WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGEMODEL SUITE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVETHROUGH THE AREA...WITH COLD AIR ALREADY WELL ESTABLISHED. BOTHTHE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STRONGLY HINTING AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR AGOOD PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITHSATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE FAVORED TIMING. THE BIG QUESTION AT THISPOINT HAS LESS TO DO WITH THERMODYNAMICS THAN IT DOES HOW MUCHPRECIPITATION WILL FALL. HAVE GONE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITHFORECAST AMOUNTS DUE TO THIS QUESTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FORTHESE TO INCREASE IN FUTURE FORECASTS DEFINITELY EXISTS.

[MoWeatherguy]

I still think its a bit early to be throwing out numbers like that.  Still 3 days out.